Duke opens as a “pickem”

[money3189]

I think we get it. Being outgained by 100 isn't consistently a winning strategy. But it doesn't mean GT was the better team and the ball just happened to bounce our way. We made some game changing plays on D. We couldn't contain the edge rush. We either fix that with scheme, or we find out we're just too young this year and will be abused.

Good to know we have some ball hawks, and that our pass rush can be dialed up when we need it.

I do think our youth will be further exposed as the year goes on. These OC's are too smart. But it doesn't bother me that much, because the future of our D looks pretty good. It should at least be more than good enough to support the type of offense we're expecting to see.

Good post.

 

[Chip]

I’ve never blocked anyone on this board. I’m getting close.

I'll try harder. Just give me a chance!

 

[SoBristol]

. . . .
I do think our youth will be further exposed as the year goes on. These OC's are too smart. But it doesn't bother me that much, because the future of our D looks pretty good. It should at least be more than good enough to support the type of offense we're expecting to see.

On that youth issue, our young guys should get a lot better game to game. We are rotating in a number of second unit players in the DL who had not played much before this season, our entire LB unit had no starting experience entering the season, and the secondary had 3 newbies in prominent roles against GT. Young teams tend to get better.

 

[Chip]

On that youth issue, our young guys should get a lot better game to game. We are rotating in a number of second unit players in the DL who had not played much before this season, our entire LB unit had no starting experience entering the season, and the secondary had 3 newbies in prominent roles against GT. Young teams tend to get better.

True. They will improve. I just think with more film on them, the opposing staffs will have a better idea how to attack this year.

Once these kids have had some more time in the S&C program, more time to learn the D, it's just going to get better.

I'm glad we're giving this 3-3-5 a go. It better suits the depth in players that we have more success recruiting.

 

[SoBristol]

True. They will improve. I just think with more film on them, the opposing staffs will have a better idea how to attack this year.

Once these kids have had some more time in the S&C program, more time to learn the D, it's just going to get better.

I'm glad we're giving this 3-3-5 a go. It better suits the depth in players that we have more success recruiting.

OK — I would view it a little differently. The opposing staffs will pick up on how to attack our 3-3-5 and what our DC is doing, and that would be true even if we had more veteran players.
Our young players will get better, this season. I believe the same will prove out with our offense. We have one RS-Sr in the OL, plus Elmore as a senior in his first year in this role. And that’s it, other than Nykeim Johnson, Devito, and Tisdale. We have a relatively young team, on both sides of the ball.

 

[money3189]

OK — I would view it a little differently. The opposing staffs will pick up on how to attack our 3-3-5 and what our DC is doing, and that would be true even if we had more veteran players.
Our young players will get better, this season. I believe the same will prove out with our offense. We have one RS-Sr in the OL, plus Elmore as a senior in his first year in this role. And that’s it, other than Nykeim Johnson, Devito, and Tisdale. We have a relatively young team, on both sides of the ball.

You make good points I would just add that the younger inexperienced guys are more prone to take the bait. These OC's have tricks they use to get young players to bite. The more they see on film the more plays they run specifically for those inexperienced players. I am not saying our guys wont pass the test, we just don't know how they will react to it throughout the duration of the season. We hope they respond well.

 

[Consigliere]

The line is now down to a pick em at my book (William Hill).

And that's exactly what the books strive for. Move the line to the point that 50% of the money is on Team A and 50% on Team B and the books always win. Initial line is based less on an evaluation of a team than on the perception of that team's strength in the eyes of the initial bettors. The fact that the line dropped to a pick'em means that more of the later money is coming in for Cuse.

 

[SWC75]

Its really not hard for the winning team to be out gained b 100 yards in a game. Especially when said winning team's starting field position is outside their own 40 every time.

5-20 yards per drive over 13-15 possessions a game when your opponent is starting at their own 20-30 yard line.

Did the previous line consider the fact that their QB was a freshman starting against a defensive scheme he had never seen before? Vegas should have known that right, they know everything else...don't they?

Winning Plays: Georgia Tech

This season I will once again be charting Syracuse’s games in terms of “winning plays”. I look at the results of each play and decide which team got the minimum they wanted out of the play. Rather than making instinctive judgments, I use a formula: - On first down, the offensive team wants to...

syracusefan.com

 

[SWC75]

And that's exactly what the books strive for. Move the line to the point that 50% of the money is on Team A and 50% on Team B and the books always win. Initial line is based less on an evaluation of a team than on the perception of that team's strength in the eyes of the initial bettors. The fact that the line dropped to a pick'em means that more of the later money is coming in for Cuse.

