Dion Waiters

[RF2044]

Bingo. All I am worried about is this kids head. If its screwed on right he succeeds. If not then he will be the same guy he was lastyear IMO.

Personally speaking, I hope [and expect] that ALL of the returning guards take a step forward this year. Because if they do, we're going to be awfully tough to defend.

And by the sounds of things, all three have worked exceptionally hard this offseason to position themselves for success. I was greatly encouraged by my Dad's description from the intersquad scrimmage he watched last week, where he observed that the guards were moving the ball quickly, that they seemed to be on the same page, that there was no evidence of selfishness from them, etc.

Backcourt consistency is a big question mark entering this season. How positively they answer that question will go a long way toward determining what this team's potential will be.

 

[senorpalmer]

Dion was surprising hot from the 3 in the OOC, after that he sucked. In the BEC, BT was 35% and DW was 26%. Neither is known as an outside shooter, but at least BT hit 40% in his frosh year (though, like DW, he was better in the OOC that season). BT clearly has the better stats, but neither is better than average at best. I hope you and your buddy Albany and Eyes are right about DW, and everyone else is right about BT, but my money is on MCW to be the star we want at SG - starting this season.

Was wondering if anyone was going to point this out. Triche got much better in conference play while Dion took a big step back. Triche is also on another level defensively. Dion's got raw talent, but last year against the meat of the schedule he was way behind Triche. I mean Dion shot .315 from the field OVERALL in conference play, yikes. That being said, his raw talent is still pretty obvious, if he can get past his mental mistakes and his emotional issues, his ceiling is high; at a minimum I expect him to be a potent reserve this coming year. The rotation as a whole is going to be trickier than in seasons past, with the backcourt being the trickiest of all. Boeheim's not one to play 4 guards typically, but he's got 4 awfully good options, two tried and true veterans and two very talented underclassmen. I'm just hoping there's no drama, and that we see the best options playing accordingly, whoever they may be.

 

[Oakland]

Triche skeptics think for some unapparent reason to me that he should be better than he is and shouldnt be granted time to develop. I dont recall DNic being a lights out shooter until his senior year. Why cant he be afforded the time to mature and develop? Triche just needs to build confidence in his abilities; there is no doubt in my mind that he worked hard at his game and improved in many areas (like KJo, he needs a mid-range pull-up jumper so he can avoid charges).

The difference between BT/DW and DNic is that DNic was a very successful 3pt shooter in HS. BT was maybe average and DW was poor. I suspect that DNic was damaged early at SU by JB's quick hook and it took him a long time to get over it.

 

[cortacuse]

Dion did play a good offensive game vs Marquette in the tourney... his defense was horrid at best... hope he has bought into the zone or it could be another season of these debates.

 

[Ghost]

I see. So they have virtually identical three point shooting percentages, but triche's misses were of a higher quality than DW misses?

Not that this thread is going anywhere good, but this was actually a pretty overused argument last year. That when Triche misses a three it's like a pass to our big men, but when Scoop or Dion miss it's points for the other team.

 

[albanycuse]

bt 's issues were all confidence related and those who defend him fail to see how slow he is with the ball and i just dont see him running the pg effectively whether he played it in hs or not is irrelevant and a bad example to compare it to d1 bball. he doesnt create for him self and drives to the wings to much and ends up holding the ball. he might be fast without the ball but not with in running a team and that just doesnt cut it with his skill set.
dions issues are he knows hes a stud and thinks he should be awarded the carmelo treatment but his attitude and coachability last season hurt him big time. hes tough, wants the ball and has the heart of a lion. he needs time to mature and develop into a star that i know he is. out of scoop , bt, and waiters i think dion is the only one with nba potential. his ceiling is high and can get better and better.

 

[TinyManInside]

I have a hard time looking at this roster and seeing a top 5 team if Scoop and Triche are both getting 30 minutes a night. I think both of these players are largely "what you see is what you get" players. They are good to very good college players, but not great, and certainly not the type of transcendant talents needed to win championships. Neither player, to date, has shown to be particularly gifted physically. Now if Triche has indeed improved his quickness and explosiveness, then perhaps he can make the next step up. But honestly I thought he was only marginally better as a SO than he was as a FR, and I question his ability to create his own shot due to lack of quickness (which also affects his shooting).

The bottom line is that for either Waiters or Triche to have breakout years, you're going to have to believe that they have made major improvements in areas of weakness (Triche quickness/speed/explosiveness, Waiters shooting/shot selection/sharing the ball).

