Do people understand how shooters work?

[OttoinGrotto]

I keep seeing people say "If Bell doesn't come out hot Red needs to sit him."

I'm not really sure why people think that works. Shooters can be on fire and you don't know until they, you know, shoot. But you also don't just want them cranking it up every time it touches their hands if it's not a good shot.

One thing that's interesting, it's a good thing Bell's offensive game has evolved since he's off to such a rough start from deep. Last season his per 40s put him at 1.8 free throw attempts, now his per 40s have him at 6.2 free throw attempts.

Once Bell heats up, if he proves that he's better at getting to the line, his offensive game improves a whole lot.

 

[721Comstock]

I keep seeing people say "If Bell doesn't come out hot Red needs to sit him."

I'm not really sure why people think that works. Shooters can be on fire and you don't know until they, you know, shoot. But you also don't just want them cranking it up every time it touches their hands if it's not a good shot.

One thing that's interesting, it's a good thing Bell's offensive game has evolved since he's off to such a rough start from deep. Last season his per 40s put him at 1.8 free throw attempts, now his per 40s have him at 6.2 free throw attempts.

Once Bell heats up, if he proves that he's better at getting to the line, his offensive game improves a whole lot.

Related:

If Crabbe gets hot, Cal can get right back into this thing!!!

Narrator - Crabbe did not get hot.



Bell’s FT rate, and also his scoring & 3pt averages, were all dramatically improved by his one good (outlier) game this year, vs Tx Tech:

He was 3/8 from 3 - his best outside shooting for the season -
along with 11/11 from the FT line,
for a season best 22 points.

He’s had 2 solid games this season-
(LeMoyne game also)
out of 6 played.

Are we supposed to ignore the 4/6 clunkers??

 

[MikeSU02]

I keep seeing people say "If Bell doesn't come out hot Red needs to sit him."

I'm not really sure why people think that works. Shooters can be on fire and you don't know until they, you know, shoot. But you also don't just want them cranking it up every time it touches their hands if it's not a good shot.

One thing that's interesting, it's a good thing Bell's offensive game has evolved since he's off to such a rough start from deep. Last season his per 40s put him at 1.8 free throw attempts, now his per 40s have him at 6.2 free throw attempts.

Once Bell heats up, if he proves that he's better at getting to the line, his offensive game improves a whole lot.

He’s not efficient and doesn’t do anything else well. He deserves a short hook.

He’s not good enough to wait until January for him to finally get his head on straight.

Hit shots, great. Stay in. But his metrics are awful.

How many times can we go through this exercise.

Bell is a junior.
38.7% FG
28.1% 3Pt

His eFG% is only higher than Carlos and Lucas. His TS%, which counts FT shooting, is still fifth on the team.

Want to go through his other stats? He is getting to the line more. Other than that, he’s been awful. He’s not a winning player. How many years do we need to ignore blinking red lights as we continue to miss the tournament?

His PER is bad. His rebounding % is literally only better than Carlos. His assist % is the worst of any starter. His BPM is below zero. His D is atrocious, but, to be fair, so is everyone else’s.

Chris Bell is in no way, shape or form a guy we have to wait on to get hot. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze. And this is tabling all the drama with this kid that’s probably only tolerated bc of how bad our roster is and his connection to Roc Nation.

 

[Niastri]

I keep seeing people say "If Bell doesn't come out hot Red needs to sit him."

I'm not really sure why people think that works. Shooters can be on fire and you don't know until they, you know, shoot. But you also don't just want them cranking it up every time it touches their hands if it's not a good shot.

One thing that's interesting, it's a good thing Bell's offensive game has evolved since he's off to such a rough start from deep. Last season his per 40s put him at 1.8 free throw attempts, now his per 40s have him at 6.2 free throw attempts.

Once Bell heats up, if he proves that he's better at getting to the line, his offensive game improves a whole lot.

It's a shame Bell started cold as a three point shooter, because he would be looked at as an absolutely amazing scorer if his threes had been dropping.

Last season, Bell shot .42 from 3, this year he's shooting a miserable .281. Yet, his scoring average is up 1.5 points, his two point attempts and percentage are both up, and he's shooting 4.7 free throws per game, and making them at a high rate. If he just shot threes at last year's rate, he'd be averaging another 2.2 points per game, but he's already scoring a career high at 13.5.

Bell also has improved his rebounding, assist and block % while only slightly increasing his overall usage. All this admitting that he's not a good defender, rebounder or passer, but he's improved across the board in these areas.

Bell has improved his overall game noticably, he just hasn't gotten hot shooting yet.

Now, consider that Bell has always been a streaky shooter. Looking at his season last year, where he averaged 42% on three, he had some real stinkers. Bell had ten games where he made 4 or more three pointers, averaging 58% shooting in those games. Bell also had thirteen games where he made 1 or fewer threes. He shot a dismal 14% in those bad shooting games.

He had a stretch in ACC play where he went 4-19 in a four game period (we were 1-3 in those games), culminating in an 0 for 5 day at Wake Forest.

The next game, he hit 8/10 against Louisville, starting a 6 game streak where he hit 59% of his threes and led us to a 4-2 record, averaging 4.8 made threes a game.

