How Good Should The Program Be Yearly?

NKR1978

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86-91 maybe. 10-14 I don't think so. Prove your srguement with players, record and rankings
Ranked #1 in three different seasons.
As high as #3 in the other two seasons.
Had 2012 where we were top 5 the entire season.
Final Four, Elite 8 and Sweet 16.

I don’t know how anyone could discount the 2010-14 seasons as a high water mark. I’d throw 09 in there as well.
 

moqui

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86-91 maybe. 10-14 I don't think so. Prove your srguement with players, record and rankings
from 2009 to 2014 syracuse was the 3rd winningest program in division 1
protected seed (top 4 or better) all 6 years
2x a #1 seed
iirc, #1 overall seed in 2010
0 first round losses
4 times to sweet 16, twice to elite 8, once to final four
 

anomander

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I think we hit our ceiling from 2010 - 2014

We seemed to be in the top 10 at least a few weeks each year, were a threat to win the title every year, and brought in top recruiting classes yearly. We have definitely underachieved the last 3-4 years. Our ncaa tournament runs have masked some of the difficulties we have had. Our recruiting has fallen off the map and we are no longer a legitimate threat to go past the 2nd weekend. Considering we have some of the best facilities in the country, play in the ACC, draws the largest home attendance, and have a rich history along with a legendary HC, it's pretty disappointing we haven't been better while JB is still here.
 

Eric15

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86-91 maybe. 10-14 I don't think so.
Our seeding in the first stretch was 2-2-3-2-2-2 and 1-3-1-3-4 in the second. So the former was actually stronger than the latter (2.16 average vs 2.4)
 

sdcuseguy

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The people on this site (including me) have to realize we are in a different world than the glory days. of Cuse. ESPN and Pearl made Cuse what we were for almost a decade, then we had Melo and since then we have been on borrowed time. The top recruits shun Syracuse and we are no longer a consistently Top 25 team, let alone a Top 10 team. Between the sanctions, the change to the ACC, the negative recruiting against Boeheim, the mantra that the zone only hurts NBA players and miscellaneous other things, we have been relegated to the also rans in the ACC. Do I hate it? Yes, I loathe it. But we just don't have the same panache as we use to and, in the ACC, if you aren't Duke and UNC, you are next tier and maybe we sit with the Louisville's and Virginia's if we are lucky. I bleed Orange but I am a realist and as disappointing as it is, that is the truth. The Final Fours were an anomaly the last 5 years...and I have a hunch that our zone defense will continue to befuddle tournament teams so we will make some runs..but the glory days...they are gone. I sure as hell hope we figure out a way for them to come back because besides Nova, we should be recruiting and getting commitments from the top players in the Northeast and right now that just isn't happening. I still have faith...I always have hope. GO ORANGE!
 

OttoMets

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One loss at home annually maximum.
Someone could look this up, but I think that's more rare than a Final Four season in the Dome era. We've had two undefeated years at home, 2003 and 2012, and I believe never fewer than 2 home losses in every other season.

My hope is for a perfect 13-0 start, top-4 league finish, league semis, and second NCAA weekend in most seasons.

EDIT: not as uncommon as I remembered, but 1 or 0 home loss seasons are still rare. Perfect in '03 and '12; 1 loss in '86, '89, '91, '94, '96, and '00. It's a good goal, those were all strong seasons.
 
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HtownOrange

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When you say top 5, do you mean in the nation? Year in and year out? If so you (and many others ) are delusional. And taking the coach out of the equation even more so. People constantly want to say that SU is "blue blood" of college basketball and it just ain't so. They are not a destination program for any coach other than alumni. Recruiting can be good with occasion great. Has SU ever gotten more than 1 top 20 recruit in a year. More than 2 McD AA in a year? Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Michigan or Michigan St, UNC dominate recruiting every year. Fans would LIKE to be top 5 all the time but ain't going to happen. Top 25 is more realistic. Top 5 in the ACC? Not every year. Just wait for reality to set in when JB retires. See what kind of coach SU brings in. That will help you see where they really stand.
I respect your opinion yet I believe you left out a major factor. JB has a system he has installed, he has a prototypical player in mind. Most kids will not fit his system. Add to that, most high level kids will not make the grade at SU, which enforces academics better than most colleges. JB was getting great recuits in the 80's and 90's and we never lacked talent.

As for being top 5 year in and year out, I agree, JB's system is designed to be different from most and make other adjust to his style of game. This is his advantage in the post season as most teams never see his system in a game. ACC teams will learn the system and be more capable of beating it than non-ACC teams because they see the system combined with Duke, UVA and others mimicking it. Being ranked in the top 5 periodically is tough enough, let alone year in and year out.
 

