From my SU Basketball Preview:
But what fans really want to know is what changes we will see on the court. They tended to assume that Red would be a clone of Boeheim and all the problems we’ve had in recent years would continue. The 2-3 zone has been outmoded by a generation of players who want to be like Steph (Curry), more than be like Mike (Jordan). There’s just too much reliable outside shooting in basketball these days to hang back in a zone and cut off the driving and passing lanes to the basket, (unless they’re playing us: more on that later). Fans want to see at least some flexibility: we’ve got to either play an aggressive zone that can extend itself to cover shooters, a man for man that can follow them wherever they go or a press that that will at least hurry them up and could take the ball away before they ever get into their half-court sets. Red has said that that’s exactly what he intends to do. He wants to get us running like we did in the old days. This is my que to post my favorite You-Tube video, which every Syracuse fan is obligated to watch at least once a year:
The thing is, Jim Boeheim made some statements in recent years that they were going to try the man-for-man. We wouldn’t play it well and we returned to the 2-3 zone. I think a big factor in whether a team does something well is whether the head coach really believes in doing it. Are Autry’s excited utterances about man for man and aggressive defense just noise? I get the impression that they are not, that he’s been sitting next to JB these recent years wishing to make some changes that he can now make.
One thing we know: He’s aggressively pursued the talent needed to play the game he’s described. He convinced Judah Mintz, his star point guard who is a driver, passer and combative defender to skip the NBA for another year. He went out and got JJ Starling, who played for Baldwinsville High school here before transferring to a high school and playing for Notre Dame last year. Mike Brey retired as coach there and JJ came home. He’s a similar player to Judah. He also got Chance Westry, another highly rated guard we were hot after two years back who went to Auburn, got hurt and decided he’d rather come back here. Then he got still another talented guard, Kyle Cuffe, from Kansas to transfer here. Throw in Quadir Copeland who was recruited here last year to be a point guard and you’ve got quite a backcourt. One problem: Judah and JJ both shot 30% from three last year. Westry was 0 for 14. Cuffe never even attempted one, (he played 3 minutes in one game before he got hurt). Copeland was 1 for 9. Not a Steph Curry in the bunch. SU fans note that Mintz showed improvement late in the year and in practice for this year and Starling did too. But what we need is a guy the defense will bend itself out of shape to cover. We had one in Joe Girard but he decided to spend his COVID year playing for Clemson, (twice against us), after four years of constant criticism here for his defense and ball-handling. Now we’ll see if we can do it without him. Ironically, Boeheim’s 2-3 zone might be the best way to defend us!
The outside shooting may have to come from the forwards. Chris Bell and Justin Taylor came here as freshmen with reputations as shooters. They didn’t do a lot else, so ripping the cords was why they were in there. Taylor had a huge early game against Bryant with 25 points but never more than 12 after that, with only three double figure games for the year. He did hit 39.3% of his three pointers. But he’s got to play and score a lot more than he did to warrant any special attention by the defense. Bell played and scored more but shot only 34.5% from outside, not good enough to be a team’s primary outside threat. Benny Williams who’s likely to play power forward, shot a surprising 39.6% but in a very limited sample, 48 attempts in 30 games. The defensive focus was elsewhere. The other forward, Maliq Brown was 0 for 0 and probably will be this year, too. Maybe someone will emerge here as a consistent outside threat but we really need to take the ball away and beat the other team downcourt to be successful.
Red also hit the transfer portal to bring in the biggest Syracuse player in history. Not the highest ranked recruit: the physically largest: Naheem McLeod, 7-4 265. He came here from Florida State where Leonard Hamilton collects 7 footers like sea shells and alternates guys at every position. Naheem played 13 minutes a game and averaged 3.8 points and 2.7 rebounds. He wanted to play more and the center spot opened up for SU because Jesse Edwards, after going from an unknown to a star here, followed the NIL road, (even though foreign players – he’s Dutch – aren’t supposed to get NIL) to West Virginia, only to see Bob Huggins’ career crash to an end. I hope he’s happy. Behind McLeod is 6-11 Mounir Hima, who has a 7-6 reach and once blocked 7 shots in 18 minutes of play against St. John’s. 6-11, (some say 7-1) Peter Carey is an athletic player who can shoot and pass but has only played 20 minutes of basketball in this decade. He had the Covid year, was injured his senior year in high school and then was operated on and redshirted last year, despite those 20 minutes. Then there’s William Patterson, a 7-2 high school recruit, (remember them?). That’s a lot of centers, big ones.
The problem is, none of those centers have ever started. Williams and Brown haven’t reached their potential at power forward. Neither have Bell or Taylor at small forward. Westry and Cuffe have hardly played at this level. Mintz and Starling have been the only guys who have played 30 minutes per game or scored in double figures. We’re going to depend on a lot of guys who haven’t really proven themselves yet.
And the schedule is loaded with teams that have proven themselves. Colgate’s beaten us twice in a row and will be just as good this year. We start with Tennessee in the Maui invitational, then could play Purdue or Gonzaga. Kansas, Marquette and UCLA are in the other half of the bracket, if it matters. It’s now the ACC-SEC challenge. We play LSU and in the very next game opens the ACC schedule at Virginia. Later we play Oregon and Georgetown before starting the main part of the conference schedule. It may take Red Autry a while to become a genius. That arc of his playing career may repeat for his head coaching career.
Or maybe he’ll surprise everyone and get some big victories that will get the confidence of players and fans bubbling over and that will give us the momentum for a great season. Maybe. I did a study of the winning percentages of coaches who won at least 500 games in their careers and their successors. I compared the winning percentages of each. 76% of the time the ‘legend’ had a better winning percentage than his successor. I was asked to compare the last few years of the legend’s career at their school to that of the successor. I picked the last 5 of the legend vs. the first 5 of the successor, (who often didn’t last that long) and the difference was less but there still was one: 64% of the time the old coach was better in his last five years than his successor. My gut feeling is that Red Autry will be in that other 36%: JB was 89-70, .560 in his last five years. That’s doable but hardly inevitable. But it’s easy to have gut feelings when the new guy is 0-0. Finding out will make this the most interesting SU season in a long time, but not necessarily the most joyous.
It's been interesting but not necessarily joyous, all right. The big issues:
- We haven't replaced Jesse Edwards. The four centers were two now-injured back-ups who played like it and two guys 'not ready for prime time'. That and the Benny Williams saga has caused us to play a power forward at center surrounded by two small forwards and that hasn't been adequate in ACC play.
- We haven't had much of an outside game. Benny Williams was 40% from three last year. This year it's 21%. Justin Taylor was 39%, is now 32%. A recent burst has gotten JJ Starling to 33%. Judah Mintz got off to a great start (14 of 30, 47%) but is 6 of 29 (21%) since. Chris Bell is at 36% but had been erratic. Overall, we are at a sub-par 32%. When we're not hitting, we degenerate into 1 on 1 moves, which become 1 on 5 moves because we aren't hitting.
- The effort of the team has varied, in playing defense, rebounding and getting loose balls. We've been overwhelming at times, (BC and NC State in the Dome). Of late it's been absent. The team now seems to be at a cross roads: is the season going to fall apart or is it just an ill-timed slump. Will Red's anger turn into player dedication and focus or is he losing the team?
- Does the team have any leadership, either on the court to get the team calmed down and into what they are supposed to do or off the field, setting examples in workouts and practices and is saying what needs to be said in the locker room?
We haven't bene an NCAA team all year and there's no point in even thinking about it now. I just want this time to pull out of the funk they are in and at least get another winning record vs. a tough schedule.
