Help me figure this recruiting out

[General20]

In years gone by I've seen recruiting trend up and down, but no matter the year or the trend Syracuse has always been clinical in its recruiting. They have always recruited to a need, always recruited a particular type of player, and always left an open scholarship or two just in case.

This year marks a dramatic philosophical change. Instead of clinically recruiting to a particular need Syracuse seems to be trying to get . . . well . . . everybody. If this continues the NCAA may have to cancel next season and replace it with a series of Midnight Madness style inter-squad scrimmages because nobody but Syracuse is going to have enough players to field a team.

I have to wonder, why the philosophical change and how are all these new players are going to fit together?

As far as the philosophical change goes, the easy explanation is, we are short of bodies this year with only nine scholarship players on a team that can be elite (which usually means losing guys to the NBA) so its the right time to stock up. If you look at the guys SU has coming in. All five of them (six if you count Gbinije) seem like four, or at the very least, three year guys. Meaning we are going to be set/looking for elite one and done types in the next two years - the first of which we already have in McCullough.

Yet I cant help but wonder if there is more to this story.

Boeheim has always left at least one open scholarship. Some of the guys we are bringing in seem surplus to requirements. Does this change in recruiting style portend other changes? Is Boeheim leaving the cupboard full for Hopkins? I dont know if or when Boeheim is planning on retiring but we have surely entered the age where every year might plausibly be his last.

Onto where everybody fits. A point guard and a four year/rotation center are our two true needs in this class. We filled both of those needs with Ennis and Obokoh, who seem to check all the boxes for what we are looking for (even if I'm not as thrilled with Ennis as most are).

I understand the BJ Johnson signing because he is a guy who wont play for a year or two, but when he does play will be a tall forward who can shoot threes, and that type of player is rare and valuable.

After those three, things get confusing. When Patterson signed with SU I assumed it meant that Boeheim saw Gbinije as a small forward instead of a shooting guard. Signing Roberson seems to indicate otherwise. With Gbinije and Cooney at shooting guard, is SU looking to convert Patterson into a point guard? A six foot three, built like Paul Harris, seven foot wingspan, point guard. Are you kidding me? Its hard not to get excited about that.

The word is Patterson needs help with his handle but he's going to gain an extra year of maturity at Brewster which is a basketball factory that produces players who are ready to contribute in college from day one (see CJ Fair). A lot can change with an extra year training in an environment like that. Especially if the word from SU is he has to work on his handle.

Finally we have Roberson. A guy who is a borderline McDonald's All American. Is he going to be better as a freshman than Grant is as a sophomore? I think that's a little unlikely. Is he going to be better as a sophomore than McCullough will be as a freshman? Also unlikely. The odds are this potential McDonald's All American is looking at having to wait until he's a junior just to get in the rotation, much less get a chance to start. It almost unfathomable to me that we got him.

After all this rambling, I have four questions I'd like everybody's opinion on.

Does all this recruiting (bordering on over-recruiting) signal a change from Boeheim to Hopkins is upcoming?

Did SU bring Patterson in to play point guard?

What will Roberson's role be in his first two years considering he is going to have to battle with the likes of Christmas, Fair, Grant, and McCullough for playing time?

How many red shirts is a team allowed in one season? Is it possible that as many as three guys in this class receive a shirt?

 

[newmexicuse]

I think the the staff has decided upon a two tier recruiting strategy.

Tier 1 - Get as many uber talents as we are able to get to commit ala Kentucky, though, of course, we are not at their level in terms of either the quality or quantity of these elite players that we are able to attract.

Tier 2 - Have the roster stocked with solid four year types who can contribute as underclassmen & yet are talented enough to become stars or at least borderline stars as junior & seniors. Guys like AO, Andy, CJ, Scoop, Brandon, and James to name just a few. Guys who have the potential to be great collegians, but are not necessarily talented enough to play at the next level.

The concept being that in any given year the cupboards are stocked enough so that we will have sufficient talent to at least be a Top 20 team. Then, if we can get lucky & a couple of the "uber" types blow up ala Melo we can be a legitimate Top Ten title contending type of squad. Since nobody but Kentucky can start from scratch every season & bring in enough elite talent to contend, this two tier system makes sense & assures that there will be continuity within the program.

