Expanded College Football Playoff coming

[DomeStranger]

So how I understand this 12 team playoff is this. And the more I read about it and learn about it the more I really dislike it (and yes I know I am in the minority). The current playoff structure is fine, if they wanted to make it 6 I could live with that. But 12 is just going to ruin the sport and change it for the worse.

1) No limit on how many schools a conference can get into the playoff (pencil in 3 SEC schools each year, some years 4). They will take up close to 1/3 of this tournament every year.

Why should there be a limit, why wouldn't you want the best teams in the playoffs? What other sport currently limits how teams a conference can have in the playoffs? It makes no sense to do this.

2) If you win your conference you still aren't guaranteed a spot in the playoff. So if a 3 loss team wins their conference in a down year for the conference overall they still may not be in the playoff. Seems like that may be a rare situation but it is possible.

If you're a P5 you pretty much are guaranteed a spot if you're conference champion. There would have to be (2) G5 conference champs ranked ahead to not get this bid. This is highly unlikely, and if it happens, then the higher ranked teams are more deserving, so why not let them have the bid? G5 kids are people too, lol.

3) Notre Dame can NEVER get a bye since they aren't in a conference. Look I hate ND as much as the next guy but that's BS. If this is a "true" playoff and they are a Top 4 team in the country they should get a BYE. Otherwise, this setup is a joke.

Notre Dame will already have an advantage as they don't have a conference championship game to lose. Having to play the first round is their equivalent to a conference championship game. And if they are a top 4 ranked team, they will be playing this at home, which is a huge advantage. Notre Dame has already stated they don't have a problem with this for this reason. If Notre Dame is fine with it, why do you have a problem with it? LOL.

 

[longtimefan]

Really hate it. We are just delaying the inevitable of the top 1-3 teams in the CG. I rather see an expanded season. Give me 14 SU games and a one game NCG over 12 SU games and 12 team playoff.

This really would benefit the SEC and B1G not the G5. The last 3 years would have resulted in:

SEC 10 bids
B1G 9
P12 5
ACC 4
B12 4
AAC 3
ND 1

So 19 of the 36 bids (over half) went to the B1G/SEC. The P12 was seen as down during the last 3 years since they had no top team but they beat out the ACC and B12 who were Top team heavy. AAC got the 6th Champ bid every year. Memphis got in as a 12 seed despite being 17th in the poll.


2019

First Round

12. Memphis 12-1 at 5. Georgia 11-2
The Cinderella aspect makes you tune in but it is likely over at halftime.

11. Penn State 10-2 at 6. Oregon 11-2
This is an interesting matchup for the Rose Bowl, but neither team is making the Final Four. BTW what happens to the Rose Bowl? #14 Michigan (4th B1G) vs #22 USC (3rd P12)?

10. Utah 11-2 at 7. Baylor 11-2
I would watch it in the 4th Q to see who wins, but how boring can you get?

9. Florida 10-2 vs 8. Wisconsin 10-3
Would be a good Outback Bowl. Probably then most interesting of the first round.

Second Round

Florida/Wisconsin winner at #1 LSU 13-0
Wouldn't even be close, but who would be at LSU?

Utah/Baylor winner at #2 Ohio State 13-0
This isn't even worth tuning in for.

Penn State/Oregon winner vs #3 Clemson 13-0
Playoff Clemson wins easily.

Memphis/Georgia winner vs #4 Oklahoma 12-1
The only matchup worth watching on paper.

So all we are really doing is taking away 4 good Bowl games and masking them as week 1 of the playoffs. Week 2 there is one good game. There were 5 quality teams in 2019. That is the case most seasons. I get going to 5 or 6 but anything past that is about making money and nothing else.


2018

First Round

12. LSU 9-3 at 5. ND 12-0
LSU might have won this. But do we really need to see a 4th SEC team in a playoff?

11. Penn Sate 9-3 at 6. Georgia 11-2
Name teams but I think Georgia wins easily.

10. Florida 9-3 at 7. Michigan 10-2
This would be a good game

9. Washington 10-3 at 8. UCF 12-0
Without their QB UCF would lose. Even with him this isn't that interesting a game.

Second Round

Washington/UCF winner at 1. Alabama 13-0
Boring AF if Washington is the team. If UCF had their QB you watch for David vs Goliath, but that last 10 mins.

