ESPN Matchup Predictor...It aint pretty

[TheCusian]

We played soft down the stretch regardless of the depth. The toughness is something these guys need to learn. Addazio's team punched us in the mouth and it was embarassing. I always think about that Rutgers game in Marrone's first year. We were very beat up and we punched those guys in the mouth. It was tough football.

Need to see that this year. Schemes be damned need to establish some toughness to finish strong.

It’s not toughness, though I’d like to see more. They lost their QB for the third straight year. ED is the heart of the team.

 

[SWC75]

Dungey played horribly in those games.

Like i said: depth.

 

[zjscuse]

Ya know that clemson game was one that really showed me this dino train can work... that was the game where everyone was healthy and the system was clicking... lets not forget how improved the D was and exactly how many games where lost by a single score last year... we couldve beaten miami, fsu , mtsu and lsu and i mean we really couldve beaten them i cant believe i can say that ... im seriously excited to see the ol under this new coach because I believe that was are biggest heel last year... this is the first year are schedule isnt a gauntlet and its dungeys last year i think hes going to be remembered for years to come as the general that truly got this train running.. dino learned alot about having his men prepared after the mtsu debacle i have no doubt in my mind he’ll have these boys ready this year to turn some heads.

 

[elimunelson]

It’s not toughness, though I’d like to see more. They lost their QB for the third straight year. ED is the heart of the team.

We need toughness because a healthy ED vs BC we still lose b/c we lost the trenches in that game more than anything. Gotta stop fooling ourselves w straw man arguments if x was healthy we'd win. We weren't good down the stretch. The BC/WF games should be nightmare fuel for our program because that was two peer schools kicking our *ss. Those teams do not have depth like Clemson. They were better coached in those games. Doesn't mean we won't be better coached this year and the next 10. Just need to turn up the heat.

 

[TheCusian]

We need toughness because a healthy ED vs BC we still lose b/c we lost the trenches in that game more than anything. Gotta stop fooling ourselves w straw man arguments if x was healthy we'd win. We weren't good down the stretch. The BC/WF games should be nightmare fuel for our program because that was two peer schools kicking our *ss. Those teams do not have depth like Clemson. They were better coached in those games. Doesn't mean we won't be better coached this year and the next 10. Just need to turn up the heat.

This argument is silly. Its right there in the numbers.

With a healthy ED and to a lesser extent Martin on D - we beat teams we shouldn't have and came close in every game. Without we lost to lesser teams by more. It has nothing to do with coaching and everything to do with your best player at the most important position going down and having a huge drop-off to the next guy. It happened the year before too.

This system needs a high quality QB to go. If you take it away, it falls apart.

BC needs a RB to stuff it down your throat with a good OL. They have a great one.
Wake had their SR QB to make their passing game hum. It did.
We lost our best player on O - a guy who is on pace to destroy our record books and is also was our best RB.

 

[TheCusian]

To back up my point with actual numbers:

With Dungey, we lost by
7 to MTSU (6% win expectancy)
9 to LSU (14% win expectancy)
8 to NC State (9% win expectancy)
8 to Miami (1% win expectancy)
3 to FSU (19% win expectancy)

Without Dungey
21 to Wake (0% win expectancy)
46 to Louisville (0% win expectancy)
28 to BC (5% win expectancy)

 

[Trueblue25]

Dungey’s effort vs Miami was more telling to me than the win vs Clemson.


Also, that LSU game should’ve been a dub. That dropped td murdered us.


Dungey just needs a little more protection and for the line to open up the run so dino can open up the playbook.

 

[zjscuse]

Dungey’s effort vs Miami was more telling to me than the win vs Clemson.


Also, that LSU game should’ve been a dub. That dropped td murdered us.


Dungey just needs a little more protection and for the line to open up the run so dino can open up the playbook.

I can agree with this, the lsu game i think was more a mental flub then talent.. i think when they relized they had an actual chance of winning the younger players on the team got a lil nervous and overthought there tasks.. what does make me happy, was seeing everyone giving riley crap but he was consistently burning the lsu secondary hes going to get better and catch those balls.. are season last year was a failure purely because of depth if anyone thinks differently they needa go back and watch all of those games... it is complete fact that the drop off from are best player to his backup was of monstrous proportion. Dinos guys hes recruited will better close this void.

 

[cuse309]

Dungey played horribly in those games.

Huh??? He didn't have a single incompletion, or pick in any of those games.

 

[CousCuse]

The Clemson QB was only about 70% in the game last year, if we want to be honest with ourselves.

 

[P Vasiloff]

The Clemson QB was only about 70% in the game last year, if we want to be honest with ourselves.

Yep and they had three other quarterbacks that were four star recruits. Syracuse beat em,period!

 

[TheCusian]

The Clemson QB was only about 70% in the game last year, if we want to be honest with ourselves.

bwahaha

 

[elimunelson]

To back up my point with actual numbers:

With Dungey, we lost by
7 to MTSU (6% win expectancy)
9 to LSU (14% win expectancy)
8 to NC State (9% win expectancy)
8 to Miami (1% win expectancy)
3 to FSU (19% win expectancy)

Without Dungey
21 to Wake (0% win expectancy)
46 to Louisville (0% win expectancy)
28 to BC (5% win expectancy)

Dungey is a fantastic qb when he's playing. Guy has tons of moxy and has willed us to play competitive games versus superior opponents. Need to keep him upright this season for us to make a bowl game. Hoping the offensive line/running game takes some pressure off him.

