Gun to my head predictions...

[reedny]

Generally, staying a second year isn't a problem in terms of NBA perception.

If Mali were to come back, he'd be [presumably] the focal point of the offense, the team's leading scorer, and have every chance to show his game diversification. If he can't do the latter, that's on him. The athleticism is there, the size is there, and the shot is there. Now he just needs to put it together.

He might still be drafted in the first round, but I haven't seen anything from any reputable source outside of Ford projecting him in the first round. I've seen numerous lists / mocks that don't have him being drafted at all. Ford appears to be an outlier in his projection. I'd assumed that a dose of that reality from the NBA projection committee would be enough to convince him to come back, but it doesn't appear to be the case.

I'm hearing all the same things, but there's still time. Let's see what happens in the combine. I think the experience of defending and trying to score against NBA level talent, and the feedback he'll get, will be invaluable. After going through the process, he'll have the usual 3 choices: 1) If a GM offers him a first round promise, clearly he'll sign with an agent; 2) if he doesn't get a promise, he could try for a rotation and risk winding up in the D-League; or 3) return to school and become the team leader. To me, door #2 is a snake pit. And I'm pretty sure JB's telling him the same thing. It's up to the young man to decide his own future. BOL. We'll be watching on ESPN.

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

Malachi returns: 10%
Yurtseven commits: 85%
Mystery situation evolves: 15%
T Thompson wears Orange: 75%
Q Green wears Orange: 75%
Diallo reclassifies: 1%
Diallo wears Orange: 30%

So, 180% chance TT, Quade, & Hami all wear Orange!!!

 

[reedny]

Nothing like a Red Rider 200-shot range model air rifle to bring out the truth.

 

[Briancuse]

What seems to get confused however is that if this is accurate it is just as much a reason why he should go as it is why he should not. If as you say he is a fringe NBA talent, and he is reasonably confident of a first round selection, then (from a purely basketball standpoint) of course he should go.

Equally confusing is how so many discuss this decision with such certainty, while analyzing it in the abstract with only a fraction of the data that informs the decision.

Why is just being a first round pick good enough?

 

[llandz]

Once again, I can say he informed staff last week he is not returning. But again until he hires an agent, he can change his mind. As of now his intent is not to return.
As far as all of the above comments... First for a lot of money he can better handle and grow the thick skin, I could for 2-3 million.
Next...the better college players mostly are leaving. They are forced to go to college even if they are not necessarily college material. Either way, if they get drafted they get what is a lot of money to some of these kids, and their families. They need to do what they need to do. It has nothing to do with Syracuse or loyalty or whether or not they want to be here. That is the nature of the top athletes in college ball these days. I guarantee you that he loved his year at Syracuse and he will bleed Orange going forward. He is one of our family for that one year, and for that NCAA FF run. Let him move on and go if that is his desire.

 

[pearl31]

Once again, I can say he informed staff last week he is not returning. But again until he hires an agent, he can change his mind. As of now his intent is not to return.
As far as all of the above comments... First for a lot of money he can better handle and grow the thick skin, I could for 2-3 million.
Next...the better college players mostly are leaving. They are forced to go to college even if they are not necessarily college material. Either way, if they get drafted they get what is a lot of money to some of these kids, and their families. They need to do what they need to do. It has nothing to do with Syracuse or loyalty or whether or not they want to be here. That is the nature of the top athletes in college ball these days. I guarantee you that he loved his year at Syracuse and he will bleed Orange going forward. He is one of our family for that one year, and for that NCAA FF run. Let him move on and go if that is his desire.

agree with all.
but there's also nothing wrong with opining on the poor business/career decision he seems to be in the process of making :noidea:

 

[dasher]

Why is just being a first round pick good enough?

3 years guaranteed money. In three years he could have 7.5 million like Ennis. You would turn that down to come back and play one more year at Syracuse? Guys get hurt. the kid from Louisville a few years back comes to mind. Brian, you pick fruit when it is ripe. Now, if he isn't going to be a first round pick, different story.

