Feb 26 - Feb 29 Tracking the Bubble + Games

[syrcuse]

What we really need more than anything is the teams USC and below to have a bad week.

Last Saturday started well and then it turned.

NO ...we need to beat somebody...anybody. next year...

 

[pearl31]

yeah this bubble stuff is about to become moot

 

[jncuse]

By my quick count, bubble teams this week so far have went 5-9. (not including us)

Very frustrating that we could not win this one. We would certainly would have been above the line tomorrow.

The positive: The last few days, gave me much more reason to believe that only winning the next 3 games is enough

The negative: After tonight's game, how in hell can we possibly get 3 in a row.

One at a time. If we somehow beat Clemson there will be a little more jump in here.

I'll probably keep tracking just because I enjoy doing it, and until its official.

 

[jdubs30]

Understood but isn't BC around 100 in the RPI? Also SU doesn't operate in a vacuum. Other games are going on as well this week that can affect SU's ability to climb up the ladder.

Btw the ranking of CU and BC is classic RPI nonsense. There's no way anybody would rank CU in the top ten (they were actually 8 when I checked earlier today) and yet BC is much better than 100 evidenced by the fact they're a two point favorite tonight.

I'm not even sure what this means. Clemson is a top 10 RPI because of who they beat and where they beat them - no one is talking about the AP pool. We are saying that putting a win vs. a top 10 RPI team in our RPI formula is extremely helpful, regardless of people think they are a true top 10 team.

And the fact that BC is better than top 100 in your mind just because they are a 2pt favorite means literally nothing. We lost to GaTech and Wake who are both ranked worse than BC.

 

[bpo57]

I'm not even sure what this means. Clemson is a top 10 RPI because of who they beat and where they beat them - no one is talking about the AP pool. We are saying that putting a win vs. a top 10 RPI team in our RPI formula is extremely helpful, regardless of people think they are a true top 10 team.

And the fact that BC is better than top 100 in your mind just because they are a 2pt favorite means literally nothing. We lost to GaTech and Wake who are both ranked worse than BC.

I think you're seeing things. Where did I mention anything about an AP Poll?

I'm talking strictly RPI. I saw Clemson was rolling lately between 8 and 10 on the RPI. Do you really think they're a top ten team? I don't think so. Just my opinion but I see them high teens.

BC has been playing people tough. They're not ultra talented but they play well together. My point about the betting line is that it's kinda odd for a 100 ranked team to be favored by 2 over a 44th ranked team, even at home. Once again just my opinion but I think BC is much better than 100, maybe somewhere in the 70s. If you don't agree then tell me why.

 

[pearl31]

I think you're seeing things. Where did I mention anything about an AP Poll?

I'm talking strictly RPI. I saw Clemson was rolling lately between 8 and 10 on the RPI. Do you really think they're a top ten team? I don't think so. Just my opinion but I see them high teens.

BC has been playing people tough. They're not ultra talented but they play well together. My point about the betting line is that it's kinda odd for a 100 ranked team to be favored by 2 over a 44th ranked team, even at home. Once again just my opinion but I think BC is much better than 100, maybe somewhere in the 70s. If you don't agree then tell me why.

Do you have even the slightest idea of how the RPI works?

 

[bpo57]

Do you have even the slightest idea of how the RPI works?

All I mentioned was that I believe that CU is wildly overrated in the RPI at 10 and that BC is underrated at 100. You have a different opinion?

Yeah I know how the RPI works - it's a foolish tool that tools believe has some value.

 

[jncuse]

A quick summary of tomorrow's game. Some of these deep down out of it teams have to feel better if they can make a run after the bubble is 5-10 this week.

Northwestern at Penn St - Penn St needs to make run probably to B10 finals.

Virginia at Louisville - For Louisville this is the signature win to put them over the top, I doubt they get it. They will then be in trouble because at NC ST is no easy feat.

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee St - Probably best that Western Kentucky this one, to weaken MTSU's chance to be a bid stealer if they don't win the CUSA tourney.

Arizona St vs California - Arizona St should win, but a Q4 loss would take them off more than a few brackets. California essentially equals Pitt.

