Does it matter how we win?

[Millhouse]

You're oversimplifying and conflating yards per attempt with scoring. Like maybe they throw a few less bombs in the cold and more short passes? And that it's mostly just as effective?! And maybe short throws go for more yac because the defender is at a disadvantage due to slow reaction times?

Not conflating. There is a strong correlation

 

[TheCusian]

Not conflating. There is a strong correlation

.4 yards less per catch
Scoring the same
Running not more effective

Yeah proof is right there in between the decimals and the snowflakes

 

[Millhouse]

.4 yards less per catch
Running not more effective

you haven't proven that

 

[SU2NASA]

Forget the arguments over playing indoors, what offense we should run, fan support, etc. etc.

This can be solved very easily.

Clemson

Iowa

Alabama

Ohio State

 

[TheCusian]

you haven't proven that

Link

Last chart on the bottom. Look at O Run - the team with the superior running games won 55% of games in non-cold games while they won 55.4% in cold weather games. Look a .4% difference. Not a big difference. Not that effective. Another myth bites the dust.

EDIT: Teams are much more likely to fumble the ball when it's cold - while the INT rate is about the same.

 

[SU2NASA]

Link

Last chart on the bottom. Look at O Run - the team with the superior running games won 55% of games in non-cold games while they won 55.4% in cold weather games. Look a .4% difference. Not a big difference. Not that effective. Another myth bites the dust.

Did you know that teams that pay players have a .921 winning percentage since 1985?

 

[Crusty]

Link

Last chart on the bottom. Look at O Run - the team with the superior running games won 55% of games in non-cold games while they won 55.4% in cold weather games. Look a .4% difference. Not a big difference. Not that effective. Another myth bites the dust.

EDIT: Teams are much more likely to fumble the ball when it's cold - while the INT rate is about the same.

What about wind, rain and SNOW?!

 

[TheCusian]

What about wind, rain and SNOW?!

100% chance that one of those is in the forecast for the next 3 months

 

[Millhouse]

Link Last chart on the bottom. Look at O Run - the team with the superior running games won 55% of games in non-cold games while they won 55.4% in cold weather games. Look a .4% difference. Not a big difference. Not that effective. Another myth bites the dust. EDIT: Teams are much more likely to fumble the ball when it's cold - while the INT rate is about the same.

That doesn't prove what you think it does.

 

[TheCusian]

That doesn't prove what you think it does.

And? Missed the rest of your post.

 

[RMH44]

And? Missed the rest of your post.

I admire your efforts...but why bother? If proven wrong, he'll simply move the goal posts or create some sort of a ridiculous straw man.

Like all data...garbage in, garbage out.

 

[Millhouse]

And? Missed the rest of your post.

You can run better and not win. Maybe those teams were worse at passing or defending and lost because of that. This why I looked at ypa to evaluate passing and not wins

 

[TheCusian]

You can run better and not win. Maybe those teams were worse at passing or defending and lost because of that. This why I looked at ypa to evaluate passing and not wins

Well sure - that's why you need a large sample size.

 

[Millhouse]

Well sure - that's why you need a large sample size.

i don't know what you're talking about now

dome teams throw better. ypa shows that. you don't like that stat

but you turn around and point out that the team that runs better (not sure whether it's total yards or yards per attempt) wins 5% more than teams that don't and thinks that disproves something. (100%-48.8%)/48.8%.

if you want to judge rushing in cold, you should use something better than do teams who run for more yards win more. that's trivial.

 

[TheCusian]

i don't know what you're talking about now

dome teams throw better. ypa shows that. you don't like that stat

Huh? I've never disputed that stat. You'd be brain dead to think that.

My contention was with your "teams throw worse in the cold/weather and run more" and using YPA to gauge that. They don't throw as long. But scoring is roughly the same.

but you turn around and point out that the team that runs better (not sure whether it's total yards or yards per attempt) wins 5% more than teams that don't and thinks that disproves something. (100%-48.8%)/48.8%.

if you want to judge rushing in cold, you should use something better than do teams who run for more yards win more. that's trivial.

It's not 5% more - it's 0.4%. Meaning good running teams are not more or less effective in the cold.

So let's put it all together:

1. Teams don't throw deep in cold/bad weather (YPA)
2. Teams that run well, do it inside and outside (ie. it's a wash)
3. Scoring is roughly the same

Conclusion: While teams throw better inside (a point I've never questioned) - The effects on the overall score are negligible. So your holy crusade for more throwing because we're a dome team is right - but the vehemence and aggression on the topic completely overstates it's importance.