Overall, we have become as much a selector school as anybody outside of the bluegrass state, so why not use that to as much advantage as possible.

The current class is perfect in that respect. We have high level players in Ennis, Roberson, (and McCullough) who will not be four year types, but we balance by bringing in Johnson, Patterson, and Chino who should go the distance with us. We still have a shot at Dakari to complete Tier One. We also have Gbinje who is probably borderline between the two tiers.

 

[thebigeast44]

I think they see in Patterson perhaps the best defensive player we have ever had in JB's era at 2 guard. Of course, he'll have to come in and prove that but it's possible. He can also shoot the 3 and you can never have too many 3 point shooters.

 

[goodroc]

Wonder if we loaded up this yr ahead or our talk with the NCAA in 2013 regarding our drug testing policy

 

[jordoo]

1. I think part of it is that JB wants to leave SU and Hop in the best position he possibly can although I don't think that means he knows when he is done for sure. I think a bigger part of it for the 13 class is that the staff expects a very deep run and losing some underclassmen.
2. It means that they think Patterson can at least back up the PG spot IMO.
3. Hard to say but remember we've seen CJ in one game and he looked pretty dominant as well as looking like a guy who has made the transition in his mind from supporting player to star player. If he hits open 3's all season and averages 8+ boards he may be gone. If we lose CJ along with James then we need a forward and one who can be the 3/4 in our system without being an undersized 4 is ideal.
4. I have no idea how many you can redshirt but I doubt it would be more than 2 guys.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

I do not believe there is any redshirt restriction. All players have 5 years within which to play 4 .

 

[PhatOrange]

We only have 3 interior guys right now and next year would look like this:

Christmas - junior
Coleman - sophomore

Roberson (who will play PF in the mold of Hak) - freshman
Chino (Center) - freshman

The REST:

Fair - senior
Grant - soph
GBinje - soph
BJ Johnson - frosh

MCW - junior
Cooney - soph
Patterson - frosh
Ennis - frosh

The log jam imo is at small forward. Johnson almost has to redshirt but might be too good not to.

 

[baggerbob]

We only have 3 interior guys right now and next year would look like this:
Keita-senior
Christmas - junior
Coleman - sophomore

Roberson (who will play PF in the mold of Hak) - freshman
Chino (Center) - freshman

The REST:

Fair - senior
Grant - soph
GBinje - soph
BJ Johnson - frosh

MCW - junior
Cooney - soph
Patterson - frosh
Ennis - frosh I added Keita

The log jam imo is at small forward. Johnson almost has to redshirt but might be too good not to.

 

[Niastri]

My best guess is that any of MCW, Coleman, Christmas, or Fair could go pro early off this roster. Each of them has varying chances of being good enough and having enough potential to made that jump. If we have a truly terrific year, probably two or more will wind up jumping.

Triche and Southerland are definitely gone.

Worst case scenario (also best case scenario as we probably just won the title) we lose all six of them. In this worst case, we have a starting line up of Keita, Grant, Gbinje, Cooney and Ennis.

When you look at this as a real possibility, the size of this class is absolutely necessary, and even one more top recruited player coming would become necessary to have any kind of depth.

The wild card here is that additional top ranked recruits intending to sign in the spring come back into play if we do have the kind of year where everybody goes pro. A class where we reload with six or seven incoming recruits, several of them top30 kids becomes a reality.

However, as of right now, we are up against our limits and can't take another player unless somebody goes pro.

With so much talent on the current roster, it seems almost a certainty that somebody from our rotation makes a huge leap in performance and enters the draft. The change in recruiting philosophy, if there has been one, is in preparation for the current roster to have massive turnover.

 

[baggerbob]

Chad Ford has MCW at 19 and CJ at 40, if CJ is that high now he should go. Getting drafted with a chance to play in summer leagues, CJ would probably stick. Depending on this season if he does well, probably best to declare.

 

[normaliswear]

So... we win a DOMINANT National Championship... in the glory Fair, DC2, MCW, and Rak all become lottery picks. In the spring we pick up Wiggins, Lawrence, Dakari, and Jordan for the most amazing year ever! Ok... MAYBE thats a stretch.

