Free Throws

[SWC75]

A poster suggested that free throw problems have been chronic through Jim Boeheim’s coaching career. I decided to look at the numbers.


Here are the season free throw percentages for Syracuse, it’s opponents and NCAA Division 1 for the last 30 years prior to this season. The sources are the SU media Guide, (the numbers are also on the website) and the 2012-2013 NCAA Men’s Basketball Record Book.

YEAR SYRACUSE OPPONENT NCAA
1982-83 .712 .704 .685
1983-84 .751 .683 .689
1984-85 .715 .697 .689
1985-86 .686 .701 .691
1986-87 .650 .694 .691
1987-88 .600 .671 .689
1988-89 .611 .680 .691
1989-90 .647 .739 .689
1990-91 .645 .661 .686
1991-92 .685 .675 .681
1992-93 .686 .675 .677
1993-94 .715 .657 .671
1994-95 .662 .701 .676
1995-96 .705 .627 .674
1996-97 .642 .688 .674
1997-98 .676 .652 .675
1998-99 .663 .694 .678
1999-00 .705 .669 .681
2000-01 .715 .654 .685
2001-02 .650 .682 .690
2002-03 .694 .652 .694
2003-04 .643 .701 .691
2004-05 .667 .677 .687
2005-06 .643 .701 .691
2006-07 .695 .630 .690
2007-08 .668 .696 .691
2008-09 .645 .630 .690
2009-10 .677 .627 .689
2010-11 .665 .667 .693
2011-12 .698 .676 .691
Average .674 .674 .686
(I averaged the percentages. I didn’t add up the attempts and makes over 30 years and re-compute the percentage.)

For all our angst over free throw shooting over the years, there is no net difference between our free throw percentage over the years and that of our opponents. I didn’t compute it over the conference season because this is one stat that should not be affected by the strength of the opponent. Alcorn State should be able to hit free throws as well as Louisville. It’s interesting that both SU and the opponents are significantly behind the NCAA average for the same period. I’ve heard that the Carrier Dome background is not conducive to three point shooting. The same may be true for free throws.

But the idea that free throw shooting has chronically plagued SU over the years and Jim Boeheim doesn’t know how to teach it is not supported by the historical record. We all can remember when missed free throws might have cost us games, (you don’t have to think back very far) but we don’t remember the times it cost the other team. A big factor from year to year is who is getting fouled. It helps to have a big man, (like Hakim Warrick) who can make them pay or a point guard who is nearly automatic, (Gerry McNamara). Stationary jump shooters like Matt Roe might be great at shooting fouls but it barely matters because they don’t get to the line. If you’ve got a guy who gets fouled and can’t make them like Arinze Onuaku or Stevie Thompson, it can be painful to watch.

So far this season we are hitting .629 and the opposition is hitting .674, their historical average. I don’t see anybody on this team with bad form or a psychological block. I just think the team hasn’t been concentrating enough. Hopefully, we’ll pull out of this slump and get the percentage back up to where it should be.
　

 

[Gabjon]

Good stuff!

 

[SBU72]

A poster suggested that free throw problems have been chronic through Jim Boeheim’s coaching career. I decided to look at the numbers.


Here are the season free throw percentages for Syracuse, it’s opponents and NCAA Division 1 for the last 30 years prior to this season. The sources are the SU media Guide, (the numbers are also on the website) and the 2012-2013 NCAA Men’s Basketball Record Book.

YEAR SYRACUSE OPPONENT NCAA
1982-83 .712 .704 .685
1983-84 .751 .683 .689
1984-85 .715 .697 .689
1985-86 .686 .701 .691
1986-87 .650 .694 .691
1987-88 .600 .671 .689
1988-89 .611 .680 .691
1989-90 .647 .739 .689
1990-91 .645 .661 .686
1991-92 .685 .675 .681
1992-93 .686 .675 .677
1993-94 .715 .657 .671
1994-95 .662 .701 .676
1995-96 .705 .627 .674
1996-97 .642 .688 .674
1997-98 .676 .652 .675
1998-99 .663 .694 .678
1999-00 .705 .669 .681
2000-01 .715 .654 .685
2001-02 .650 .682 .690
2002-03 .694 .652 .694
2003-04 .643 .701 .691
2004-05 .667 .677 .687
2005-06 .643 .701 .691
2006-07 .695 .630 .690
2007-08 .668 .696 .691
2008-09 .645 .630 .690
2009-10 .677 .627 .689
2010-11 .665 .667 .693
2011-12 .698 .676 .691
Average .674 .674 .686
(I averaged the percentages. I didn’t add up the attempts and makes over 30 years and re-compute the percentage.)