And that's why I'm 100% tired of you bringing it up. (It should be noted that cold weather doesn't affect this percentage at all.)

 

[Millhouse]

Huh? I've never disputed that stat. You'd be brain dead to think that.

My contention was with your "teams throw worse in the cold/weather and run more" and using YPA to gauge that. They don't throw as long. But scoring is roughly the same.



It's not 5% more - it's 0.4%. Meaning good running teams are not more or less effective in the cold.

So let's put it all together:

1. Teams don't throw deep in cold/bad weather (YPA)
2. Teams that run well, do it inside and outside (ie. it's a wash)
3. Scoring is roughly the same

Conclusion: While teams throw better inside (a point I've never questioned) - The effects on the overall score are negligible. So your holy crusade for more throwing because we're a dome team is right - but the vehemence and aggression on the topic completely overstates it's importance.

And that's why I'm 100% tired of you bringing it up. (It should be noted that cold weather doesn't affect this percentage at all.)

i didn't say anything about how long they throw the ball. yards per attempt can be good completing a lot of short passes where guys can pick up extra yards. i don't think you understand yards per attempt. it's not a measure of how far your attempts go.

i don't know why i'm bothering

you haven't shown that teams run the same in good and bad weather. you just keep saying it.

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/running-in-cold.html

teams that play at home in the cold run the ball better when it's cold. dome teams run worse in the cold.

"Visitor YPC is fairly flat, and as expected, it’s lower than home YPC. What’s so interesting is that home YPC steadily climbs (apparently) as the temperature drops. There is an unmistakable trend."

 

[bcubs9497]

Y'all are wrong, teams play better when they color coordinate, and accessorize tastefully.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Y'all are wrong, teams play better when they color coordinate, and accessorize tastefully.

Well, that is true.

 

[CaliBob'63]

The answer....more cowbell!:bat:

 

[TheCusian]

i didn't say anything about how long they throw the ball. yards per attempt can be good completing a lot of short passes where guys can pick up extra yards. i don't think you understand yards per attempt. it's not a measure of how far your attempts go.

i don't know why i'm bothering

you haven't shown that teams run the same in good and bad weather. you just keep saying it.

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/01/running-in-cold.html

teams that play at home in the cold run the ball better when it's cold. dome teams run worse in the cold.

"Visitor YPC is fairly flat, and as expected, it’s lower than home YPC. What’s so interesting is that home YPC steadily climbs (apparently) as the temperature drops. There is an unmistakable trend."

Sigh. I know that. You keep assuming that I'm ignorant of basic football common sense. YPA attempt accounts for both long passes and short passes with YAC. So let me revise my statement to cover your "gotcha": 1. Teams don't throw deep as much AND YAC is limited in cold/bad weather (YPA)

Home teams that play in cold weather run the ball better. Road teams do not - it's negligible. He concludes that they can't figure out why home cold weather teams are that much more effective - why road teams are not (unless they are dome teams). They also seem to run better at 50 degrees. But I'm sure that's easily explained by aliens or something.

My conclusion stands: It would be smart to have a pass heavy offense as a dome team - but your constant drum beat doesn't match the benefit.

Also: You should probably hit the "we need a great FG kicker" more often. That would have about the same benefit.

 

[Millhouse]

Sigh. I know that. You keep assuming that I'm ignorant of basic football common sense. YPA attempt accounts for both long passes and short passes with YAC. So let me revise my statement to cover your "gotcha": 1. Teams don't throw deep as much AND YAC is limited in cold/bad weather (YPA)

Home teams that play in cold weather run the ball better. Road teams do not - it's negligible. He concludes that they can't figure out why home cold weather teams are that much more effective - why road teams are not (unless they are dome teams). They also seem to run better at 50 degrees. But I'm sure that's easily explained by aliens or something.

My conclusion stands: It would be smart to have a pass heavy offense as a dome team - but your constant drum beat doesn't match the benefit.

Also: You should probably hit the "we need a great FG kicker" more often. That would have about the same benefit.

college kickers suck. i expect NFL kickers to make everything and most college kickers will miss everything

 

[TheCusian]

college kickers suck. i expect NFL kickers to make everything and most college kickers will miss everything

We'll see - I'd bet they mostly suck because they aren't given scholarships at a lot of schools. I like the kid we got out of FL.