 

[normaliswear]

Chad Ford has MCW at 19 and CJ at 40, if CJ is that high now he should go. Getting drafted with a chance to play in summer leagues, CJ would probably stick. Depending on this season if he does well, probably best to declare.

If CJ is 40 he should return. If you're not a 1st rounder you don't get a guarenteed contract. He can still improve his game further and up that status even higher in a Sr year in the ACC.

 

[Gabjon]

I think the staff is considering the classes of '13 and '14 one huge class, with maybe one more guy in each year. Also we know the draft class of '14 is stocked with talent and it will force borderline 1st round players to go pro after this year, which means MWC (although I don't consider him borderline) , Rak and CJ may all go.

Secondly I think JB's Olympic experience has changed his philosophy a bit and he is recruiting to put more long lean athletes on the court at one time. The James/CJ experiment at the 2 will continue not only this year but looking at recruiting for the foreseeable future. We will have some form of a point forward offense in the future. I love the idea because the zone will be long everywhere and we will have a serious height advantage on the offense end (think Fab 5 for those old enough).

There are no limit to the amount of RS you can have in one year.

 

[MCC]

We only have 3 interior guys right now and next year would look like this:

Christmas - junior
Coleman - sophomore

Roberson (who will play PF in the mold of Hak) - freshman
Chino (Center) - freshman

The REST:

Fair - senior
Grant - soph
GBinje - soph
BJ Johnson - frosh

MCW - junior
Cooney - soph
Patterson - frosh
Ennis - frosh

The log jam imo is at small forward. Johnson almost has to redshirt but might be too good not to.

I see the only potential logjams at the 2 and maybe the 5, but my projections assume Roberson is more of a 3:

5s - DC2, BMK, Chino, 1/2 Xmas
4s - 1/2Xmas, Grant, 1/2 Fair, 1/2 Roberson
3s - 1/2 Fair, 1/2 Roberson, BJJ
2s - Gbinije, Patterson, Cooney
1s - MCW (if he stays), Ennis

If we assume Chino redshirts that ameliorates issues at the 5. The G rotations are more difficult for me to figure out. If MCW leaves then we need either Patterson or Gbinije to spell Ennis at the point. My understanding is TC is a pure 2 and unlikely to fill that role.

Of course if McCullogh were to reclassify to 2013 we'd have issues at the F spots... but the latest chatter suggests this is unlikely to occur.

 

[tee1222]

So... we win a DOMINANT National Championship... in the glory Fair, DC2, MCW, and Rak all become lottery picks. In the spring we pick up Wiggins, Lawrence, Dakari, and Jordan for the most amazing year ever! Ok... MAYBE thats a stretch.

It's a big stretch, but it's the only way to think.
"greed, for lack of a better word, is good." GG, Wall Street

 

[reedny]

I don't think there's a new philosophy. All 5 guys fit the mold. They're all long. They can defend. They can run. And they can score. However, the positional puzzle is a little more challenging to sort out for 2013-14 because of the number of recruits filling uncertain roles and vacancies.

Take forward. At the 3, CJ has the spot locked up for his senior year (JS is gone). That leaves SF backup minutes available. Gbinje can rotate there, but the staff probably sees him as a SG. So the SF backup minutes will probably be filled by Grant. At 6'9, Roberson's the odds-on favorite to take over at PF for Rak. Since he has an outside game (classic JB recruit's versatility), he can play either wing. I see 6'10" Obokoh (if he's ready) as the most likely PF backup. If he's not ready, Grant can backup PF and can rebound at that position. BJ Johnson is 16 years old, dripping with upside. If he grows a couple of inches and puts on weight, he could play PF. If not, he'll be a SF after CJ graduates. My guess is ...he gets stockpiled (rs).

At guard, Ennis will start up top (assuming MCW jumps). His backup? Probably Patterson (if he's ready as you observe). That leaves SG for TC and Gbinje to share minutes. If MCW stays another year, Ennis will develop and Patterson will get the scraps at PG/SG that are available.

