I have to say this game makes me nervous. Harvard is no push over, and obviously last year's games made for stressful watching. Add to the fact that this is SU's first game on the road, outdoors and in not great weather and there is a lot to worry about. Syracuse is a good team though, and I have confidence they'll pull this out, but it won't be easy.
Harvard has some very athletic players, especially on attack. Jack Spidell and Teddy Malone combined for 15 points in the two matchups against Syracuse last year. The good news is that Harvard no longer has Sam King to occupy the teams best defender. I think that means Riley Figuerias will take Malone and Billy Dwan will guard Spidell, but well see. Spidell (6'3) is bigger than Malone (6'), so that's why I think Fig will take on Malone. The third attacker is Nathan Cobery, who I am not super familiar with, but stands at 5'11. I am guessing that means Chuck K will bump down again to close.
Harvard is pretty top heavy when it comes to offensive production (Malone and Spidell have combined for almost half the points Harvard has produced this year). Small sample size, but the goal has to be to stop those two.
Obviously a big storyline has been face-offs in these last two matchups. I think Syracuse has won something like 83% of the draws, but obviously that hasn't led to run away success against the Crimson. Owen Umanski has been the main FOGO for Harvard this year, and in two games is a little above 50%. He's taken all but five draws for the Crimson. He was only 1-12 last year against the Orange (didn't play in the tournament), so hopefully John Mullen can again exploit that matchup.
Harvard has a very good goalie in Graham Stevens, so SU will have to be careful with their shooting. He finished below 50% against SU last year, but again, both games were one-goal finishes. So an uptick in his performance but just a few percentage points could go a long way.
And speaking of goalies, Jimmy McCool was not good against Harvard in either game last year, he finished with just 10 saves total (getting pulled in the first game). He will have to play better, especially if Harvard wins a few more draws and Stevens ups his game.
Other random thoughts - Harvard plays up tempo (to mitigate the face-off disparity), but that leads to turnovers, in two games they have two more turnovers (39) compared to Syracuse (37) who has played three. Also, I don't care how SU wins this game, but I would like to see someone other than Spallina step up on offense - he leads the team in scoring by 10 points. Syracuse has shown good depth, but someone else needs to produce on a big level.
Overall, on paper I think SU should win this game. They matchup well with Harvard's offense (two star attackmen vs two star defensemen) and hopefully Mullen can run riot at the face-off X. But last year's games put the scare in me, so I am definitely not taking anything for granted.
Last thing, the mental aspect of this game is something to watch for. First game as number one, start of a six game road trip. Would be really great for SU to start off with a win as to keep momentum going. How this team handles success will be telling.
