Feb 26 - Feb 29 Tracking the Bubble + Games

[pearl31]

If Louisville loses to NC State on Saturday and loses their ACCT game, are they dancing at 19-13?

probably not - depends on rest of bubble - that .9 second implosion might've cost them dearly

 

[bpo57]

If Louisville loses to NC State on Saturday and loses their ACCT game, are they dancing at 19-13?

Very unlikely.

 

[bpo57]

watching this UVA-lvlle game tonight I can't help but think:
- how did we win @ lvlle??
- how does UVA have just 1 acc loss?

We actually agree on this one. I've been saying for a few weeks that I can't believe UVA has rolled through the ACC like they have. They're a decent squad but nowhere near what their record would indicate, imo. I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks but I can't help but feel that it's as much an indictment of the ACC as it is that UVA is really good.

 

[nycfan]

Courtesy of Ragman2000

Virginia, down 4, shoots desperation 3 with .9 sec left but is fouled.
Virginia hits 2 FT's and misses 3rd on purpose but gets charged with a lane violation.
L'ville ball under Virginia basket, still .9 sec left. Player runs the baseline and isn't allowed, turnover.
Virginia shoots deperation 3 at the buzzer and banks it in.

And to look at it another way -- Louisville hit 2 free throws with 5.8 seconds left to get it up to the 4. So when you factor in that UVA had to go the length of the floor in 5.8, down 4, it almost impossible to actually win the game at that point in college ball (without the NBA possession at half-court after a timeout). And I think that most would say that Louisville "lost it" much more than UVA "won it" -- it required a "perfect storm" of 3 separate blunders in the final 1 second of the game : 1) fouling on a three, 2) the moving violation on the inbound pass, 3) allowing them to get off the three-pointer with only 0.9 to work with. Not sure I have seen a bigger choke this season.

 

[jncuse]

I am just reading up on this thread now. Louisville OMG, what a dumb and terrible way to lose.

 

[jncuse]

Washington in a battle with Oregon St.

The teams below the bubble are definetely underwhelming this week (especially if Washington loses). Basically if you are below and you get one or two quality wins, you will move up much quicker.

Great opportunity for Nebraska tomorrow. Go Michigan.

 

[jncuse]

Current Bracket Matrix (Before Thursday's Games)

Considers all teams that are seeded 9 or below. My view is that as a 9 seed if you lose your next 2 games to close the season (1 regular + 1 tourney), you are no lock. So they are being tracked. For many of those teams the chances of them losing the 2 are unlikely, but no matter the opponent, must win games are no fun at this time of year.

A few new appearances on this list, but some that we saw coming.

Out of 43
Florida St 43
Arizona St 43
USC 43
Oklahoma 42
Missouri 42
St. Bonaventure 42
St. Mary's 41
Louisville 41
Baylor 39
Kansas St 35
Providence 35
Alabama 33
Texas 27
--------------
UCLA 16
Washington 9
Nebraska 6
Miss St 4
Western Kentucky 3
Marquette 3
Syracuse 2
Utah 2
Boise St 2

There is not much strength below that bubble line. After Nebraska it is wide open, and I would think all teams need 2 quality wins to move above the line, but perhaps right into the site of a bubble buster.

 

[jncuse]

If we lose to Clemson, I will be happy enough that Washington won tonight. But certainly would have preferred they lose until we are clearly out.

 

[pearl31]

Q: better to have Loyola bomb out early in this Mcv tourney, or win the championship?

 

[Knicks411]

And to look at it another way -- Louisville hit 2 free throws with 5.8 seconds left to get it up to the 4. So when you factor in that UVA had to go the length of the floor in 5.8, down 4, it almost impossible to actually win the game at that point in college ball (without the NBA possession at half-court after a timeout). And I think that most would say that Louisville "lost it" much more than UVA "won it" -- it required a "perfect storm" of 3 separate blunders in the final 1 second of the game : 1) fouling on a three, 2) the moving violation on the inbound pass, 3) allowing them to get off the three-pointer with only 0.9 to work with. Not sure I have seen a bigger choke this season.

Forget this season, is that the most unlikely loss of all time?