Bell is going to be fine... It's probably good that he's not wasting a great shooting streak on scrub teams, lol.

 

[djcon57]

Bell is going to be fine... It's probably good that he's not wasting a great shooting streak on scrub teams, lol.

Uhhh we could have won a game in Brooklyn if he hit more shots. Don’t consider those scrub teams. Those were needed non con wins

 

[Sherman20]

It's a shame Bell started cold as a three point shooter, because he would be looked at as an absolutely amazing scorer if his threes had been dropping.

Last season, Bell shot .42 from 3, this year he's shooting a miserable .281. Yet, his scoring average is up 1.5 points, his two point attempts and percentage are both up, and he's shooting 4.7 free throws per game, and making them at a high rate. If he just shot threes at last year's rate, he'd be averaging another 2.2 points per game, but he's already scoring a career high at 13.5.

Bell also has improved his rebounding, assist and block % while only slightly increasing his overall usage. All this admitting that he's not a good defender, rebounder or passer, but he's improved across the board in these areas.

Bell has improved his overall game noticably, he just hasn't gotten hot shooting yet.

Now, consider that Bell has always been a streaky shooter. Looking at his season last year, where he averaged 42% on three, he had some real stinkers. Bell had ten games where he made 4 or more three pointers, averaging 58% shooting in those games. Bell also had thirteen games where he made 1 or fewer threes. He shot a dismal 14% in those bad shooting games.

He had a stretch in ACC play where he went 4-19 in a four game period (we were 1-3 in those games), culminating in an 0 for 5 day at Wake Forest.

The next game, he hit 8/10 against Louisville, starting a 6 game streak where he hit 59% of his threes and led us to a 4-2 record, averaging 4.8 made threes a game.

Bell is going to be fine... It's probably good that he's not wasting a great shooting streak on scrub teams, lol.

Agreed. But I wish he had shot well against Texas, because we definitely would have won that game, which would’ve been a Q1 win.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

He's not a winning player. How many years do we need to ignore blinking red lights as we continue to miss the tournament?

This is another board trope, that he's not a winning player.

His splits in our wins and losses suggest that when he plays well, we tend to win, And when he doesn't, we tend to lose. So we can call him a losing player I guess, but can't acknowledge the big role he plays when we do win?

Mike, you're better than throwing out his shooting percentages at this point in the season, they're not going to end there. They contribute to how poorly we've played, but the whole team is shooting like crap.

How much really belongs on his shoulders? Bell's responsible for us not making the tourney his freshmen season, when he played more than expected, and probably even better than expected? Come on. I guess if he played better last season it helps, but if he averages like 5 rebounds a game and plays better defense does that get that team in the tourney, with everything we now know was going on? Who knows, but I don't think that solves everything and was one of the big reasons why we didn't make the tournament.

But to my earlier point, you want to get the best out of a shooter? Don't jack with his rhythm or put it in his head that if he misses a few you're planting him on the bench.

 

[MikeSU02]

This is another board trope, that he's not a winning player.

His splits in our wins and losses suggest that when he plays well, we tend to win, And when he doesn't, we tend to lose. So we can call him a losing player I guess, but can't acknowledge the big role he plays when we do win?

Mike, you're better than throwing out his shooting percentages at this point in the season, they're not going to end there. They contribute to how poorly we've played, but the whole team is shooting like crap.

How much really belongs on his shoulders? Bell's responsible for us not making the tourney his freshmen season, when he played more than expected, and probably even better than expected? Come on. I guess if he played better last season it helps, but if he averages like 5 rebounds a game and plays better defense does that get that team in the tourney, with everything we now know was going on? Who knows, but I don't think that solves everything and was one of the big reasons why we didn't make the tournament.

But to my earlier point, you want to get the best out of a shooter? Don't jack with his rhythm or put it in his head that if he misses a few you're planting him on the bench.

We aren’t going to agree. I had hoped and projected that he would make a legit leap, but he has not.

With that said, we can continue to bond over pop culture references from the 90s and just virtually shake hands on the Chris Bell discussion.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

We aren’t going to agree. I had hoped and projected that he would make a legit leap, but he has not.

With that said, we can continue to bond over pop culture references from the 90s and just virtually shake hands on the Chris Bell discussion.

 

[richmondcuse03]

Bell wouldn’t be an issue with a competent point guard who happens to be a defensive liability. I’d like to see how Bell performs for longer periods of time with a better guard lineup.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Bell wouldn’t be an issue with a competent point guard who happens to be a defensive liability. I’d like to see how Bell performs for longer periods of time with a better guard lineup.

I had dreams of Carlos setting him up for wide open wing threes.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Are we supposed to ignore the 4/6 clunkers??

Since we have a guy that's 6/6 clunk factor, kinda yeah?

 

[Niastri]

Uhhh we could have won a game in Brooklyn if he hit more shots. Don’t consider those scrub teams. Those were needed non con wins

Definitely... I was joking. If he had hit a couple more in each game, we'd be the most overrated 6-0 team in major conference basketball.

The thing with a streak shooter is that you'll never know ahead of time which games are going to be the great ones, and which are going to be bad.