Is Ennis the bet frosh in college basketball?

[jordoo]

You should probably tell that to Daryl Morey and John Hollinger then. If you model you know you never have a r^2 of 1, all models operator at a level below 100% accuracy.

Wait they aren't accurate? Again I'm shocked. Shooting percentage is accurate as are efficiency ratings WAR is made up and thus not accurate.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Care insurance come on dude of course I know how car insurance works this is sports prognosticating and its apples to oranges.

Again you are simply backing up my original argument that its pointless to go so far in bball stats and silly because after a certain point you could have learned more watching games.

How is it apples to oranges? Does your insurance company make your rate by watching you drive?

 

[Cusefannotindc]

For your next trick are you going to design a javelin that takes advantage of Lamar's limp wristed throwing style?

Better yet, ask any basketball coach in America if they actually think any of these formulas matter. See how many think it's remotely useful.

You mean like Brad Stevens? Or maybe I should ask the GM of the Houston Rockets?

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Wait they aren't accurate? Again I'm shocked. Shooting percentage is accurate as are efficiency ratings WAR is made up and thus not accurate.

Just pure ignorance in this post.

 

[Orangezoo]

You should probably tell that to Daryl Morey and John Hollinger then. If you model you know you never have a r^2 of 1, all models operator at a level below 100% accuracy.

Of course you rarely have an r val of 1. That means squat as a counter to my point. These guys do that type of analysis because there is a market of readers and sports betters that will give them the hits they need to make it seem worthwhile to continue.

Spreads have been successfully bet on for years without these type of models. The reason why is that you can assess match ups by watching those teams play. Its also much different in pro vs college. Lets also not forget that once an injury occurs you simply cant just re calibrate a model or if a player has a slump or is psychologically down...

 

[Knicks411]

For your next trick are you going to design a javelin that takes advantage of Lamar's limp wristed throwing style?

Better yet, ask any basketball coach in America if they actually think any of these formulas matter. See how many think it's remotely useful.

Depends on which ones you are talking about, but lots and lots of coaches are very interested in the advanced stats. WP in particular, I don't know for sure.

 

[jekelish]

You mean like Brad Stevens? Or maybe I should ask the GM of the Houston Rockets?

Last I checked, the GM is not the coach. Remember when I said coach? Good talk.

 

[Orangezoo]

Just pure ignorance in this post.

You are showing excessive ignorance by clamoring how useful these models are. If you understood how modeling works and how statistical analysis comes from nothing but a blank piece of paper and a bunch of assumptions you realize these are all created not incumbent statistics. Predictors always lack qualitative factors in sports.

 

[Knicks411]

Last I checked, the GM is not the coach. Remember when I said coach? Good talk.

Brad Stevens is a coach

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Last I checked, the GM is not the coach. Remember when I said coach? Good talk.

Remember when I said Brad Stevens?

 

[jordoo]

You mean like Brad Stevens? Or maybe I should ask the GM of the Houston Rockets?

Brad Stevens was in the revenge of the nerds?

Just pure ignorance in this post.

You said they aren't accurate how is my post ignorant unless you have miss informed me.

How is it apples to oranges? Does your insurance company make your rate by watching you drive?

No they are trying to make money and calculating the risk at the same time. It is inexact and based off of a data base of statistics plus my own driving stats. Its taking an educated guess but the goal is to collect more money than you pay out not actually accurately predicting what will happen to each specific driver in the future. Its an odds game.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

You are showing excessive ignorance by clamoring how useful these models are. If you understood how modeling works and how statistical analysis comes from nothing but a blank piece of paper and a bunch of assumptions you realize these are all created not incumbent statistics. Predictors always lack qualitative factors in sports.

I understand quite well how it works. Players cannot be measured by eye alone, this models help fit players into a larger universe to understand. As this all got started from, statistically, Tyler Ennis is the more effective of the top freshman because he is productive on the floor and spends more time on the floor than the others.

 

[jekelish]

Brad Stevens is a coach

I'm well aware of that. But I asked for examples of coaches and 50% of the people given were not coaches.

I just think it's absurd to try to predict this sort of thing. As I've said numerous times, there are just WAY too many factors in a basketball game that cannot possibly be tracked or quantified. It's invalid, because it's far from accurate because of these things.