Maybe they have, maybe they haven't. Until we see these guys at game speed against similar competition, that is nearly an impossible judgment to make.

The difference between practice speed and game speed is huge. Just ask Ethan Cole.

-mason

 

[TinyManInside]

You can't go by last year.

Why not? That's the only real game data that we have to judge by.

Practice is great, but what happens in practice doesn't always translate into what happens in games.

 

[TinyManInside]

Despite that they were pretty close to the same % from 3.

Anyway, I think the 33% for Triche is a little misleading. He shot 40% the year prior. Somewhere in the middle is probably more fair.

Actually I think the 40% is more misleading than the 33%. In 09-10, he got nothing but wide open looks because he was playing on an unselfish team with legitimate inside and outside threats. And he had that anomalous 6-6 game where he torched Oakland, take that game out and his numbers look pretty much the same from year to year.

I'm not really sold on him as a shooter. His footwork is a little sloppy and he tends to lean into his shot. Balance is soooo important to shooting and it is largely overlooked. His hand placement, release, and rotation isn't bad, but it's not particularly quick either, which is a problem against good defensive teams.

I will say that he made improvements in setting his base and getting his balance towards the end of last season. Hopefully he continues to improve.

-mason

 

[Orangeyes]

Why not? That's the only real game data that we have to judge by.

Practice is great, but what happens in practice doesn't always translate into what happens in games.

Because they both have changed so much physically and both have been hard at work improving their areas of weakness.

 

[RF2044]

\. Now if Triche has indeed improved his quickness and explosiveness, then perhaps he can make the next step up. But honestly I thought he was only marginally better as a SO than he was as a FR, and I question his ability to create his own shot due to lack of quickness (which also affects his shooting).

-mason

Wow, usually you are spot on with your assessments, but I don't agree with that assessment at all, Mason. Freshman year, Triche played really well and compiled a bunch of statistics early, and then really struggled when things shifted to the much more competitive Big East portion of the schedule.

Last year, Triche got out of the gates incredibly slowly and performed atrociously, and then took his play up a notch once thing shifted to the more competitive Big East portion of the schedule, becoming way more consistent against a higher level of competition.

Which is why while the numbers / stats between the two years might be comparable, the context behind them wasn't remotely similar between freshman and sophomore years. The quality of Triche's contributions was much higher last year against superior competition--not even close.

Just my two cents.

 

[TinyManInside]

Pro-rated to 40 minutes of play:

Freshman Year: 15.2 ppg / 3.4 rbg / 5.2 apg / 1.4 A:T ratio / 1.69 st / 50% FG / 40% 3Pt / 63.4% FT%
Sophomore Year: 15.4 ppg / 3.7 rbg / 4.0 apg / 1.38 A:T ratio / 1.11 st / 41.9% FG / 33.3% 3Pt / 84.2% FT%

That looks like pretty much the exact same player to me, other than a decrease in assists (explained by less minutes at PG and less offensive firepower on last year's team), steals, and shooting from the field and the 3 point line. But he did improve considerably as a free throw shooter.

Basically he was on the court 7.5 minutes more per game.

I'm not playing favorites. I would be thrilled if Brandon is the best player on the team, because that would mean we have chance to field a GREAT team. But I haven't seen a developmental curve that leads me to believe he's going to explode this year, unless he is indeed considerably more athletic than he's shown in the past.

 

[TinyManInside]

All advanced metrics of efficiency like Triche, finding a statistical match with Nolan Smith, Eric Bledsoe, and Malcolm Delaney. Most every advanced metric gives Triche a higher grade than Jardine and Dion.

This is incorrect. Using the exact source that you quote, if you compare the 3 players, Scoop's ORTg and %Poss is appreciably higher than Triche's. FR Dion and SO Triche are essentially a wash.

Comparing the Syracuse Guards with Kenpom's Numbers

 

[RF2044]

Pro-rated to 40 minutes of play:

Freshman Year: 15.2 ppg / 3.4 rbg / 5.2 apg / 1.4 A:T ratio / 1.69 st / 50% FG / 40% 3Pt / 63.4% FT%
Sophomore Year: 15.4 ppg / 3.7 rbg / 4.0 apg / 1.38 A:T ratio / 1.11 st / 41.9% FG / 33.3% 3Pt / 84.2% FT%

That looks like pretty much the exact same player to me, other than a decrease in assists (explained by less minutes at PG and less offensive firepower on last year's team), steals, and shooting from the field and the 3 point line. But he did improve considerably as a free throw shooter.

