Does anyone ever go back and check to see how these rankings pan out?
I looked at it a while back for 2006 and 2007, using making All-American as my metric. I found that the top 20 had a 50-60% chance of making AA, 21-40 had around a 30% chance,
and the lower sets had a low percentage of making the AA list.
I have only done the 2017, 2018 and 2019 All-Americans, looking back at the top 100 for 2015, but the pattern remains about the same::
1. Ryan Conrad, M, Loyola Blakefield (Md.), Virginia - 2019 AA(1), 2017 AA (3)
2. Ryder Garnsey, A, Brewster Academy (N.H.), Notre Dame - 2018 AA (HM), 2017 (HM)
3. Dan Bucaro, A, Ward Melville (N.Y.), Georgetown - 2019 AA(2), 2018 AA (HM)
4. Drew Supinski, M, Haverford (Pa.), Johns Hopkins
5. Cade van Raaphorst, D, Desert Vista (Ariz.); Duke - 2019 AA(1), 2018 AA(1), 2017 AA(3)
6. Patrick Spencer, A, Boys’ Latin (Md.), Loyola - 2019 AA(1), 2018 AA(1), 2017 AA(1)
7. Noah Lejman, D, Haverford School (Pa.),Penn
8. A.J. Barretto, G, St. Paul’s (Md.), Army - 2019 AA(2)
9. James Sullivan, FO, Garden City (N.Y.), Harvard
10. Alex Woodall, FO, St. Mary’s (Md.), High Point - 2019 AA(2)
11. Timmy Monahan, A, Gonzaga (D.C.), Maryland
12. Tommy Wright, LSM/D, Garden City (N.Y.), Penn State - 2019 AA(HM)
13. Tyler Dunn, A/M, Manhasset (N.Y.), Penn - 2019 AA (HM)
14. Brad Smith, M, Mountain Lakes (N.J.), Duke - 2019 AA (2), 2018 AA(1), 2017 AA(3)
15. Hunter Sells, G, Landon (Md.), Johns Hopkins
16. Chris Donovan, A, Hun School (N.J.), Georgetown
17. Alex Roesner, A, Loyola Blakefield (Md.), Penn
18. Tim Kelly, A, Calvert Hall (Md.), North Carolina - 2019 AA (HM)
19. Joey Froccaro, M, Port Washington (N.Y.), Villanova
20. Jack Rowlett, LSM/D, Robinson (Va.), North Carolina - 2019 AA (3), 2018 AA (HM)
21. Jake McCulloch, M, Ward Melville (N.Y.), Cornell
22. Eddie Bouhall, D, Lynbrook (N.Y.), Lehigh
23. Hugh Crance, D, Corona Del Mar (Calif.), Notre Dame - 2018 AA (HM)
24. Willie Klan, G, Penfield (N.Y.), Ohio State
25. Austin Henningsen, FO, Northport (N.Y.), Maryland
26. Sam Romano, M, Episcopal Dallas (Texas), Syracuse
27. Brendan Mackie, M, Bergen Catholic (N.J.), Yale
28. Nate Marano, A, Foothill (Calif.), Denver
29. Zach Ambrosino, LSM/D, Taft (Conn.), Virginia
30. Nick Mellen, D, West Genesee (N.Y.), Syracuse - 2019 AA (2), 2018 AA (3)
31. Grant Ament, A, Haverford School (Pa.), Penn State - 2019 AA (1), 2017 AA (HM)
32. Kyle Marr, A, Hill Academy (Ont.), Johns Hopkins - 2018 AA (HM), 2017 AA (HM)
33. Jacob Stover, G, McDonogh (Md.), Loyola - 2019 AA (1)
34. Brandon Barker, M, Pittsford (N.Y.), Ohio State
35. Charles Kelly, FO, Malvern Prep (Pa.), North Carolina
36. Jake Fox, M, Hill Academy (Ont.), Johns Hopkins
37. Dylan Johnson, D, Cherry Creek (Colo.), Denver
38. Henry Grass, A, Bronxville (N.Y.), Johns Hopkins
39. Simon Mathias, M, Ridgefield (Conn.), Penn = 2019 AA (HM)
40. Joe Sessa, A, Minisink Valley (N.Y.), Yale
41. Tyson Bomberry, LSM/D, Avon Old Farms (Conn.), Syracuse - 2019 (HM)
42. Jake Hervada, FO, Haverford (Pa.), Delaware
43. Connor Alexander, D, Jupiter (Fla.), Duke
44. Patrick Foley, D, St. John’s Prep (Mass.), Johns Hopkins - 2019 AA (2), 2018 AA (3)