CaptainJ

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I think a good first step would be taking back the title belt as NY's College Basketball Team(tm).

Anything less than being in the top 25 more often than not disappoints me.
 

FrancoPizza

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Top 25 every year, 4 seed or better should be the expectation... occasionally being elite top 5 once or twice a decade.
 

dasher

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The people on this site (including me) have to realize we are in a different world than the glory days. of Cuse. ESPN and Pearl made Cuse what we were for almost a decade, then we had Melo and since then we have been on borrowed time. The top recruits shun Syracuse and we are no longer a consistently Top 25 team, let alone a Top 10 team. Between the sanctions, the change to the ACC, the negative recruiting against Boeheim, the mantra that the zone only hurts NBA players and miscellaneous other things, we have been relegated to the also rans in the ACC. Do I hate it? Yes, I loathe it. But we just don't have the same panache as we use to and, in the ACC, if you aren't Duke and UNC, you are next tier and maybe we sit with the Louisville's and Virginia's if we are lucky. I bleed Orange but I am a realist and as disappointing as it is, that is the truth. The Final Fours were an anomaly the last 5 years...and I have a hunch that our zone defense will continue to befuddle tournament teams so we will make some runs..but the glory days...they are gone. I sure as hell hope we figure out a way for them to come back because besides Nova, we should be recruiting and getting commitments from the top players in the Northeast and right now that just isn't happening. I still have faith...I always have hope. GO ORANGE!
Nonsense. We were at the top of our game from 09 to 14. That had nothing to do with Pearl, espn or Melo. that stopped for one reason. The sanctions. Just like they did the first time. Only we got lucky with wallace and Moten keeping our heads above water.
 

SBU72

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Ranked #1 in three different seasons.
As high as #3 in the other two seasons.
Had 2012 where we were top 5 the entire season.
Final Four, Elite 8 and Sweet 16.

I don’t know how anyone could discount the 2010-14 seasons as a high water mark. I’d throw 09 in there as well.
I bow to your (and others) per season data. Maybe I should review what games I have recorded from then.
 

SBU72

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I respect your opinion yet I believe you left out a major factor. JB has a system he has installed, he has a prototypical player in mind. Most kids will not fit his system. Add to that, most high level kids will not make the grade at SU, which enforces academics better than most colleges. JB was getting great recuits in the 80's and 90's and we never lacked talent.

As for being top 5 year in and year out, I agree, JB's system is designed to be different from most and make other adjust to his style of game. This is his advantage in the post season as most teams never see his system in a game. ACC teams will learn the system and be more capable of beating it than non-ACC teams because they see the system combined with Duke, UVA and others mimicking it. Being ranked in the top 5 periodically is tough enough, let alone year in and year out.
Your first paragraph really supports my contention that SU fans shouldn't expect top 5 consistently. They can't draw the recruits to do so and that puts a tough limitation for top established couches to take the job.
 

HtownOrange

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Your first paragraph really supports my contention that SU fans shouldn't expect top 5 consistently. They can't draw the recruits to do so and that puts a tough limitation for top established couches to take the job.
It's not a case of inability to draw, rather a case of the top recruits don't fit the system. JB has gotten top recruits in the past but now passes on those that don't fit his ideals.

As to a future coach, I don't agree that a future coach will have an issue installing his own system. If the new coach (whenever it happens) has a proven system, the then AD is likely to allow him to play his own style. Hopkins went to UW, not much in the cupboard but has them playing decent ball in year 2. Not sure why a top level coach could not do the same at SU. If you have proof that it will not be possible, then put it out here to show why SU will not land a top level coach and how the next coach will fail.

SU is a good job. Most coaches like the idea of stability. SU will give a new guy the chance to prove himself. There has been one coach for 40+ years now. How does that make SU a tier 2 coaching destination? I get why Hop moved on, he didn't want to wait another 5 years. He is ready to lead his own team. That does not equate to SU being a second rate job.

I would not expect to steal a HC from a peer level school (Coach K Bennett, Hopkins, Williams, Izzo, etc.) nor some coaches that love where they are, but there are plenty of good coaches willing to take a top tier job, with a crazy large fan base, and the biggest on campus arena.

Anyway, these are my opinions. You have not swayed me. I will, of course, consider any serious discussion on the matter as we know JB will not coach forever.
 

Cusefan0307

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So I've been thinking about the state of the program and my sense that we've underachieved over the past 5 years or so. But that belief begs the question of how highly we SHOULD be achieving. And I was curious as to everyone here's opinion? Obviously Boeheim has built the program from relative obscurity into being a powerhouse. But if you remove the coach from the conversation, and just look at the facilities, fan support, finances, school investment, conference, recruiting grounds, program reputation/brand, academics, weather, etc etc etc. How good should we be year after year? (And again, it goes without saying that Boeheim has influenced many of the above factors)

My personal belief is that we should be somewhere between top 5 (on the high end) and top 15 (on the lower end) most years, with outliers in either direction. Obviously you evaluate this with some combination of regular and post season success.

