Yep, the extremely hard to grasp (and frustrating) concept is that, if you throw out the top handful of elite coaches and the bottom handful of dumpster fire coaches from the P5 you are left with most coaches who are are only worth about 1 game in either direction plus another 2-3 games of luck that can run in either direction in any year(s) due to outside factors (schedule, matchups, injuries, calls, bad beats etc.).
Also much more of the quality of the head coach impacts the program outside of a dozen Saturday's a year, probably 80/20 (And this is coming from somebody as frustrated with Dino’s game day decisions as anyone). Getting good players, with the right frames/athleticism, in a solid scheme, with the right training regimen, coached by high quality coaches, fostering the right motivations (family/togetherness) outweighs by far how often we go for it on 4th down or calling too many runs or deep passes or playing the ‘wrong’ player somewhere.
Things like athletic/football infrastructure, practice/weight room facilities, housing, nutrition, staff size, staff quality/budget, fan support, location all matter much more than if you got a head coach who is average or worth 1 game above (basically the best you can ever afford unless your Bama or OSU or Clemson etc). For example, there is nobody on earth that can convince me that if Dino was given $1mm to hire an OC in 2019/20 he would have run with Lynch or Dumpster Gilbert the cowboy (or Kirk Martin for a more reasonable assistant QB coach budget). Similarly nobody can convince me that if Dino was able to match Nebraska’s offer for White that White wouldn't have stayed (now I may prefer Long but that‘s not the point). $1mm is close to the median OC/DC for a top 50 program btw, not as extravagant as it sounded even 8-10 years ago.
I don’t know if Dino is worth +1 game or -1 game but I do feel is not a dumpster fire or elite (FHCSS was a dumpster fire imo). Given how well he runs a clean program with players we can be proud of, retains most players in an NIL world (with less NIL $$$), has been a net beneficiary of the transfer portal so far (speculation by me) means he should be given as much rope and support as possible. 1 advantage I didn’t mention above is continuity. If you give someone 8-10 years to build, learn, make adjustments you are much more likely to make incremental progress than trying to find the next +1 coach every 4-5 years. Heck sometimes you don’t even know what improvements need to be made until you run into said issues.
I hope we win what I think we will this year (8-10 games) and Dino stays with us another 5+ years until one of his assistants is ready to take over (Beck?).