I'm not sure you can chalk it up entirely to luck -- I mean, if you believe that the staff has an ability to evaluate talent, then some of it has to fall into the poor evaluation category. But obviously luck is involved to a degree (good and bad). My guess is this class -- moyer included -- won't be viewed as the class that resurrects this program, but I'd say the hope is that it at least yields a solid piece or two that the staff can pair with a couple of big-timers in '18 and put us back on the map. But, to your point, it's hard to know.
I wouldn't see all luck but I do think this is a huge part of the story. I have a general theory of life that people vastly under-estimate the importance of luck. To the point here - the same people evaluated that 2-Wrights class as did the Devendorf/Onauku/Rautins class a year later. Tyler Ennis and Kaleb Joseph were back to back.
Agree with the conclusion that the next two classes look good, and also probably hold a lot of the program's future in their hand.