 

[Briancuse]

3 years guaranteed money. In three years he could have 7.5 million like Ennis. You would turn that down to come back and play one more year at Syracuse? Guys get hurt. the kid from Louisville a few years back comes to mind. Brian, you pick fruit when it is ripe. Now, if he isn't going to be a first round pick, different story.

But is the fruit ripe right now? That is the question, I guess we will find out at the combine.

 

[AlaskaSU]

7.5 million buys a lot of fruit.

 

[llandz]

agree with all.
but there's also nothing wrong with opining on the poor business/career decision he seems to be in the process of making :noidea:

Agree with your statement also. But if someone flashed a couple of million in front of me I can't say that I am sure what I would do either. They do not see the bigger picture or the triple of that amount he would make staying one more year.

 

[W'boro'Cuse315]

Following our recruiting & reading everything both on here & Twitter, it's actually, IMO, fairly obvious who the "mystery recruit" is & why those in the know won't divulge.

If he doesn't end up here, I wonder if those in the know would still divulge after the fact. I can see reasons why they may choose not to.

 

[manleyzoo]

I don't get where the $7.5 million comes from. Say Mali is drafted late in the first round, rookie slot money for the 24th pick, for example, is about $1M in both year 1 and year 2 guaranteed, with an option for year 3 at $1.2M. Teams are allowed to pay up to 120 percent over or 80 percent of the slot. Here's the link to NBA draft slot money for this year.

 

[manleyzoo]

Agree with your statement also. But if someone flashed a couple of million in front of me I can't say that I am sure what I would do either. They do not see the bigger picture or the triple of that amount he would make staying one more year.

Only a few see the bigger picture--most spend the money as fast as it comes to them and within three years are gone. It's very different when you're playing for money against grown men than when you're playing for fun in college with guys your own age.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

This thread is a confirmation bias classic. If you were cool with Malachi declaring you're cool with him staying in. If you didn't like him entering the draft, you're convinced he's making a terrible decision to stay in.

I mean, geez. Also, come on, get over the D league everybody.

 

[Alsacs]

3 years guaranteed money. In three years he could have 7.5 million like Ennis. You would turn that down to come back and play one more year at Syracuse? Guys get hurt. the kid from Louisville a few years back comes to mind. Brian, you pick fruit when it is ripe. Now, if he isn't going to be a first round pick, different story.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

I highly doubt he would get 7.5 million. That would project him to be the 7th or 8th overall pick.

Also, only the first 2 years of first round rookie contracts are now guaranteed. Years 3 and 4 are team options.

Pick 15 is guaranteed 2 yrs 3.2 million dollars while Pick 30 is guaranteed 2 yrs 1.9 million dollars..

So if you go after the lottery players are basically guaranteed 2 yrs and on average 2.5 million dollars before taxes(about 40% after state and federal and agents fees) and after taxes it would be 1.75 million.

The kid from Louisville Geogui Dieng left because of age. Dieng was older and had to strike while he was 21 years old. Malachi's age is not the same. Diengwas also a first team all-conference player and showed his potential in college. Malachi wasn't even a top 15 player in the ACC last year. I understand if the kid wants to go pro because it is his dream but going in the first round after the lottery is not lifetime money. The big bucks for rookies goes to top 10 draft picks.

Jonny Flynn got 8.1 million for being the 6th pick. Wes Johnson got 10.5 million for being the 4th pick. Michael Carter Williams got 6 million for being the 11th pick.

I wish the kid good luck and will root for him but this decision screams I want out of college more than it does I want lifetime changing money.

 

[Alsacs]

This thread is a confirmation bias classic. If you were cool with Malachi declaring you're cool with him staying in. If you didn't like him entering the draft, you're convinced he's making a terrible decision to stay in.

I mean, geez. Also, come on, get over the D league everybody.

Everybody is cool or better has to be cool with him staying in the draft. It is the kid's decision not any fan's decision. People having opinions if it is a poor or good decision is up to that person.

Donte Green left after 1 year. he made 5.1 million dollars in 4 NBA seasons. Did he make the right decision? That is up to one person to decide Donte Green not Syracuse fans or anyone else.