Basically he was on the court 7.5 minutes more per game.

I'm not playing favorites. I would be thrilled if Brandon is the best player on the team, because that would mean we have chance to field a GREAT team. But I haven't seen a developmental curve that leads me to believe he's going to explode this year, unless he is indeed considerably more athletic than he's shown in the past.

I don't dispute that on the surface, the numbers look similar--I stated as much above.

But there was a big difference between Brandon's ability to contribute against good teams when he was a freshman compared to his sophomore season, as demonstrated by the distribution of his statistics his two years. Judge for yourself [you can toggle between the 09-10 season and 10-11 for comparison]:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/46156/brandon-triche

 

[Oakland]

Wow, usually you are spot on with your assessments, but I don't agree with that assessment at all, Mason. Freshman year, Triche played really well and compiled a bunch of statistics early, and then really struggled when things shifted to the much more competitive Big East portion of the schedule.

Last year, Triche got out of the gates incredibly slowly and performed atrociously, and then took his play up a notch once thing shifted to the more competitive Big East portion of the schedule, becoming way more consistent against a higher level of competition.

Which is why while the numbers / stats between the two years might be comparable, the context behind them wasn't remotely similar between freshman and sophomore years. The quality of Triche's contributions was much higher last year against superior competition--not even close.

Just my two cents.

The Padawan breaks with his master. Mason did RF get promoted to Saline Knight or has he been seduced by the Scarlet (Knight) side?

 

[albanycuse]

Who needs stats to determine whos the better guards on the team? Not me. Stats sometimes hide the facts when a player disappeared in certain games and credits them for garbage time stat stuffers. There should be a stat meter for confidence and potential.

 

[RF2044]

Who needs stats to determine whos the better guards on the team? Not me. Stats sometimes hide the facts when a player disappeared in certain games and credits them for garbage time stat stuffers. There should be a stat meter for confidence and potential.

Okay, Bob Lichtenfeld*!

*That reference is only going to make sense to those who've posted on the football board for awhile, and are familiar with Bob / his outlandish claim from a few years ago.

 

[orangehomer]

Wow, usually you are spot on with your assessments, but I don't agree with that assessment at all, Mason. Freshman year, Triche played really well and compiled a bunch of statistics early, and then really struggled when things shifted to the much more competitive Big East portion of the schedule.

Last year, Triche got out of the gates incredibly slowly and performed atrociously, and then took his play up a notch once thing shifted to the more competitive Big East portion of the schedule, becoming way more consistent against a higher level of competition.

Which is why while the numbers / stats between the two years might be comparable, the context behind them wasn't remotely similar between freshman and sophomore years. The quality of Triche's contributions was much higher last year against superior competition--not even close.

Just my two cents.

i agree with this, mason is a great poster but seems a little passed his prime lately.

 

[albanycuse]

mason have you been drinking heavily lately?

 

[Orangeyes]

Who needs stats to determine whos the better guards on the team? Not me. Stats sometimes hide the facts when a player disappeared in certain games and credits them for garbage time stat stuffers. There should be a stat meter for confidence and potential.

The only stat that matters is a W

 

[bevosu]

The only stat that matters is a W

Not intersted in getting into a debate about who's going to be the better guard. I hope both of them do well. I do think that Triche has some serious potential.

http://www.nunesmagician.com/2011/8...-king-of-kings-league-jds-finest-mvp-syracuse

Here's some stats...a column from Troy Nunes...Magician. 8/22/2011

If Brandon Triche plays for Syracuse this season the way he did in the King of Kings Summer League, he's going to do some fantastic things.​

Triche closed out the regular season with a 52-point performance, leading JD's Finest into the playoffs. Once he got them there, he led them all the way to the championship game where his team lost 100-97 in spite of another fantastic performance.​

Prestige Elite defeated JD's Finest 100-97 in the men's championship. Terry Smith scored 28 points, while Stephan Thompson added 16 points and 11 rebounds. Syracuse Orange starting guard Brandon Triche led JD with 31 points. He also earned the league's MVP honors.​

 

[TinyManInside]

mason have you been drinking heavily lately?

I've certainly been brewing more beer lately, but even with 2 home brews on tap I don't drink that much to be honest.