 

[jordoo]

I understand quite well how it works. Players cannot be measured by eye alone, this models help fit players into a larger universe to understand. As this all got started from, statistically, Tyler Ennis is the more effective of the top freshman because he is productive on the floor and spends more time on the floor than the others.

Which can be easily determined without ever wasting time on WAR an unquantifiable made up stat

 

[weedsportwarriors]

Well according to Goodman Ennis is now #1 on his list. Insider account required.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/jeff-goodman/post?id=2915

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Brad Stevens was in the revenge of the nerds?


You said they aren't accurate how is my post ignorant unless you have miss informed me.



No they are trying to make money and calculating the risk at the same time. It is inexact and based off of a data base of statistics plus my own driving stats. Its taking an educated guess but the goal is to collect more money than you pay out not actually accurately predicting what will happen to each specific driver in the future. Its an odds game.

I said they aren't 100% accurate, because it is impossible to control for everything.

It is inexact and based off of a data base of statistics... Its an odds game

 

[Orangezoo]

I understand quite well how it works. Players cannot be measured by eye alone, this models help fit players into a larger universe to understand.

A - that comment makes zero sense.

B - no offense im not convinced. You sound more like someone who reads hollinger and other statistical salesmen and tries to pontificate upon that vs actual understanding.

 

[Knicks411]

I'm well aware of that. But I asked for examples of coaches and 50% of the people given were not coaches.

I just think it's absurd to try to predict this sort of thing. As I've said numerous times, there are just WAY too many factors in a basketball game that cannot possibly be tracked or quantified. It's invalid, because it's far from accurate because of these things.

I'll be honest, I have kind of lost track of exactly what is being debated here.
There is no perfect stat. (As i've said, I don't care much for wp, for instance.) But they can be useful in evaluating players, just like scouting can be. And, especially at the NBA (I read a lot more about this than in college, so that is why I am more sure of it) most teams utilize a ton of advanced stats when making moves, etc.

 

[jordoo]

I said they aren't 100% accurate, because it is impossible to control for everything.

Right and its a made up inaccurate stat as I have been saying and you refuse to admit

 

[Cusefannotindc]

I'm well aware of that. But I asked for examples of coaches and 50% of the people given were not coaches.

I just think it's absurd to try to predict this sort of thing. As I've said numerous times, there are just WAY too many factors in a basketball game that cannot possibly be tracked or quantified. It's invalid, because it's far from accurate because of these things.

You think it is inaccurate because you are biased against it. No matter what I say you are going to stick to thinking that it can not be modeled. It will never be perfect, but even small improvements from measuring can lead to big results.

 

[jekelish]

I'll be honest, I have kind of lost track of exactly what is being debated here.
There is no perfect stat. (As i've said, I don't care much for wp, for instance.) But they can be useful in evaluating players, just like scouting can be. And, especially at the NBA (I read a lot more about this than in college, so that is why I am more sure of it) most teams utilize a ton of advanced stats when making moves, etc.

I agree they can be useful. I like player efficiency ratings but anyone who tries to say they are a good predictor of wins and losses is absurd, because there are so many factors and so many other players to be considered. And, again, most of the things that factor into how effective a player is cannot be measured by any stat. Playing good positional defense doesn't appear on a box score, for instance. Making a smart pass that doesn't lead to a basket but leads to a pass that leads to a basket never shows up. And so forth.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

Right and its a made up inaccurate stat as I have been saying and you refuse to admit

Less than 100% accuracy does not invalidate something.

 

[Orangezoo]

I'll be honest, I have kind of lost track of exactly what is being debated here.
There is no perfect stat. (As i've said, I don't care much for wp, for instance.) But they can be useful in evaluating players, just like scouting can be. And, especially at the NBA (I read a lot more about this than in college, so that is why I am more sure of it) most teams utilize a ton of advanced stats when making moves, etc.

Player analysis they are absolutely an effective tool. What this has evolved into is using these models as predictors. As a way to break down a player its analytical vs predictive and I agree its useful. Just as it is to help make a point about ennis vs other players. It cant predict he will end the year better but shows how he stands now.

 

[jordoo]

You think it is inaccurate because you are biased against it. No matter what I say you are going to stick to thinking that it can not be modeled. It will never be perfect, but even small improvements from measuring can lead to big results.

Isn't not perfect another way of you admitting that it is not so accurate?

 

[jordoo]

Less than 100% accuracy does not invalidate something.

Is it really something when it is not derived in a way that makes it a real stat?