I don't see any confirmation bias classic. People have no bleeping right to tell someone else what to do. The D League point is completely irrelevant. If the kid wants to get paid to play basketball then obviously who cares where he gets PT as it won't be in an NBA rotation next year most likely so obviously he would need PT in the D league.

 

[Dave85]

Now I just wish I had a better feeling about Yurtseven's eligibility situation

It seems people are 85% sure he will not be eligible.

 

[Dave85]

We need scoring next year.

May I introduce to you Tyus "Kid Mamba" Battle. Oh wait, he's gone, somewhere a basketball just went through a hoop.

 

[RF2044]

NBA Draft.net
NBA mock draft siteNBADraft.netsees Richardson as a first-round talent if he decides to declare for the Draft and Gbinije as a second-round pick.

The site has Richardson heading to the Charlotte Hornets with the 24th overall pick with Gbinije heading to the Boston Celtics at pick No.35.

I said "reputable" source. NBAdraft.net is one of the least accurate, reliable, and informed sources out there.

 

[cusetown1]

At pick 18 this is what Tyler Ennis is making http://www.celebritiesmoney.com/tyler-ennis-salary-net-worth-point-guard-of-phoenix-suns-nba-team/
Year 3 is not guaranteed. Malachi is not going to be top 20 IMO. At the very best case I think he is fringe 1st round this year. Ennis is not guaranteed to make 7.5 million and Malachi isn't either . If Malachi is top 20 he should probably go though .

 

[RF2044]

You're probably right to a degree but I have seen several guys fall from where they would have been drafted by staying for another year. The Buddy Hield stories are not that frequent. I don't think he's going in the first round but it only takes one team to take a shine to him. If that happens then he should go even if it is fairly late in the first round. If he's going just to go - (draft position be damned) as some have speculated - then he could be making a very big mistake.

Buddy Hield isn't a good comparison. He was a four year player who is leaving after his senior year.

The bias you're describing generally doesn't happen after sophomore year--it happens to guys who stay longer than that.

 

[RF2044]

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale

I highly doubt he would get 7.5 million. That would project him to be the 7th or 8th overall pick.

Also, only the first 2 years of first round rookie contracts are now guaranteed. Years 3 and 4 are team options.

Pick 15 is guaranteed 2 yrs 3.2 million dollars while Pick 30 is guaranteed 2 yrs 1.9 million dollars..

So if you go after the lottery players are basically guaranteed 2 yrs and on average 2.5 million dollars before taxes(about 40% after state and federal and agents fees) and after taxes it would be 1.75 million.

The kid from Louisville Geogui Dieng left because of age. Dieng was older and had to strike while he was 21 years old. Malachi's age is not the same. Diengwas also a first team all-conference player and showed his potential in college. Malachi wasn't even a top 15 player in the ACC last year. I understand if the kid wants to go pro because it is his dream but going in the first round after the lottery is not lifetime money. The big bucks for rookies goes to top 10 draft picks.

Jonny Flynn got 8.1 million for being the 6th pick. Wes Johnson got 10.5 million for being the 4th pick. Michael Carter Williams got 6 million for being the 11th pick.

I wish the kid good luck and will root for him but this decision screams I want out of college more than it does I want lifetime changing money.

I don't think some understand how the slotted NBA draft salaries work in terms of outcomes for the players.

 

[Dave85]

People have no bleeping right to tell someone else what to do.

People have no bleeping right to say Lydon should not have stayed in school because of some mythical injury possibility.

 

[Dave85]

I don't think some understand how the slotted NBA draft salaries work in terms of outcomes for the players.

A few million dollars is not enough to even start a small business. A million dollars nowadays really doesn't change people's life styles as much as the perception may be. First there's Alternative Minimum Tax. Then there's all the city expenses where the teams play. For someone on the bottom rung of the NBA it may not be that lavish of a lifestyle as most people are imagining. Maybe you end up with enough to buy a large house in the suburbs. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe there's a reality show for NBA players I need to watch.

 

[jordoo]

It seems people are 85% sure he will not be eligible.

I don't think anyone knows if he will be eligible. I'd still use a ship on him for one season even as a practice player since we have one and will be getting it back the following year when he enters the draft.