 

[Ozcuse]

To back up my point with actual numbers:

With Dungey, we lost by
7 to MTSU (6% win expectancy)
9 to LSU (14% win expectancy)
8 to NC State (9% win expectancy)
8 to Miami (1% win expectancy)
3 to FSU (19% win expectancy)

Without Dungey
21 to Wake (0% win expectancy)
46 to Louisville (0% win expectancy)
28 to BC (5% win expectancy)

We had a 6% win expectancy at home vs Middle Tennessee State?!?!?!?

 

[nzm136]

On the ESPN team page for Syracuse Football, if you click on each game of the upcoming season, it gives you a "Matchup Predictor" Based on the predictor, we win 4 games. The most shocking part however, is how low of a chance they give us vs. teams like BC and Wake. Yes, Wake, and BC should be favored after both teams demolished us at home, why wouldn't they be? But to basically give us no shot is a slap in the collective facemasks of SU.
Somebody email this to Dino, and tell him to post it in the locker room.

Opponent: Syracuse %Chance to win
WMU 54.5
Wagner 99.2
FSU 28.0
UCONN 93.8
Clemson 3.7
Pitt 41.2
UNC 53.7
NC State 45.2
Wake 27.4
L'Ville 40.5
ND 8.2
BC 24.9

My takeaway:
#1- I'll consider a toss up game, one that gives us anywhere from a 40-60% chance of winning. We have 5 of those.
5 games that could go either way, but we need need need to take at least 3, especially considering one will need to come against WMU, a team most think is just a gimme. Not so fast.

#2- BC, and Wake are in the "unwinnable" range now? Whah????

#3- How freakin' bad must UCONN be?

www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/183/syracuse-orange

Our expected wins is 5.2.

...that’s probably about right.

 

[TheCusian]

We had a 6% win expectancy at home vs Middle Tennessee State?!?!?!?

That’s based on the stats post game. Yeah, not good. I’m not sure about the exact mix that produces that number - but sacks and INT really hurt you. We were horrible on O in the first half.

 

[gbo]

bwahaha

He's not wrong. We still got dominated however.

 

[cuse309]

Our expected wins is 5.2.

...that’s probably about right.

So we just need to find 8/10ths of a win to go bowling.

 

[TheCusian]

He's not wrong. We still got dominated however.

I was laughing more cause he’s insane to pooh on that win, no matter the circumstances.

Honestly - I’m not sure if your QB started the game at 100% he would have finished the game after what Slayton did to him. *Maybe* he escapes the pressure.

But CousCous prob thinks we beat you guys if Dungey wasn’t at 0% the year before

 

[TheCusian]

So we just need to find 8/10ths of a win to go bowling.

Babers is good for +1 a year

Dino Babers remains one of college football’s biggest overachievers

 

[CousCuse]

I was laughing more cause he’s insane to pooh on that win, no matter the circumstances.

Honestly - I’m not sure if your QB started the game at 100% he would have finished the game after what Slayton did to him. *Maybe* he escapes the pressure.

But CousCous prob thinks we beat you guys if Dungey wasn’t at 0% the year before

I think the team gave a huge effort. I think Dabo thought that they could beat SU, who didn't look very solid up to that point, with a dinged up Bryant and avoid a potential distracting QB debate by Tiger fans. I think Dungey is the fiercest competitor that I have ever seen play QB for the Orange. Those are some things I think.

 

[TheCusian]

I think the team gave a huge effort. I think Dabo thought that they could beat SU, who didn't look very solid up to that point, with a dinged up Bryant and avoid a potential distracting QB debate by Tiger fans. I think Dungey is the fiercest competitor that I have ever seen play QB for the Orange. Those are some things I think.

I hear you. I just think we can say theses things about all of our wins. It’s fine to break it down and say “these are the reasons - how repeatable is it?” But sometimes even with all the honesty in the world - it’s an amazing win.

I’ll take another please

 

[elimunelson]

I hear you. I just think we can say theses things about all of our wins. It’s fine to break it down and say “these are the reasons - how repeatable is it?” But sometimes even with all the honesty in the world - it’s an amazing win.

I’ll take another please

Yeah Clemson could have started a RB at QB and it's still a monumental victory. Clemson has NFL players at every spot. They are essentially the early 90s Miami. We were lucky to play them w an injured Bryant but that's football. Teams were lucky to play us sans Dungey too. We need to keep him upright so that excuse is removed.

 

[TexanMark]

To back up my point with actual numbers:

With Dungey, we lost by
7 to MTSU (6% win expectancy)
9 to LSU (14% win expectancy)
8 to NC State (9% win expectancy)
8 to Miami (1% win expectancy)
3 to FSU (19% win expectancy)

Without Dungey
21 to Wake (0% win expectancy)
46 to Louisville (0% win expectancy)
28 to BC (5% win expectancy)

Wouldn't MTSU be a 94% win expectancy? Cuse was favored.

 

[elimunelson]

Wouldn't MTSU be a 94% win expectancy? Cuse was favored.

i think it's a win expectancy based on the game results. The way Syracuse played they had 6% chance of winning because of the turnovers, etc.