So my feeling is that over the past 5 years we've been a little outside the top 25 on average when you consider both of those things. The sanctions we were under explain some of it or sure, but either way it's been disappointing.

Thoughts?
Top 5 in the ACC with a minimum sweet 16 run.
 

Shark58

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top 15 most years, natty title threat a couple times each decade
 

omniorange

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Nonsense. We were at the top of our game from 09 to 14. That had nothing to do with Pearl, espn or Melo. that stopped for one reason. The sanctions. Just like they did the first time. Only we got lucky with wallace and Moten keeping our heads above water.
I think the four main factors that laid the groundwork for our success from 09 to 14 were 1) the 2003 natty; 2) Melo's initial success in the NBA; 3) the strength of the Big East being back to the league's strength from 1982-91 with the substractions of VT, Miami, and BC and the gains of Louisville, Marquette, and Cincy starting in 2005-06; and 4) JB being assistant coach to Coach K on the United States men's basketball teams starting in 2006. Those four factors all helped give the program a boost in recruiting in my mind. Add those factors to sdcuseguy's post and we have a better understanding of where we are now as a program vs where we once were from 86-91 and 09-14. Like others, I hope JB somehow gets his second natty before he retires but the future health of the program overall will depend on the coaching hire(s) after him. I use the plural because we may not make a homerun hire out of the gate.

Fascinating thread SU fans. One of the better ones I have seen on this board in a while.

Cheers,
Neil
 

OttoMets

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I think the four main factors that laid the groundwork for our success from 09 to 14 were 1) the 2003 natty; 2) Melo's initial success in the NBA; 3) the strength of the Big East being back to the league's strength from 1982-91 with the substractions of VT, Miami, and BC and the gains of Louisville, Marquette, and Cincy starting in 2005-06; and 4) JB being assistant coach to Coach K on the United States men's basketball teams starting in 2006. Those four factors all helped give the program a boost in recruiting in my mind. Add those factors to sdcuseguy's post and we have a better understanding of where we are now as a program vs where we once were from 86-91 and 09-14. Like others, I hope JB somehow gets his second natty before he retires but the future health of the program overall will depend on the coaching hire(s) after him. I use the plural because we may not make a homerun hire out of the gate.

Fascinating thread SU fans. One of the better ones I have seen on this board in a while.

Cheers,
Neil
The Big East looms large in that list of contributing factors.

Even with some crappy teams, SU was getting every opportunity to earn exposure from '06 through '09, and they came through - two or three upsets of top-10 Georgetown teams, a few good games against Louisville and Villanova, and of course the six overtime win. New York mattered from the broader national college basketball and recruiting perspective, and Boeheim and the kids more or less stepped up their game at the right time. This gave the program (wincing here, hate these dopey attempts to qualify intangibles) a level of swag that was attractive to recruits. Transition and freestyle-friendly basketball, tons of ESPN exposure, Jadakiss at the games, and a bunch of McD's kids and other high-level recruits wanting to play with their friends - there was a great positive feedback loop there for a few years.

After the move down South...not.
 

721Comstock

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Even those these past 5 seasons have "sucked" by Syracuse standards (in some peoples' minds - and they post routinely and repeatedly reminding us of same :rolleyes:), they've still been remarkably successful overall in the grand scheme of things.

Our ongoing winning streak is on pace to overtake UCLA as the LONGEST OF ALL TIME in a few seasons.

JB has only have three losing conference seasons EVER in his entire career.
(one of which came during these past 5 years)

The NCAA sanctions worked.

... and yet, in spite of that, we still had several awesome NCAA runs, as well as some really great regular season wins, even in the "worst" of those years.

Put it this way - UCONN and Georgetown would KILL to have our "crappiest" season over these past 5 years.

I would love for us to be Top 25 all year long, every year, like we used to be.
But I'm also realistic to realize that may not always happen.
So, for now, not being on the bubble in late Feb will be lovely.
 

IthacaMatt

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So I've been thinking about the state of the program and my sense that we've underachieved over the past 5 years or so. But that belief begs the question of how highly we SHOULD be achieving. And I was curious as to everyone here's opinion? Obviously Boeheim has built the program from relative obscurity into being a powerhouse. But if you remove the coach from the conversation, and just look at the facilities, fan support, finances, school investment, conference, recruiting grounds, program reputation/brand, academics, weather, etc etc etc. How good should we be year after year? (And again, it goes without saying that Boeheim has influenced many of the above factors)

My personal belief is that we should be somewhere between top 5 (on the high end) and top 15 (on the lower end) most years, with outliers in either direction. Obviously you evaluate this with some combination of regular and post season success.