For all our angst over free throw shooting over the years, there is no net difference between our free throw percentage over the years and that of our opponents. I didn’t compute it over the conference season because this is one stat that should not be affected by the strength of the opponent. Alcorn State should be able to hit free throws as well as Louisville. It’s interesting that both SU and the opponents are significantly behind the NCAA average for the same period. I’ve heard that the Carrier Dome background is not conducive to three point shooting. The same may be true for free throws.

But the idea that free throw shooting has chronically plagued SU over the years and Jim Boeheim doesn’t know how to teach it is not supported by the historical record. We all can remember when missed free throws might have cost us games, (you don’t have to think back very far) but we don’t remember the times it cost the other team. A big factor from year to year is who is getting fouled. It helps to have a big man, (like Hakim Warrick) who can make them pay or a point guard who is nearly automatic, (Gerry McNamara). Stationary jump shooters like Matt Roe might be great at shooting fouls but it barely matters because they don’t get to the line. If you’ve got a guy who gets fouled and can’t make them like Arinze Onuaku or Stevie Thompson, it can be painful to watch.

So far this season we are hitting .629 and the opposition is hitting .674, their historical average. I don’t see anybody on this team with bad form or a psychological block. I just think the team hasn’t been concentrating enough. Hopefully, we’ll pull out of this slump and get the percentage back up to where it should be.
　

Realize that it may be next to impossible (at least extremely hard) but what is the difference between home and away/neutral court percentages? could point to problems in the dome.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I sort of disagree with the conclusion. We play alot of crappy teams. To say that equaling them in ft percentage is not a black eye on our FT shooting is being fairly lenient.

 

[Orange Barrel]

We play alot of crappy teams.

This myth has been debunked several times here and just about everywhere else in the aftermath of #900. Not sure how it would apply in this thread anyway. As SWC explained in his first paragraph:

because this is one stat that should not be affected by the strength of the opponent. Alcorn State should be able to hit free throws as well as Louisville.

 

[OttoMets]

I appreciate the research, but it doesn't support your conclusion.

That we shoot as well as our opponents does not mean we shoot well.

 

[Orange Barrel]

I appreciate the research, but it doesn't support your conclusion.

That we shoot as well as our opponents does not mean we shoot well.

I don't see where he concludes that at all. Puts it in perspective, yes. But we suck. There's no denying that.

 

[OttoMets]

I don't see where he concludes that at all. Puts it in perspective, yes. But we suck. There's no denying that.

"But the idea that free throw shooting has chronically plagued SU over the years and Jim Boeheim doesn’t know how to teach it is not supported by the historical record."

Maybe my inference is wrong, but saying that our free-throw shooting hasn't been a problem seems to suggest that we have shot free throws well.

 

[ithacat]

Thanks for pulling all that together. Basically the Orange have been better than the national average 3 times this century.

 

[Gabjon]

Basketball talent has nothing to do with foul shooting. Some of the greatest players in history could not shoot foul shots to save there lives. Conversely great foul shooting does not mean you can play worth a lick. No one has every been drafted based on their foul shooting ability. SWC75 data and it's conclusion are very fair. If we are even on foul shooting historically then historically foul shooting has been a non-factor in winning or losing, which is fair and accurate. Less talented teams may have better foul shooters because "talent" is usually based on athleticism and the less athletic players maybe more skilled in shooting foul shots for example since they can't run and jump with the more "talented" players. Now that would be an interesting statistic to research.

 

[Orange Barrel]

"But the idea that free throw shooting has chronically plagued SU over the years and Jim Boeheim doesn’t know how to teach it is not supported by the historical record."

Maybe my inference is wrong, but saying that our free-throw shooting hasn't been a problem seems to suggest that we have shot free throws well.

Semantics I guess. I interpret it as we suck but so does everybody else and it hasn't killed us.

 

[OttoMets]

Semantics I guess. I interpret it as we suck but so does everybody else and it hasn't killed us.

Gotcha

 

[pearl31]

how about somehow identifying the losses over the years in which SU's poor FT shooting was the deciding factor...

