How Chaotic is the Bubble this year?

[jncuse]

I have never noted so much lack of consensus on the bubble. But I thought to myself it could simply be a case of forgetting the past... i.e. the bubble is weak every year now!.

So I decided to refer to the bracket matrix to see the distribution from the last 6 in, to the First 4 Out, to see if this was accurate. And this year by far is the most chaotic in the last 6 years. And I believe that is a positive for us.

I only went back 5 years to 2011. Here are the numbers (% equals how many people thought you were in before Selection Show):

Note - Teams in Yellow were teams that made (or missed) the tournament that were not in line with consensus.

• Look at the First 4 out, particular the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th line. In prior years, not many votes go their way. It's a huge difference. So much unknown this year. The closest we come to 2016 is 2011, when the 4th last team out had 12%. In the most "chaotic" year in the last 5 years, 3 teams that were out by consensus actually made it in. That's good new for us.
• Look at the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th last in. Compare their %'s to prior years. These teams are much more fragile in terms of their hold on a spot.
• This year there are four teams "in" between 53% and 71%. Only 3 teams in the last 5 years were in that range and in. 2 of the 3 missed the tourney.

Only 2 times in the last 5 years has a team been in the 30% range like we are this year. 1 of 2 made the tournament

Clearly there is more chaos this year. If you see a lot of people with us out over the next few hours, we can still keep optimistic.

 

[Tom W.]

Nice chart! So crazy, so much tension in the air, you could cut it with a knife!