Center is a potential logjam. Keita's a senior. If DC2 jumps, Dakari (if he commits) will take over and Keita will backup. If not, there are 3 guys in the middle (unlikely but not impossible). If Roberson's not quite ready, Keita (who has very quick feet) can always move over to PF while DC2 and Dakari trade minutes at the 5. In foul trouble situations, Keita provides insurance.

PG - MCW (?), Ennis, Patterson
SG - Cooney, Gbinje
SF - CJ, Grant (BJ J to rs)
PF - Roberson, Obokoh (Keita)
C - Coleman (?), Dakari, Keita

 

[normaliswear]

I don't think there's a new philosophy. All 5 guys fit the mold. They're all long. They can defend. They can run. And they can score. However, the positional puzzle is a little more challenging to sort out for 2013-14 because of the number of recruits filling uncertain roles and vacancies.

Take forward. At the 3, CJ has the spot locked up for his senior year (JS is gone). That leaves SF backup minutes available. Gbinje can rotate there, but the staff probably sees him as a SG. So the SF backup minutes will probably be filled by Grant. At 6'9, Roberson's the odds-on favorite to take over at PF for Rak. Since he has an outside game (classic JB recruit's versatility), he can play either wing. I see 6'10" Obokoh (if he's ready) as the most likely PF backup. If he's not ready, Grant can backup PF and can rebound at that position. BJ Johnson is 16 years old, dripping with upside. If he grows a couple of inches and puts on weight, he could play PF. If not, he'll be a SF after CJ graduates. My guess is ...he gets stockpiled (rs).

At guard, Ennis will start up top (assuming MCW jumps). His backup? Probably Patterson (if he's ready as you observe). That leaves SG for TC and Gbinje to share minutes. If MCW stays another year, Ennis will develop and Patterson will get the scraps at PG/SG that are available.

Center is a potential logjam. Keita's a senior. If DC2 jumps, Dakari (if he commits) will take over and Keita will backup. If not, there are 3 guys in the middle (unlikely but not impossible). If Roberson's not quite ready, Keita (who has very quick feet) can always move over to PF while DC2 and Dakari trade minutes at the 5. In foul trouble situations, Keita provides insurance.

PG - MCW (?), Ennis, Patterson
SG - Cooney, Gbinje
SF - CJ, Grant (BJ J to rs)
PF - Roberson, Obokoh (Keita)
C - Coleman (?), Dakari, Keita

I think ya gotta swap Grant and Roberson positions. Grant is growing into a natural 4 and I think the whole reason we got Roberson is he wants to be more of a 3.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think ya gotta sway Grant and Roberson positions. Grant is growing into a natural 4 and I think the whole reason we got Roberson is he wants to be more of a 3.

I think that is correct.

Also, I suspect the staff is comfortable that Patterson can be enough of a point guard.

I also think the players we're getting are buying in to the idea that they're better off being a really good player on a really good team.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

 

[Gabjon]

I don't think there's a new philosophy. All 5 guys fit the mold. They're all long. They can defend. They can run. And they can score. However, the positional puzzle is a little more challenging to sort out for 2013-14 because of the number of recruits filling uncertain roles and vacancies.

Take forward. At the 3, CJ has the spot locked up for his senior year (JS is gone). That leaves SF backup minutes available. Gbinje can rotate there, but the staff probably sees him as a SG. So the SF backup minutes will probably be filled by Grant. At 6'9, Roberson's the odds-on favorite to take over at PF for Rak. Since he has an outside game (classic JB recruit's versatility), he can play either wing. I see 6'10" Obokoh (if he's ready) as the most likely PF backup. If he's not ready, Grant can backup PF and can rebound at that position. BJ Johnson is 16 years old, dripping with upside. If he grows a couple of inches and puts on weight, he could play PF. If not, he'll be a SF after CJ graduates. My guess is ...he gets stockpiled (rs).

At guard, Ennis will start up top (assuming MCW jumps). His backup? Probably Patterson (if he's ready as you observe). That leaves SG for TC and Gbinje to share minutes. If MCW stays another year, Ennis will develop and Patterson will get the scraps at PG/SG that are available.