First, you had to foul a 3 point shooter with 1 second left in a game you're up by 4. That does happen, from time to time, so ok. Then, you need a lane violation on the third free throw, followed by a travel on the inbounds pass!! Those 2 things happening back to back, i can't even put the odds on that. and then they banked in a 3!

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Forget this season, is that the most unlikely loss of all time?

First, you had to foul a 3 point shooter with 1 second left in a game you're up by 4. That does happen, from time to time, so ok. Then, you need a lane violation on the third free throw, followed by a travel on the inbounds pass!! Those 2 things happening back to back, i can't even put the odds on that. and then they banked in a 3!

legitimately the biggest collapse i can remember.

 

[bpo57]

Forget this season, is that the most unlikely loss of all time?

First, you had to foul a 3 point shooter with 1 second left in a game you're up by 4. That does happen, from time to time, so ok. Then, you need a lane violation on the third free throw, followed by a travel on the inbounds pass!! Those 2 things happening back to back, i can't even put the odds on that. and then they banked in a 3!

The funny thing was that the play-by-play guy (Brando) was saying that the Louisville player must have been told to foul the shooter on purpose. Whaa? Up four and you foul a three point shooter with less than :05 to play?

 

[Knicks411]

The funny thing was that the play-by-play guy (Brando) was saying that the Louisville player must have been told to foul the shooter on purpose. Whaa? Up four and you foul a three point shooter with less than :05 to play?

I didnt catch that, did he think it was a 3 point lead? What a thing to say.

 

[pearl31]

I didnt catch that, did he think it was a 3 point lead? What a thing to say.

Brando is a moron. But at least he managed to get in his patented and always-clever “the bank is open late” upon Hunter’s shot going in

 

[orangenirvana]

Nebraska's bubble likely pops today. Getting manhandled in the Garden.

 

[Cuseball]

Nebraska's bubble likely pops today. Getting manhandled in the Garden.

this is an excellent hope for whatever hopes we have. Bottom line is we will have to win three games but it's good to eliminate all the teams we can

Cuse!

 

[jncuse]

Q: better to have Loyola bomb out early in this Mcv tourney, or win the championship?

Better for them to win tourney

They only have a moderate chance. at best, of an at large if they lose, but better not to test it.

EDIT - Didn't realize they already played today. They won 54-50.

 

[jncuse]

Nebraska down 14. Bottom of the bubble is just falling apart. All it takes is a few teams to stumble that are currently in, and a run by any teams of 2 to 3 games that are well out.

 

[Briancuse]

legitimately the biggest collapse i can remember.

Right up there with Maryland blowing an 11 or lead to duke in the final min.

 

[pearl31]

‘brasky got pasted, finish thr season w 1 q1 win

 

[Knicks411]

So is the consensus here that we need 3 wins from here on out, at least due in part to the first round ACC game likely to be against someone against whom a win would be no help?

 

[Cuseball]

So is the consensus here that we need 3 wins from here on out, at least due in part to the first round ACC game likely to be against someone against whom a win would be no help?

I think so.

• Clemson would be Quadrant 1
• 1st round ACC likely against Wake or Ga Tech is Quadrant 3
• 2nd round ACC against likely one of (UNC, Clemson, Miami, NC State or Va tech) all could tie at 11-7 and all would be Quadrant 1 (except NC State Quadrant 2)
• 3rd round would then be against one of the same group as above

So if we win our next three that would give us 4 Quadrant 1 wins which is actually the same number as Duke, Clemson, and one more than Kentucky, Zona, MSU, Ohio State

We would be sweating but I think we would have a decent chance

Cuse!

 

[jncuse]

‘brasky got pasted, finish thr season w 1 q1 win

Sure, but don't forget those 2 Q2 wins.

 

[bpo57]

Sure, but don't forget those 2 Q2 wins.

Straightforward question, appreciate a very straightforward answer. This doesn't requires a lot of data crunching, just a gut feel. If you drop SU into the B1G this year and give them Nebraska's exact B1G schedule - you think they do better than 13-5?

 

[jncuse]

Straightforward question, appreciate a very straightforward answer. This doesn't requires a lot of data crunching, just a gut feel. If you drop SU into the B1G this year and give them Nebraska's exact B1G schedule - you think they do better than 13-5?

12 or 13

They don't pick teams based on their ability to beat mediocre teams over and over.