if you told me

[upperdeck]

that in 3 weeks we could be in the sweet 16 games and every 2-3-4 seed was gone it would not shock me at all.

 

[OrangeTarheel]

I want what you’re having.

 

[Ragman2000]

We're winning the ACC tournament. Take it to the bank.

 

[hungrychuck]

It would shock me.

 

[Marty McFly]

We're winning the ACC tournament. Take it to the bank.

more bourbon, tonight?

 

[supp]

that in 3 weeks we could be in the sweet 16 games and every 2-3-4 seed was gone it would not shock me at all.

Hey Art, put that turkey down. It ain't gonna fly.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

that in 3 weeks we could be in the sweet 16 games and every 2-3-4 seed was gone it would not shock me at all.

Entirely plausible for the NIT.

Also, entirely plausible if you are using “we” as a term for the population of the world at a given point in time (3 weeks in the future).

 

[cliftonparksufan]

more bourbon, tonight?

You need to be very optimistic but if the chips fall properly you just never know.

 

[jncuse]

I think the tournament is going to be more chalky then people are expecting.

Maybe average or slightly below average "chalk" levels. But not totally unpredictable either.

 

[Ragman2000]

more bourbon, tonight?

Is it a day that ends in "d-a-y"?

 

[upperdeck]

i didnt mean we as in SU i meant we as in basketball fans.

 

[realorange]

I think the tournament is going to be more chalky then people are expecting.

Maybe average or slightly below average "chalk" levels. But not totally unpredictable either.

Last night, Kentucky, Maryland and Iowa say Help!

 

[jncuse]

that in 3 weeks we could be in the sweet 16 games and every 2-3-4 seed was gone it would not shock me at all.

Even if this is not about Syracuse I still question if you have been drinking.

Let’s assume that in total, 4 teams that are 13,14 or 15 seeds win game 1 which is abnormally high.

That leaves 8 teams that are 2,3 or 4 seeds.

Let’s assume each has a 50% chance of winning the second round. There is about a 0.4% chance o all those teams losing.

But in reality those teams are favourites so let’s say on average they have a 60% chance of winning those games which is still historically low. That means the chance they would all be out is 0.06%.

The odds of us winning the national title are well better then what you are predicting. But sure it would not be surprising.

 

[Trueblue25]

Only the Ragman saw our ACC Tournament banner coming

 

[jncuse]

Last night, Kentucky, Maryland and Iowa say Help!

Because those teams are always close to undefeated

Last night, Kentucky, Maryland and Iowa say Help!

And Texas tech lost to the worst team in the big12 around this time last year.

2,3 and 4 seeds are not prefect. They lose games ... they win more.

They also have huge targets on their back when they play bubble teams this time of year and may not have the same fire as their opposition.

I’m not going tho back and spend the time to find it.

I will just say the original claim in the op has basically no chance of happening.

But an open bet of 25-1 odds is open to him. After all you can’t really go below 4% probability to claim something is not surprising.

 

[PhatOrange]

The Big10 has been touted all year (8 ranked teams) and they flashed the W/L records of the conference and most of the ranked Big10 teams are hovering around 9 & 10 losses each. Michigan is ranked at 18-11. There are so many flawed teams ... anybody can beat anybody.

It would not shock me that Syracuse winning their next two and finishing 11-9 / 19-14 could get in. We're 1 or 2 losses off pace from a whole lot of teams who are most likely going to lose another couple of games.

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse getting in the tournament at 19-14 is less probable than what is claimed in the op.

We are not getting an at large at 19-14.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

The Big10 has been touted all year (8 ranked teams) and they flashed the W/L records of the conference and most of the ranked Big10 teams are hovering around 9 & 10 losses each. Michigan is ranked at 18-11. There are so many flawed teams ... anybody can beat anybody.

It would not shock me that Syracuse winning their next two and finishing 11-9 / 19-14 could get in. We're 1 or 2 losses off pace from a whole lot of teams who are most likely going to lose another couple of games.

I still believe many people think if Cuse gets to the ACC final and beat two of Duke/Virginia/Louisville/FSU we are in. It's not over.

 

[jncuse]

I still believe many people think if Cuse gets to the ACC final and beat two of Duke/Virginia/Louisville/FSU we are in. It's not over.

But that is a lot different than us only beating Miami and say wake forest which this guy is claiming.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

But that is a lot different than us only beating Miami and say wake forest which this guy is claiming.

I'm not arguing semantics but he said could get in, not will get in. But that's his discussion. We know unless we make a run in the ACCT that we aren't getting in.

 

[jncuse]

I'm not arguing semantics but he said could get in, not will get in. But that's his discussion. We know unless we make a run in the ACCT that we aren't getting in.

Not semantics. He explicitly stated the 19-14 record.

 

[Col. Bleep]

The Big10 has been touted all year (8 ranked teams) and they flashed the W/L records of the conference and most of the ranked Big10 teams are hovering around 9 & 10 losses each. Michigan is ranked at 18-11. There are so many flawed teams ... anybody can beat anybody.

It would not shock me that Syracuse winning their next two and finishing 11-9 / 19-14 could get in. We're 1 or 2 losses off pace from a whole lot of teams who are most likely going to lose another couple of games.

The issue is that the Orange have - at best - one quality win.
Virginia.
Beating Miami and then getting to the ACC final could be enough to get them on the bubble.

The only sure way to get in is to pull another G-Mac '06 and win the tournament.
But that also would require not having another team absolutely shred the zone.
And, of course, they'd have to make shots (or so the coach says).

 

[PhatOrange]

But that is a lot different than us only beating Miami and say wake forest which this guy is claiming.

claiming ? I actually said "it would not shock me."

I explicitly stated getting in with a 19-14 record WOULD NOT SHOCK ME. Nowhere did I make a claim we would get in. Reading comprehension.

 

[PhatOrange]

The issue is that the Orange have - at best - one quality win.
Virginia.

I would imagine a good majority of the teams with 11-14 losses don't have many quality wins and likely have as many bad losses.

Hunch says we see more than the usually number of upset auto bids from crappy teams and that will burst a lot of bubbles this season.

 

[jncuse]

claiming ? I actually said "it would not shock me."

I explicitly stated getting in with a 19-14 record WOULD NOT SHOCK ME. Nowhere did I make a claim we would get in. Reading comprehension.

I will fix it for you.

The claim that we have a 1% chance or a 10% chance to get in at 19-14 is as equally absurd as stating that we will get in at 19-14.

I'm not sure how you are defining "would not shock me", but I assume something has to have at least have a probability of 1% chance of happening to not shock you.

And yes I am usually one to state the board over sells what we need to accomplish, but this is not that.