Florida/Michigan winner at 2. Clemson 13-0
Playoff Clemson wins easily

Penn State/Georgia winner vs 3. Oklahoma 12-1
This would be an interesting game if Georgia.

LSU/ND winner vs 4. Ohio State 12-1
Could be a good matchup but hard to win on the road.

There are some interesting first round matchups but they are interesting like Bowl games are. I rather see these matchups as OOC games in an expanded season. Week 2 has the potential for a complete snooze fest.

2017

First Round

12. UCF 12-0 at 5. Alabama 11-1
Cinderella aspect for 10 mins?

11. Washington 10-2 at 6. Wisconsin 12-1
Boring for a Rose Bowl

10. Miami 10-2 at 7. Auburn 10-3
Auburn would beat that overrated Miami team easily, especially at home.

9. Penn State 10-2 at 8. USC 11-2
A good game on paper.

Second Round

Penn State/USC winner at 1. Clemson 12-1
Clemson at home isn't losing to either

Miami/Auburn winner at 2. Oklahoma 12-1
Auburn would make it interesting

Washington/Wisconsin winner at 3. Georgia 12-1
This wouldn't be close

UCF/Alabama winner at 4. Ohio State 11-2
Bama at Ohio State

Nothing great to see in Week 1. Though Week 2 has potential for being worth watching.

Look at how that shakes out re: conferences. I don't want to see 3 B1G teams and 3 (or 4) SEC teams most every year. Just more of "the rich get rich. . .".

 

[RandomGuy]

I love it.

Last year, would it have been Coastal Carolina vs ND in the first round? Either way, I think it would be a pretty big deal for a G5 team, or teams that don't normally have a chance. While the big dog will likely win? 1 upset every few years would be a joy to watch.

 

[bnoro]

Never thought I'd see so many people on a Syracuse message board against getting more teams in the playoff.

We had less than a 1% chance to ever get into the CFB Playoff with 4 teams. Our chances are still low, but now they're actually realistic if we have a truly exceptional season. For Syracuse football, this now makes us competing for something a tangible reality.

How could anyone on this board be against it?

 

[Alsacs]

12 is the problem.
Just go to 8 or 16.

If they want byes then all they needed to do is go to 6.

 

[upperdeck]

now we dont have to win the ACC but we need to be relevant in the ACC.. Before we had to win it and still be one of the best 4 teams.

if we go 11-1 with a loss to Clemson we can squeak in.

 

[MSOrange]

Never thought I'd see so many people on a Syracuse message board against getting more teams in the playoff.

We had less than a 1% chance to ever get into the CFB Playoff with 4 teams. Our chances are still low, but now they're actually realistic if we have a truly exceptional season. For Syracuse football, this now makes us competing for something a tangible reality.

How could anyone on this board be against it?

That's basically how I feel. But even considering that, we need to eventually have a decent season sometime soon before I can get too excited about it.

 

[RandomGuy]

now we dont have to win the ACC but we need to be relevant in the ACC.. Before we had to win it and still be one of the best 4 teams.

if we go 11-1 with a loss to Clemson we can squeak in.

Ya never know.

 

[SUskibum]

Look at how that shakes out re: conferences. I don't want to see 3 B1G teams and 3 (or 4) SEC teams most every year. Just more of "the rich get rich. . .".

So if 6 spots are taken by B1G and SEC every year, that still leaves 6 spots for ACC big12 pac10 and G5

My calculator is broken but I think 6 additional spots in the 12 format is still more than the current 4 total (of which 3 is taken by B1G/SEC) currently

The non power schools/conferences are absolutely helped in a 12 format vs 4

 

[Scooch]

Never thought I'd see so many people on a Syracuse message board against getting more teams in the playoff.

