Everyones favorite statman doesn't think much of SU

[RandomGuy]

"Greg Robinson, one of the most disastrous hires of the 21st century."

It's a good read.

 

[UpstateSM]

His write up is s great but his projection IMO is s joke. Anything worse than 8-4 is a disappointment and he has us at 6.7 wins.

As nervous as it makes me going into this season because I have such high expectations I actually think the projection is pretty fair. His projections have 9 of our 12 games being decided by single digits, how many of those games can you confidently say we win by a comfortable margin? As of right now I can only say WMU and maybe Louisville. I have no problem saying that the remaining 7 games are closer to the toss-up end of the spectrum than sure fire wins. Winning half of those games plus the 4 easy wins would put us at 7.5.

I don't necessarily think that this happens, I think we're the second best team in the ACC, but the conference will be better than it was last season and Maryland is far from a pushover. Overall, I love Bill C's previews especially being a UMass grad its the only national person who writes such a comprehensive preview.

 

[RandomGuy]

Not included in win total(per S+P):

Maryland 50% chance
Duke 48% chance

Win those 2, we're 9-3 again.

 

[TheCusian]

His write up is s great but his projection IMO is s joke. Anything worse than 8-4 is a disappointment and he has us at 6.7 wins.

I agree that if I were guessing I'd have it at 8 wins+ ... but he's not guessing. He may be wrong, but he's dealing with more info and data than you and I are - with significantly less bias.

 

[RF2044]

The schedule sets up nicely but there is some valid cause for concern. New QB, new tackles and a 3 deep defensive line unit that will have to stay healthy; otherwise #4 is Shaq Gros and #5 is Harper.

We go 4 deep at DE with proven commodities, and some quality prospects behind that core.

We go 3 deep at DT with proven commodities, with Harper as #4.

An injury on the interior would be a problem. If we can avoid that, then depth at DL is fine.

 

[PhatOrange]

We go 4 deep at DE with proven commodities, and some quality prospects behind that core.

We go 3 deep at DT with proven commodities, with Harper as #4.

An injury on the interior would be a problem. If we can avoid that, then depth at DL is fine.

Of course the DL depth is fine if we can avoid injury. that's kind of stating the obvious. DE is not an issue, hence why i didn't bring it up. I think people are woefully underestimating the wear and tear on interior DLineman and the depth necessary to compete for an entire season in a power conference. Most big schools rotate a lot of interior dlineman. We've been pretty lucky on that front but it's not always the case.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I agree that if I were guessing I'd have it at 8 wins+ ... but he's not guessing. He may be wrong, but he's dealing with more info and data than you and I are - with significantly less bias.

You are assuming the formula doesn’t have bias. If you look at our home record under Barbers then predicting 3.55 and 2.45 is asinine given the weak home schedule.

 

[RF2044]

Of course the DL depth is fine if we can avoid injury. that's kind of stating the obvious. DE is not an issue, hence why i didn't bring it up. I think people are woefully underestimating the wear and tear on interior DLineman and the depth necessary to compete for an entire season in a power conference. Most big schools rotate a lot of interior dlineman. We've been pretty lucky on that front but it's not always the case.

If it is so obvious, then why were you wringing your hands about DL depth in the post I responded to?

Depth is fine at BOTH positions, and not cause for alarm. If we suffer an injury at DT [not "DL" as you framed it], that might change. You're acting as though the injury has already occurred, and depth there is a problem. Today, it isn't.

I don't underestimate anything with respect to injuries -- that's why having a rotation is important, not only to keep guys fresh during games, but also to prevent the higher risk of injuries stemming from guys having to play fatigued. Having an 8 player rotation at DL--with four guys rotating at BOTH DT and DE--is a more than adequate rotation, especially when you factor in some players might be able to play both outside AND inside on clear passing downs.



EDIT:

And reinforcements are on the way. We loaded up on defensive linemen in the class of 2019. Hopefully, the majority of these guys will be able to redshirt, but we have a couple of guys who appear capable of seeing the field earlier if DT depth becomes an issue [or if they are too good to keep out of the rotation].

FWIW, Dawson / Munoz had impressive offers, and Rondi has been described as a Christian Ferrara clone.

Cooper Dawson DT 6-5 250
Joe Rondi DT 6-4 250
Jason Munoz DT 6-4 270
Andrew Tuazma DE 6-6 235
Steven Linton DE 6-5 215
Ishmael Goulbourne DE 6-3 200

And an intriguing walk on prospect...

Kevon Darton DT 6-0 280

 

[KaiserUEO]

I don’t think he valued our skill position transfers and based on his criteria he had to undervalue DeVito.

I still expect 10 wins or more and as many said here, he kinda said it’s possible.

 

[GoSU96]

I don’t think he valued our skill position transfers and based on his criteria he had to undervalue DeVito.

I still expect 10 wins or more and as many said here, he kinda said it’s possible.

Immediate reaction, agree he didn’t mention Adams and Jackson. Dino has worked the waiver and love the comment about the two Andres

 

[TheCusian]

You are assuming the formula doesn’t have bias. If you look at our home record under Barbers then predicting 3.55 and 2.45 is asinine given the weak home schedule.

No - formulas don’t have bias. They have weak spots like small sample size, coaching and player dev misses, transfers, etc. (that’s why he’s constantly tweaking it).

I read these data based projections as a way of calibrating my opinion. It’s not that I think that’s what will happen, it’s a way of factoring in info I don’t have handy about our team or about the other teams on our schedule, compiled in an unbiased way. This isn’t gospel - but a good way to step outside of our bubble a little.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I know we lost Dungey, but a fourth year Dino Babers offense with the weapons we have as 59th is a joke. Yeah we also lost Custis and Strickland, but they are being replaced by Jackson and Adams who didn't have any regular season stats to lean on, but anyone except a computer can see how talented both are. and then pretty much everyone else is back.

I don't think they're counting our transfers, Adams and the kid from Michigan State at WR. Jawahr Jordan has incredible speed, shiftiness and an ability to run between the tackles. He looks like a 4 star back to me!

We have pieces on the O line but they do have to gel. But we do seem to have a legit O line coach now. I think our running game is going to be really good this year, so long as the line stays healthy. I think the talent and some reasonable depth is there to create a pretty good line.

 

[IthacaMatt]

We beat them for I think the first time ever last year, and some are acting like they’re a joke. I’m not buying it. At FSU will be a tough game, regardless of how much of a train wreck they were last year.

I think we can win it, absolutely. But some should probably stop acting like they’re a joke. We went from 4-8 to 10-3 in one season. They’re probably a couple years away from a 10-3 type season being likely(provided their coaching staff is legit like ours), but I won’t be surprised at all if they’re a bowl team and one of our toughest games.

I agree, we are far from a certainty to win 10 games again this year.
But I think our floor this year is 8. If we do worse than that, we underachieved.

 

[GoSU96]

Bill Connelly doesn't think highly of the team SU is putting on the field this year. The SU write up should be in the next couple of days, we'll see if his words match his numbers.

View attachment 163889

His write up is much more positive than the statistical projection but he still leans on his stats for his projection.

SU's leap was built as much on the backs of freshmen as it was on the seniors. Those guys plus Adams and Jackson should only get better.

 

[upperdeck]

so go look at his projections the last 2-3 yrs for the teams that ended up in the top 30 or so and see how accurate he is. once you remove the obvious Clemson/Ala out what is he getting right or wrong.

 

[UpstateSM]

I love his team previews they’re easily one of my favorite college football reads each year, hopefully they don’t disappear altogether