Brent Axe has said all week that the Vegas line was all about getting people to get out their wallets, rather than an actual estimate of the two teams.

 

[sutomcat]

Thoughts on the game specifically?

Duke has been very bad stopping the run. We have been very bad running the ball. What happens here?

Duke has not been very successfully running the ball. We have pretty bad defending the run. What happens here is probably the biggest key to the game. Their best RB appears to be Mataeo Durant, a 6'1, 195 LB RB, who has been getting better with each game this season.

Cutcliffe said in an interview this week that Duke will have mismatches on offense and that they need to take advantage of them. Very uncharacteristic of him.

Who was he talking about? Gray, his 6'3, 240 lb TE? He and Jarret Garner, a 6'3 210 WR, have been their top 2 receiving threats so far.

Cutcliffe is no fool. He surely saw weakness defending the run with Cisco out. I think he is going to test our ability to stop the run with heavy use of Durant. I think he is going to throw to their TEs a lot.

Hope Tyrell is able to play and help neutralize this. Our young, not really strong safeties are going to have to step up and play like men. As will the rest of our LBs.

I think it will be a relatively high scoring, entertaining game. Hopefully we can find a way to win. They have an excellent placekicker and punter but their KO return team has been very bad. Meanwhile, our PR unit is very good. Their return units are nothing special to date.

We might have a big advantage with our return teams. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[Consigliere]

Brent Axe has said all week that the Vegas line was all about getting people to get out their wallets, rather than an actual estimate of the two teams.

Unfortunately he went on to assert that setting the line favoring Duke was a way to push more action on the Blue Devils when the intention is exactly the opposite. Guess that's why Axe is in Syracuse and not Vegas.

 

[SWC75]

Thoughts on the game specifically?

Duke has been very bad stopping the run. We have been very bad running the ball. What happens here?

Duke has not been very successfully running the ball. We have pretty bad defending the run. What happens here is probably the biggest key to the game. Their best RB appears to be Mataeo Durant, a 6'1, 195 LB RB, who has been getting better with each game this season.

Cutcliffe said in an interview this week that Duke will have mismatches on offense and that they need to take advantage of them. Very uncharacteristic of him.

Who was he talking about? Gray, his 6'3, 240 lb TE? He and Jarret Garner, a 6'3 210 WR, have been their top 2 receiving threats so far.

Cutcliffe is no fool. He surely saw weakness defending the run with Cisco out. I think he is going to test our ability to stop the run with heavy use of Durant. I think he is going to throw to their TEs a lot.

Hope Tyrell is able to play and help neutralize this. Our young, not really strong safeties are going to have to step up and play like men. As will the rest of our LBs.

I think it will be a relatively high scoring, entertaining game. Hopefully we can find a way to win. They have an excellent placekicker and punter but their KO return team has been very bad. Meanwhile, our PR unit is very good. Their return units are nothing special to date.

We might have a big advantage with our return teams. Something to keep an eye on.

I thought the problem with our run defense was in the first two levels, not the absence of Cisco.

 

[money3189]

Thoughts on the game specifically?

Duke has been very bad stopping the run. We have been very bad running the ball. What happens here?

Duke has not been very successfully running the ball. We have pretty bad defending the run. What happens here is probably the biggest key to the game. Their best RB appears to be Mataeo Durant, a 6'1, 195 LB RB, who has been getting better with each game this season.

Cutcliffe said in an interview this week that Duke will have mismatches on offense and that they need to take advantage of them. Very uncharacteristic of him.

Who was he talking about? Gray, his 6'3, 240 lb TE? He and Jarret Garner, a 6'3 210 WR, have been their top 2 receiving threats so far.

Cutcliffe is no fool. He surely saw weakness defending the run with Cisco out. I think he is going to test our ability to stop the run with heavy use of Durant. I think he is going to throw to their TEs a lot.

Hope Tyrell is able to play and help neutralize this. Our young, not really strong safeties are going to have to step up and play like men. As will the rest of our LBs.

I think it will be a relatively high scoring, entertaining game. Hopefully we can find a way to win. They have an excellent placekicker and punter but their KO return team has been very bad. Meanwhile, our PR unit is very good. Their return units are nothing special to date.

We might have a big advantage with our return teams. Something to keep an eye on.