45. Timmy Phillips, M, Episcopal (Va.), Notre Dame
46. Phil Poquie, M, Haverford School (Pa.), Virginia
47. Alex McGovern, M, St. Paul’s (Md.), North Carolina
49. Decker Curran, M, Greenwich (Conn.), Michigan
49. John Daniggelis, M, Smithtown East (N.Y.), Yale - 2019 AA (HM)
50. Nick Yevoli, M, Massapequa (N.Y.), Yale
51. Marc-Antoine Pion, D, IMG Academy (Fla.), Harvard
52. Jack Olson, FO, Georgetown Prep (Md.), Johns Hopkins
53. Louis Dubick, A, Winston Churchill (Md.), Maryland
54. Ryan Bray, A, Shoreham-Wading River (N.Y.), Cornell
55. Jack Corbett, G, Hotchkiss (Conn.), Harvard
56. Quinton Eissler, A, Coronado (Nev.), High Point
57. Nathan Solomon, A, Centennial (Ga.), Syracuse - 2019 AA (HM)
58. Carter Flaig, A, St. Paul’s (Md.), Princeton
59. Aidan O’Brien, M, Niskayuna (N.Y.), North Carolina
60. Ryan Lamb, M, Paul VI (Va.), Virginia
61. Ryan O’Connor, M, Paul VI (Va.), North Carolina
62. Erik Dluhy, D, Somerville (N.J.), Albany
63. Andrew Helmer, D, Summit (N.J.), Syracuse
64. Alex Concannon, A, Syosset (N.Y.), Johns Hopkins
65. Colin Reder, G, Episcopal Academy (Pa.), North Carolina
66. Reece Belcher, FO, T.C. Williams (Va.), Syracuse
67. Drew Petkevich, M, Bullis (Md.), Penn State
68. Drew Schantz, M, Malvern Prep (Pa.), Notre Dame
69. Andy Matthews, A, Gilman (Md.), North Carolina
70. Colton Rupp, A, Landon (Md.), Cornell
71. Tate Boyce, G, McCallie School (Tenn.), Providence
72. Joseph Licciardi, M, St Anthony’s (N.Y.), Penn
73. Riley O’Sullivan, M, Don Bosco Prep (N.J.), Syracuse
74. Jack Tigh, M, Chaminade (N.Y.), Yale - 2019 AA (HM), 2018 AA (3)
75. Colton Jackson, M, Rock Canyon (Colo.), Denver - 2019 AA (HM), 2018 AA (HM), 2017 AA (HM)
76. Larsen Bidstrup, A, Governor’s (Mass.), Harvard
77. Mikey Herring, A, Avon Old Farms (Conn.), Virginia
78. Richie Easterly, A, Westhill (N.Y.), Loyola
79. Theo Dol, D, Avon Old Farms (Conn.), Virginia
80. Foster Cuomo, A, IMG Academy (Fla.), Quinnipiac
81. Kevin Hill, M, Webster Thomas (N.Y.), Penn State
82. Thomas O’Connell, M, Chaminade (N.Y.), Maryland
83. Hoyt Crance, G, Corona Del Mar (Calif.), Yale
84. Bradley Voigt, A, Salisbury (Conn.), Syracuse
85. Robert Clark, A, McDonogh (Md.), Georgetown
86. Michael Borda, D, Gonzaga (D.C.), Michigan
87. Thomas Reilly, D, Ward Melville (N.Y.), Cornell
88. Austin French, A, San Ramon Valley (Calif.), Denver
89. John Prendergast, M, Niskayuna (N.Y.), Duke - 2019 AA (HM)
90. Christian Klipstein, G, Rutgers Prep (N.J.), Bucknell
91. Connor McCroskey, A, Bishop’s (Calif.), Harvard
92. John Duffy, M, Lincoln (Ore.), Loyola
93. Robby Black, M, McDonogh (Md.), Penn State
94. Charlie Tarry, D, Bronxville (N.Y.), Princeton
95. Tim Troutner, G, St. Mary’s (Md.), High Point - 2019 AA (2)
96. Jack Fowler, D, Chaminade (N.Y.), Duke
97. Devin Shewell, A, Boys’ Latin (Md.), Syracuse
98. Turner Uppgren, G, Choate (Conn.), Duke
99. P.J. Brown, M, Cazenovia (N.Y.), Loyola
100. Acie Newton, G, Loyola Blakefield (Md.), Brown
One thing that is different from 2006 and 2007 is that they have added an ssdm category to the AA team,. Pendergrist and Dannigelis were ssdms