We had less than a 1% chance to ever get into the CFB Playoff with 4 teams. Our chances are still low, but now they're actually realistic if we have a truly exceptional season. For Syracuse football, this now makes us competing for something a tangible reality.

How could anyone on this board be against it?

Yup. 12 is SU's best shot at ever getting into a playoff. A few years ago I would have said 8, but given our recent performance, I'm not sure we'll be top 8 ever again.

But we must preserve the sanctity of the regular season so the same 5 or 6 teams can make the playoffs for long stretches of time, or something something.

 

[Alsacs]

Yup. 12 is SU's best shot at ever getting into a playoff. A few years ago I would have said 8, but given our recent performance, I'm not sure we'll be top 8 ever again.

But we must preserve the sanctity of the regular season so the same 5 or 6 teams can make the playoffs for long stretches of time, or something something.

8 would be top 5 conference champions and 3 at-larges that would just require us winning the conference which could happen.
We aren’t going to play hard enough schedules that we will ever get an at-large.
The 6 at-larges are going to be ND/2 SEC/2 Big Ten and maybe one for the Bevo/ACC/PAC-12

 

[Scooch]

8 would be top 5 conference champions and 3 at-larges that would just require us winning the conference which could happen.
We aren’t going to play hard enough schedules that we will ever get an at-large.
The 6 at-larges are going to be ND/2 SEC/2 Big Ten and maybe one for the Bevo/ACC/PAC-12

I suspect SU has a much greater chance of being #11 or #12 than winning the ACC.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

So if 6 spots are taken by B1G and SEC every year, that still leaves 6 spots for ACC big12 pac10 and G5

My calculator is broken but I think 6 additional spots in the 12 format is still more than the current 4 total (of which 3 is taken by B1G/SEC) currently

The non power schools/conferences are absolutely helped in a 12 format vs 4

Typically we will see 3 B1G teams, 3 SEC teams, the ACC champ, the B12 champ, the P12 champ, and the best G5 champ. That leaves 2 at large slots that will come down to the 2nd best ACC, 2nd best B12, second best P12, and Notre Dame.

The 2nd best ACC team in the CFP era has been:

2020 UNC #13 (if not counting ND last year)
2019 UVA #24
2018 SU #20
2017 Miami #10
2016 FSU #11
2015 FSU #9
2014 GA Tech #12

We probably have a better chance at winning via upset in the ACC CG and getting in at #18 as the 6th best conference champ vs getting in as at at large at #12 or better.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I suspect SU has a much greater chance of being #11 or #12 than winning the ACC.

If they scrap divisions in the ACC then IMO SU has a better chance of going 9-3 and getting a one game upset in the ACC CG than going 10-2 and getting a playoff at large. Just look at 2019 we had Bama and ND at 10-2 and both would have missed the playoffs. For SU to make it as an at large we likely need to go 11-1 or 11-2 (loss in ACC CG). But as long as they keep divisions and we are stuck playing Clemson every year, the chances of either are slim.

 

[Scooch]

If they scrap divisions in the ACC then IMO SU has a better chance of going 9-3 and getting a one game upset in the ACC CG than going 10-2 and getting a playoff at large. Just look at 2019 we had Bama and ND at 10-2 and both would have missed the playoffs. For SU to make it as an at large we likely need to go 11-1 or 11-2 (loss in ACC CG). But as long as they keep divisions and we are stuck playing Clemson every year, the chances of either are slim.

How are we making an ACC champ game at 9-3?

 

[721Comstock]

How are we making an ACC champ game at 9-3?

By getting moved into the Coastal division!

 

[Alsacs]

How are we making an ACC champ game at 9-3?

If the conference goes to 3-5-5 we could go 6-2 in conference and 3-1 in nonconference games and be the second place in the standings and win tiebreakers.

 

[Scooch]

If the conference goes to 3-5-5 we could go 6-2 in conference and 3-1 in nonconference games and be the second place in the standings and win tiebreakers.