Center is a potential logjam. Keita's a senior. If DC2 jumps, Dakari (if he commits) will take over and Keita will backup. If not, there are 3 guys in the middle (unlikely but not impossible). If Roberson's not quite ready, Keita (who has very quick feet) can always move over to PF while DC2 and Dakari trade minutes at the 5. In foul trouble situations, Keita provides insurance.

PG - MCW (?), Ennis, Patterson
SG - Cooney, Gbinje
SF - CJ, Grant (BJ J to rs)
PF - Roberson, Obokoh (Keita)
C - Coleman (?), Dakari, Keita

When you have one pure PG and no guys projected as combos only 2 guards and a ton of guys projected to be forwards (3 and 4) and you are bringing in top centers year after year it is a Philosophy change (not a new philosophy more of a modification) Look at the 08-09 team (Paul, Jonny, Devo, Andy, and Scoop redshirting) next years team would have only (Ennis Patterson and Cooney) that fit that mode. Three guys verse 5 and if you add Mike G then you need to add Mookie to the 09 team so it would be 6 vs 4. Its a change.

 

[normaliswear]

When you have one pure PG and no guys projected as combos only 2 guards and a ton of guys projected to be forwards (3 and 4) and you are bringing in top centers year after year it is a Philosophy change (not a new philosophy more of a modification) Look at the 08-09 team (Paul, Jonny, Devo, Andy, and Scoop redshirting) next years team would have only (Ennis Patterson and Cooney) that fit that mode. Three guys verse 5 and if you add Mike G then you need to add Mookie to the 09 team so it would be 6 vs 4. Its a change.

It doesn't necessarily indicate a philosophical change. Sometimes your roster is just a product of what good players agreed to come to SU. I'm sure if another 5 star pg had come out of the woodwork wanting to come to SU we'd have taken him. The 96 team pretty much only had Z running the point with similar 2 and 3 depth.

 

[ORRange]

So... we win a DOMINANT National Championship... in the glory Fair, DC2, MCW, and Rak all become lottery picks. In the spring we pick up Wiggins, Lawrence, Dakari, and Jordan for the most amazing year ever! Ok... MAYBE thats a stretch.

A stretch, you'd need a professional statistician and oddsmaker.
SU to win it all 20:1
Dominant 70:1
Fair, DC, MCW and Rak all lottery picks 1000:1
Sign Wiggins after that 2:1
Sign Lawrence after that 50:1
Sign Dakari after that 1:20
Sign Jordan after that 1:1
Then you'd have to do the calculations verse each other.

Hope your right but I wouldn't put a five dollar bill on it.

 

[Gabjon]

It doesn't necessarily indicate a philosophical change. Sometimes your roster is just a product of what good players agreed to come to SU. I'm sure if another 5 star pg had come out of the woodwork wanting to come to SU we'd have taken him. The 96 team pretty much only had Z running the point with similar 2 and 3 depth.

I think that team is the model going forward, but with recruiting going this well and getting so many 6-7 and up athletes the staff has to explain how they plan on playing people, this isn't happenstance this planned. There is a reason why there are no guards being discussed about for the spring signing.

 

[normaliswear]

A stretch, you'd need a professional statistician and oddsmaker.
SU to win it all 20:1
Dominant 70:1
Fair, DC, MCW and Rak all lottery picks 1000:1
Sign Wiggins after that 2:1
Sign Lawrence after that 50:1
Sign Dakari after that 1:20
Sign Jordan after that 1:1
Then you'd have to do the calculations verse each other.

Hope your right but I wouldn't put a five dollar bill on it.

Sorry... did I forget the requisite face?

 

[normaliswear]

I think that team is the model going forward, but with recruiting going this well and getting so many 6-7 and up athletes the staff has to explain how they plan on playing people, this isn't happenstance this planned. There is a reason why there are no guards being discussed about for the spring signing.

I think the reason no guards are being discussed for spring is that the top guys still available that are interested in us aren't guards. If a young Derrick Rose was listing cuse on his list we'd be in on it. I think we recruit long athletic guys at every position... and we take the best players we can find that fit that regardless of position.

 

[ORRange]

Sorry... did I forget the requisite face?

Guess I should've included the face also.