 

[suinaustin]

how about somehow identifying the losses over the years in which SU's poor FT shooting was the deciding factor...

Good idea pearl. Why don't you jump right on that and let us know the results. Would be an interesting stat.

 

[CiscoCuse]

Thanks for the research SWC. It was surprising to see that the avg of NCAA Div 1 below 70% for all of those years and our opponents at or above 70% only 6 years! Again Thanks!

 

[SWC75]

"But the idea that free throw shooting has chronically plagued SU over the years and Jim Boeheim doesn’t know how to teach it is not supported by the historical record."

Maybe my inference is wrong, but saying that our free-throw shooting hasn't been a problem seems to suggest that we have shot free throws well.

We have been below the national average over the years but equal to our opponents. The fact that we and our opponents have shot the same percentage suggests that the difference between them and the national average is based on something else, such as a possible increased degree of difficulty in the Dome. The opposition has been taught to shoot by hundreds of head and assistant coaches and possibly "free throw doctors", etc. So if we are shooting at the same level, I don't see a problem with Boeheim and his coaches in this area.

 

[Gabjon]

We have been below the national average over the years but equal to our opponents. The fact that we and our opponents have shot the same percentage suggests that the difference between them and the national average is based on something else, such as a possible increased degree of difficulty in the Dome. The opposition has been taught to shoot by hundreds of head and assistant coaches and possibly "free throw doctors", etc. So if we are shooting at the same level, I don't see a problem with Boeheim and his coaches in this area.

Strategy plays a huge part in this and is probably the reason why our opponents average is below the national average. We have always intentionally fouled bad foul shooters while making good foul shooters score from the field, it played a big part on our NC win. Of coarse this strategy has been used against as well.

 

[SWC75]

Strategy plays a huge part in this and is probably the reason why our opponents average is below the national average. We have always intentionally fouled bad foul shooters while making good foul shooters score from the field, it played a big part on our NC win. Of coarse this strategy has been used against as well.

And by everyone else.

 

[Gabjon]

And by everyone else.

But that strategy is only applied in very competitive games. We never intentionally foul weak teams in our OOC schedule it. It's not a universal strategy employed across the board because it has several drawbacks like fouling out and the double bonus. So coaches only do it in end of game situations JB does it more often than that.

 

[Cheriehoop]

I sort of disagree with the conclusion. We play alot of crappy teams. To say that equaling them in ft percentage is not a black eye on our FT shooting is being fairly lenient.

Huh this makes no sense. Here's the NCAA stats for free throws so far this year. Do you really see an association between free throw shooting and team success? Thank heavens we don't play Central Connecticut or Lehigh. I don't know any statistic that says there is a correlation.


http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/150

 

[SWC75]

Huh this makes no sense. Here's the NCAA stats for free throws so far this year. Do you really see an association between free throw shooting and team success? Thank heavens we don't play Central Connecticut or Lehigh. I don't know any statistic that says there is a correlation.


http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/150

Central Connecticut is our next opponent!

 

[Cheriehoop]

Central Connecticut is our next opponent!

Yes and they are obviously underrated. Connecticut knew this and has smartly ducked playing them this year.

 

[shermstheman]

Thanks for the research- I believe I'm the poster you referred to. I guess the perception of poor foul shooting has been emphasized by many announcers of the years combined with seeing plenty of futility at times of need. I'm sure we can all recollect, and wince, at the many times our poor foul shooting has cost us or made things agonizing. It does seem that we've been pretty good in crucial moments over the years but that doesn't make for the fodder that poor shooting does.

 

[SWC75]

Thanks for the research- I believe I'm the poster you referred to. I guess the perception of poor foul shooting has been emphasized by many announcers of the years combined with seeing plenty of futility at times of need. I'm sure we can all recollect, and wince, at the many times our poor foul shooting has cost us or made things agonizing. It does seem that we've been pretty good in crucial moments over the years but that doesn't make for the fodder that poor shooting does.

Our problem is that we never remember when the opposition missed critical or too many free throws.

 

[SWC75]

Realize that it may be next to impossible (at least extremely hard) but what is the difference between home and away/neutral court percentages? could point to problems in the dome.

It would take looking up the box scores for every SU game in that period to see what the free throw numbers were. Be my guest:
http://suathletics.com/sports/2009/2/3/sidebar_52.aspx?path=mbasket