I mean, sure, I guess that could happen. We’d need some crazy breaks, winning a 2nd place tie breaker at 6-2 might be a once in a generation occurrence. I’m not sure why that’s the scenario we’d prefer to hang our hats on instead of being #12 in a 12 team playoff?

 

[Scooch]

By getting moved into the Coastal division!

That seems more likely than any other scenario that’ll be floated.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If the conference goes to 3-5-5 we could go 6-2 in conference and 3-1 in nonconference games and be the second place in the standings and win tiebreakers.

For SU to make it as an at large out of the Atlantic we need to go 12-1, 11-1, 11-2, or 10-2 with those 2 losses being to Top 15 teams. For SU to make it as an at large without divisions we need to go 12-1, 11-2, or 10-2 with those 2 losses being to Top 15 teams. I don't think 10-3 in either case gets us in.

Without divisions we can go 6-2 in conference and get lucky in the ACC CG. If we had a strong OOC schedule we might even get into the playoff at 9-4. For sure at 10-3.

So what is more realistic a 10 win regular season? Or 6-2 in conference with the best team in the ACC, who is already a lock for the playoffs, overlooking us and getting upset in the CCG?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I mean, sure, I guess that could happen. We’d need some crazy breaks, winning a 2nd place tie breaker at 6-2 might be a once in a generation occurrence. I’m not sure why that’s the scenario we’d prefer to hang our hats on instead of being #12 in a 12 team playoff?

2018 and 2019 the 2nd best record in the ACC was 6-2. Being #12 (more likely #11 since the G5 will likely be worse) is asking for a 10-2 or better season. That isn't an easy thing. And even 10-2 might not be good enough to get in. There is no way we get in at 10-2 against this year's weak schedule.

 

[Alsacs]

2018 and 2019 the 2nd best record in the ACC was 6-2. Being #12 (more likely #11 since the G5 will likely be worse) is asking for a 10-2 or better season. That isn't an easy thing. And even 10-2 might not be good enough to get in. There is no way we get in at 10-2 against this year's weak schedule.

Exactly he doesn’t get 6-2 would be close to 2nd a lot more than one in a while.

 

[longtimefan]

So if 6 spots are taken by B1G and SEC every year, that still leaves 6 spots for ACC big12 pac10 and G5

My calculator is broken but I think 6 additional spots in the 12 format is still more than the current 4 total (of which 3 is taken by B1G/SEC) currently

The non power schools/conferences are absolutely helped in a 12 format vs 4

To my mind, this is who wins the move to a 12-team playoff:

1.) G5. They actually get to play. With the current system, they don't. Of course, expanding to 8 would take care of them too.

2.) ND. With 6 at large bids, they are way better than 50-50 to make it any year. And, they don't have to join a league.

3.) SEC, and to a slightly lesser extent, B1G. I would guess these two will nail down 4 of the 6 at-large bids most years. I expect the two richest leagues were a driving force to skip 8 and go to 12. I can hear the debate--"If you're going to guarantee those G5 slugs a slot, we aren't settling for, at most, one extra slot per year".

Many years, ACC/Big XII/PAC-12 will scrap over 1 or 2 leftover spots.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

To put in into perspective, SU since joining the Big East in 1991 has only had two Top 15 regular seasons. One we finished 14th and the other 6th. So we have had only ONE team in the last 30 seasons that would have made the playoffs as an at large.

So IMO going 6-2 in the ACC and winning by upset in the ACC CG is more realistic than SU being ranked 12th and getting the last at large.

 

[Alsacs]

To put in into perspective, SU since joining the Big East in 1991 has only had two Top 15 regular seasons. One we finished 14th and the other 6th. So we have had only ONE team in the last 30 seasons that would have made the playoffs as an at large.

So IMO going 6-2 in the ACC and winning by upset in the ACC CG is more realistic than SU being ranked 12th and getting the last at large.

100%.

If we win the ACC at 9-3 it’s way more likely than we finish top 12.
Unless we have a bunch of top 25 seasons in a row we won’t get respect the years we do have a 2018 season.