Good breakdown

 

[JLine]

Thoughts on the game specifically?

Duke has been very bad stopping the run. We have been very bad running the ball. What happens here?

Duke has not been very successfully running the ball. We have pretty bad defending the run. What happens here is probably the biggest key to the game. Their best RB appears to be Mataeo Durant, a 6'1, 195 LB RB, who has been getting better with each game this season.

Cutcliffe said in an interview this week that Duke will have mismatches on offense and that they need to take advantage of them. Very uncharacteristic of him.

Who was he talking about? Gray, his 6'3, 240 lb TE? He and Jarret Garner, a 6'3 210 WR, have been their top 2 receiving threats so far.

Cutcliffe is no fool. He surely saw weakness defending the run with Cisco out. I think he is going to test our ability to stop the run with heavy use of Durant. I think he is going to throw to their TEs a lot.

Hope Tyrell is able to play and help neutralize this. Our young, not really strong safeties are going to have to step up and play like men. As will the rest of our LBs.

I think it will be a relatively high scoring, entertaining game. Hopefully we can find a way to win. They have an excellent placekicker and punter but their KO return team has been very bad. Meanwhile, our PR unit is very good. Their return units are nothing special to date.

We might have a big advantage with our return teams. Something to keep an eye on.

Good stuff. This is the type of game that special teams could easily be the deciding factor on the outcome. The staff has to be very well prepared, as Cutcliffe certainly will be. We need to be sharp, and minimize the mental lapses. Play calling will be key as well, especially in the red zone. Can't repeat the same mistakes we seem to be good for on a couple drives per game.

 

[money3189]

I thought the problem with our run defense was in the first two levels, not the absence of Cisco.

I agree, the issues were more in the box but I saw a lot of catch tackles that gave the runners an extra 4 or 5 yards after contact. Cisco is not a lights out tackler but he brings a little more physical presence than the freshmans.

 

[SoBristol]

We were “very bad” running the ball (quoting SUTomcat) but certainly better once Tucker got more chances. His emergence gives us some hope for a balanced attack — makes all the difference.

 

[sutomcat]

We were “very bad” running the ball (quoting SUTomcat) but certainly better once Tucker got more chances. His emergence gives us some hope for a balanced attack — makes all the difference.

Agreed. He has good vision and consistently makes good reads. This is big if you are to be successful as a college RB.

 

[sutomcat]

I thought the problem with our run defense was in the first two levels, not the absence of Cisco.

I think it was a team effort. But I think Cisco was very good at cleaning up mistakes and minimizing gains on running plays where the RB gets through the LOS and has some daylight. I don't see anyone else on the team nearly as good as him at this.

Pretty sure Coley would have been the backup rover (he and Andre both played it last spring and in the preseason). But with him out too (I assume he is still out, though I haven't read anything on his status), we don't have much choice but to go with a frosh.

I wonder if it is possible they might have moved Trill to rover after the GT game and he has been practicing there the last 2 weeks? He might make a bigger impact on the game playing rover than FS, where it seems teams have mostly been avoiding throwing in his area.

 

[Steelerswan]

Good stuff. This is the type of game that special teams could easily be the deciding factor on the outcome. The staff has to be very well prepared, as Cutcliffe certainly will be. We need to be sharp, and minimize the mental lapses. Play calling will be key as well, especially in the red zone. Can't repeat the same mistakes we seem to be good for on a couple drives per game.

Great points and I am excited about our return teams, esp punt return with NJ. also, spot on with the play calling, cutcliffe is a wizard with in game calls and hopefully we use the whole field and spread out the targets.

 

[Cuse69]

Theirs a reason it's a pickem, winnable for either team, nothing would really shock me in this one both teams a bit inconsistent but we are probably dukes easiest game so far and they need a win bad, I'd expect the kitchen sink is thrown at us and lets see how the young guys react. If we loose this one the season probably changes from a bowl game to getting the young guys better and prepared for a huge 2021 season, just from the standpoint if we can't beat duke we won't win alot of ACC games

 

[kcsu]

I watched Duke and did my unit by unit comparisons. I think that SU would win 7 out of 10 games. I realize i bleed orange but i think we have this one by 10 or more.

 

[Chip]

did my unit by unit comparisons.

Once COVID ends, Millhouse can go back to doing this on Friday nights as well.

 

[FrancoPizza]

I’ve never blocked anyone on this board. I’m getting close.

You’re overthinking it. Just line up and get some pads on the guy in front of you.