Oregon St vs Washington - Quad 4 game so Washington better not lose.

 

[pearl31]

A quick summary of tomorrow's game. Some of these deep down out of it teams have to feel better if they can make a run after the bubble is 5-10 this week.

Northwestern at Penn St - Penn St needs to make run probably to B10 finals.

Virginia at Louisville - For Louisville this is the signature win to put them over the top, I doubt they get it. They will then be in trouble because at NC ST is no easy feat.

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee St - Probably best that Western Kentucky this one, to weaken MTSU's chance to be a bid stealer if they don't win the CUSA tourney.

Arizona St vs California - Arizona St should win, but a Q4 loss would take them off more than a few brackets. California essentially equals Pitt.

Oregon St vs Washington - Quad 4 game so Washington better not lose.

wow Org St is quad 4?

 

[bpo57]

wow Org St is quad 4?

Haven't won a game on the road yet this year.

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse is 2 out of 43, on the brackets from this morning... not unexpected.

Not many teams left that can make a simple move up into the bracket.. i.e one quality win. Washington, UCLA, perhaps Nebraska. Everybody else, including us, I would think would need at least 2 quality wins to get back near the line.

 

[pearl31]

Syracuse is 2 out of 43, on the brackets from this morning... not unexpected.

Not many teams left that can make a simple move up into the bracket.. i.e one quality win. Washington, UCLA, perhaps Nebraska. Everybody else, including us, I would think would need at least 2 quality wins to get back near the line.

As we've been saying since about 15m left in last night's game - our team doesn't appear capable of winning a q1 game at this point - but there is still a door for them that is slightly ajar...

 

[MSOrange]

As we've been saying since about 15m left in last night's game - our team doesn't appear capable of winning a q1 game at this point - but there is still a door for them that is slightly ajar...

I'd like to think anything is possible in the Dome but we haven't exactly held serve at home this year.

 

[pearl31]

lol UVA laying an egg so far vs lvlle

 

[jdubs30]

Maybe I'm alone here, but the more VaTech, Louisville and Miami win - the better for us. I think all 3 are ahead of us, with VaTech/Mimi being locks. Ville would be ahead of us even with us a loss tonight. The more the 3 of them win, the better our top 3 wins look (Buffalo is in there too).

 

[pearl31]

Maybe I'm alone here, but the more VaTech, Louisville and Miami win - the better for us. I think all 3 are ahead of us, with VaTech/Mimi being locks. Ville would be ahead of us even with us a loss tonight. The more the 3 of them win, the better our top 3 wins look (Buffalo is in there too).

agree about VT and Miami - but l'vlle is pretty close to us and two losses for them these last two games, SU and lvlle would be essentially neck and neck heading into ACCT (provided of course that we can somehow beat clemson )

 

[pearl31]

watching this UVA-lvlle game tonight I can't help but think:
- how did we win @ lvlle??
- how does UVA have just 1 acc loss?

 

[MSOrange]

Down goes Louisville at the buzzer. Amazing finish!

 

[orangenirvana]

Wow. Heartbreaker.

 

[pearl31]

I turned it to another game after Jerome's missed FT w .9 remaining - how the he11 did it happen?????

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

i don't wish what just happened to Louisville on ANYONE...except Gtown and UConn.







And Louisville.

 

[MSOrange]

I turned it to another game after Jerome's missed FT w .9 remaining - how the he11 did it happen?????

Courtesy of Ragman2000

Virginia, down 4, shoots desperation 3 with .9 sec left but is fouled.
Virginia hits 2 FT's and misses 3rd on purpose but gets charged with a lane violation.
L'ville ball under Virginia basket, still .9 sec left. Player runs the baseline and isn't allowed, turnover.
Virginia shoots deperation 3 at the buzzer and banks it in.

 

[Briancuse]

i don't wish what just happened to Louisville on ANYONE...except Gtown and UConn.

For someone who didn't see the game what exactly happened





And Louisville.

 

[pearl31]

wow. just brutal

and even moreso because it *could* end up being the difference for in/out of tourney

 

[orangenirvana]

If Louisville loses to NC State on Saturday and loses their ACCT game, are they dancing at 19-13?