 

[arbitragegls]

Not intersted in getting into a debate about who's going to be the better guard. I hope both of them do well. I do think that Triche has some serious potential.

http://www.nunesmagician.com/2011/8...-king-of-kings-league-jds-finest-mvp-syracuse

Here's some stats...a column from Troy Nunes...Magician. 8/22/2011

If Brandon Triche plays for Syracuse this season the way he did in the King of Kings Summer League, he's going to do some fantastic things.​

Triche closed out the regular season with a 52-point performance, leading JD's Finest into the playoffs. Once he got them there, he led them all the way to the championship game where his team lost 100-97 in spite of another fantastic performance.​

Prestige Elite defeated JD's Finest 100-97 in the men's championship. Terry Smith scored 28 points, while Stephan Thompson added 16 points and 11 rebounds. Syracuse Orange starting guard Brandon Triche led JD with 31 points. He also earned the league's MVP honors.​

oh my gosh...someone passed the ball to Triche...he didnt have to flail his arms to get the ball...he didnt have to wait for Scoop to pound sand for 20 seconds to get the ball...BIG, BIG DIFFERENCE...I think Triche is very good...I believe that Scoop this year will pass the ball to him and elevate his assists per game to 7 or 8 cause Triche will score

 

[BostonOrange]

I dont think its harsh. we have a 1G / 2G who shoots 33% from the three and has a A/T ratio of 1.4. By any metric, standard or subjective test, thats not good (especially when you consider how good we are). he also isnt quick and by the way, can't create. So i truly dont get it. And by the way, I thought GMAC was a very good college guard, not great. But I readily admit that reasonable people can disagree on the magnitude of GMAC's greatness. Just like I think reasonable people can disagree on scoop. I dont think there is a reasonable argument to be made in support of triche (and I can only think of one other player in SU history who can I could say that about). i wish i could make one.

you make an interesting point - that we are so good it simply doesnt matter who is playing that spot. I think that might be true, unless DW has really turned the corner. if he is truly ready to be a superstar then its time to unleash him. a great european soccer coach stated recently that you need to begin every game by stepping on your opponent's throat and digging in your heel. I agree. so lets start the game with our weapons.

ehhh...I think Triche is better than you think he is, but the stats admittedly aren't great. My argument that I'd prefer Scoop didn't come back is based on the following thesis...
1. I think Brandon is really a point guard and would be better in that role
2. Brandon is 2.5 years younger than Scoop (that is a fact) and the chances of a 20 year old improving in a meaningful way is greater than a 23 yr old improving in a meaningful way.
3. Both Brandon and Scoop are limited. How limited is open for debate, but neither one of them is a star. Having them both back blocks the younger guys, who may have star potential from getting minutes. Therefore it locks us into a backcourt that is 'pretty good', but not great.
4. Now a lot of people may say 'well JB is in practice every day and knows best who should play so if the younger guys are better they will play over the older guys'. I think that logic is flawed for 2 reasons - first, it is very difficult to bench older guys for younger guys from a team harmony perspective. The older guys generally cause problems. Second, usually the younger guys AREN'T BETTER than the older guys from day 1 in practice. But...they can be better in March if they get minutes and a chance to improve\gain experience. As people that have watched JB teams over many years, do we really think that JB is the kind of coach to say "Well, Brandon (or Scoop) gives us the best chance to win this game, but I think Dion\MCW\Cooney has more upside so I'm going to play those guys meaningful minutes even if it means we drop a few early season games'". I would say no.

So...the only way our younger, higher potential guys get the experience they need is if Scoop or Brandon isn't on the roster. Doesn't mean they are bad players\people, I personally would take Brandon over Scoop, but that is just my opinion.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

This is incorrect. Using the exact source that you quote, if you compare the 3 players, Scoop's ORTg and %Poss is appreciably higher than Triche's. FR Dion and SO Triche are essentially a wash.

Comparing the Syracuse Guards with Kenpom's Numbers

What are you talking about? Triche's ORTg (107.5) is substantially higher than Scoop's (103.9)

And "%Poss" is just a usage stat. Everyone knows that Scoops usage is way too high: that is the problem. "%Poss" is not an efficiency stat, and it is not always good to have a high usage rate.

As I've said repeatedly, Scoop has poor advanced metrics. Triche's advanced metrics are much better. Triche bashers like Tristan, and anti-empiricists like AlbanyCuse can ignore the stats all they like, but there is no debating the fact that the scouting professionals who make a living using science and linear regression to measure basketball efficiency grade Triche out as substantially better than Jardine.

No poster has even tried to make a competent empirical argument to the contrary yet.