So my feeling is that over the past 5 years we've been a little outside the top 25 on average when you consider both of those things. The sanctions we were under explain some of it or sure, but either way it's been disappointing.

Thoughts?


We averaged 24 regular season wins for the first 30 years of Boeheim's career. That's 24-7 (some years it was 24-6 before these preseason exempt tournaments added in the 4th game).

So let's start with that as a baseline - 24-7 regular season is the AVERAGE.

We had a stretch of about 5 years where we were averaging almost 30 wins a year, and since then, we've been averaging about 10 or 11 losses per year, so let's go with the earlier historical average.

So what is our reasonable expectation for the conference? I would expect a top 4 finish and usually getting to the semifinal round of the conference tournament. So let's add in a 2-1 conference tournament record.

Then there is the NCAA. Our expectation has always been to make it to the second weekend, and then let's see what happens. The Sweet 16 has often been the end of the road. If we go farther, it's gravy, and if we don't make it that far, then it's a disappointment. So add in another 2-1 record in the NCAA tournament.

That gives us a baseline reasonable expectation as a program of going:

28-9 Final season record. ACC tournament semifinals, NCAA Sweet 16.

That should be our average year. That means that once or twice a decade, we should have a Final Four quality team, and even in a moderately bad year, we should still make the tournament.

Being on the bubble 5 years in a row is underachieving. Once or twice in a decade is OK, but not every stinking year. I think we've only won 1 ACC tournament game in 5 tries so far.

We've had a couple good runs in the NCAA tournament this decade, but those have been overachieving teams who played a good (gimmick) defense that gives us an advantage on a short turnaround.
 

Alsacs

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We averaged 24 regular season wins for the first 30 years of Boeheim's career. That's 24-7 (some years it was 24-6 before these preseason exempt tournaments added in the 4th game).

So let's start with that as a baseline - 24-7 regular season is the AVERAGE.

We had a stretch of about 5 years where we were averaging almost 30 wins a year, and since then, we've been averaging about 10 or 11 losses per year, so let's go with the earlier historical average.

So what is our reasonable expectation for the conference? I would expect a top 4 finish and usually getting to the semifinal round of the conference tournament. So let's add in a 2-1 conference tournament record.

Then there is the NCAA. Our expectation has always been to make it to the second weekend, and then let's see what happens. The Sweet 16 has often been the end of the road. If we go farther, it's gravy, and if we don't make it that far, then it's a disappointment. So add in another 2-1 record in the NCAA tournament.

That gives us a baseline reasonable expectation as a program of going:

28-9 Final season record. ACC tournament semifinals, NCAA Sweet 16.

That should be our average year. That means that once or twice a decade, we should have a Final Four quality team, and even in a moderately bad year, we should still make the tournament.

Being on the bubble 5 years in a row is underachieving. Once or twice in a decade is OK, but not every stinking year. I think we've only won 1 ACC tournament game in 5 tries so far.

We've had a couple good runs in the NCAA tournament this decade, but those have been overachieving teams who played a good (gimmick) defense that gives us an advantage on a short turnaround.
I think you nailed it.
I also think the sanctions excuse has been overblown.
We lost those 3 scholarships each year but honestly we never used all 13 every year under JB the last decade. We always had 1-2 walkons on scholarship each year which helped the APR.
The biggest problem has been how difficult it has been to score points each game.
We have become low possession, defense first and jump shooting team on offense.
That means the games are close and come down to a few possessions.

We have also not had 10 quality D-1 players in the scholarships we have used.
Chino for 3 years gave us nothing.
Look at the bottom scholarship players these past 5 years they haven’t given us much and we have been short handed scholarship wise.
 

FRANKIEFAN

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I don't think being a fixture like UVA in the top 3 next to Duke and UNC every year is realistic. We lost 4 OOC games when we should have only lost 2. This isn't a regular season team as shown last year. All that matters is the tournament.

Were a top 5 ACC team (sure 4 or 5) that lost a couple too many games in November and December for our demanding/entitled fans. We are having a good year all things considered.
 

Cusefan0307

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I don't think being a fixture like UVA in the top 3 next to Duke and UNC every year is realistic. We lost 4 OOC games when we should have only lost 2. This isn't a regular season team as shown last year. All that matters is the tournament.

Were a top 5 ACC team (sure 4 or 5) that lost a couple too many games in November and December for our demanding/entitled fans. We are having a good year all things considered.
Why can’t we be as good as UVA? They were garbage for 20 years until Bennett went there.
 
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