We are all speculating, myself included.
That said, one thing that has not been mentioned, and is relevant whether you believe what was said in the press conference or you think otherwise...
Basketball is a business and colleges are corporations. You can apply this to the coaching situation and Lydon's situation.
If you are the owner of a big name company and things become unsettled your first responsibility is to calm the storm and reclaim your brand name. None of us know what the truth at SU is. If you think the comments by Boeheim and SU were not scripted, you likely don't understand business. Maybe JB will stay for 5 more years, maybe it was a damage control statement, we don't know. But SU is just a corporation trying to maintain its image. They believe saying JB staying for 5 more years helps their brand, and keeps recruits from bailing. I love JB, and think he's earned this chance...I'm just not particularly optimistic that he can get it done because of how difficult it is to recruit when you're in limbo, and other schools will negatively recruit against us.
As for Lydon, he's taking the money. He's never going to be a superstar NBA player, but he has the opportunity to secure his financial future. He's taking care of his brand, and I don't blame him.