I was waiting until we thought we had our roster finalized to post some general thoughts on the off-season/next season but, I suppose in this new day and age of college hoops, there is no such thing as a finalized roster. So I suppose this is as good a time as any.
I'm less concerned about positions and specific attributes and more concerned about our offensive and defensive system
This point is obviously ignoring the whole talent piece of the equation (which I'll get to later), but I've heard a ton of discussion on here about true PGs and true 5s and a whole lot of discussion about how we need shooting or ball-handling or rebounding or interior scoring or rim protection. I don't disagree with any of these as obviously a great pure point guard is awesome as is a really good two-way center, etc. But UConn didn't win back-to-back titles because they had the perfect player at each position. They had excellent talent and certainly plenty of all the attributes listed. But they have a really nice system offensively with constant ball and player movement and a really sound defensive system. They pulled away from Purdue with a really effective early help strategy to speed up Edey.
So, point isn't to undersell the value off all the discussion or a good point guard or whatever, it's just that we need to know what we want to be and bring talent in that fits that system. And to that end ...
It feels like we're going to see a very different offense and perhaps a different defensive system this season.
We started Red's first season with what appeared to be an offensive system built around drive-and-kick and tempo and a pressure man style of defense with limited help. The return of Judah and Copeland, the addition of Starling/Westry/Cuffe, parting ways with Joe, Jesse moving on. The moves all pointed in that direction (with the giant exception of the late McLeod addition). After 10 or 12 games (and with no Westry), it became obvious that we needed some adjustments as Judah was doing too much dribbling and McLeod was having major problems on the perimeter defensively. We eventually saw a bit more movement offensively, Brown and Q helped the flow and things looked much better from Feb. on. Defensively we made some adjustments but it was a struggle throughout, IMO.
So heading into next year, it feels like the roster movement and the arrival of Englestad/departure of GMac points in a very different direction. McLeod returns and we add Lampkin, Freeman and Davis -- which should make us tougher inside, but Brown was a really good defender on the perimeter. Will that group -- a true frosh, a guy made for bully ball inside, a 7'4" shot-blocker and whatever Davis ends up being -- be able to switch and hang with perimeter players? Will Bell be able to play average defense in a 30-ish mpg type role? Judah spent a frustrating amount of time being disinterested defensively, or gambling at least 60' away from the basket, but when he cared to, he was a really solid on-ball defender. Can Carlos at 160 lbs hold up there? Can Starling improve on a disappointing defensive performance?
I don't know any of those answers but that doesn't look like a roster of intense man defenders creating havoc and getting out in transition ... at least not to me. (note: I'm not advocating a return to the zone, just wondering if we can really get away with pressure man.)
Offensively, as much vitriol as Judah absorbed and whatever Q was getting up to off the court, those two created a lot of offense. Brown also emerged as a really nice facilitator on the short roll. They're all gone. So this feels much more like offense by committee with more of an inside-out feel (Lampkin and Freeman, maybe some high-low action with both). Have to feel like Bell's and Starling's looks from deep are going to have to come off ball movement and player movement versus Judah/Q creating or hitting Brown off the short roll and his finding shooters.
That's all well and good and could lead to a more pleasing product to watch ... but that depends on what our actual sets look like. We ran more sets and had more cutting/movement as the season went on (even Taylor found a bit of success operating on the baseline). But can Red and co. coach these guys up to such a degree that you lose your three best offensive players, are potentially a bit light on creators, yet you wind up with a more efficient offense? I'm a bit skeptical but it will be interesting to watch.
Can Bell and Starling develop into well-rounded basketball players?
There's always the chance that a healthy Westry comes in and blows us away with his athleticism and versatility -- I'm certainly hoping he does. But that's tough to bank on given his absence from the court for the past two years (more or less). Outside of that, to this point, Red appears to be doubling down on the Bell/Starling combo at the SF and SG spots, respectively.
These guys have done some nice things here for sure -- Bell actually was our second leading scorer if you look at per/40 numbers (and exclude Nico Ruffin). In the per 40, Starling drops to fourth (behind Q and Bell along with Judah) but he was a still at a respectable 15.5 pp40. There were several games we won largely because of Bell -- Colgate, Louisville, at NC State, to name a few -- and Starling was excellent in the win over UNC and was a pretty consistent double-figures guy all year.
BUT both of these guys had holes. Bell's are easy to see -- struggled to rebound and with physicality in general; struggled on defense (when Clemson needed a look late in the shot clock they constantly sought out Bell to attack 1-on-1); and spent much of the year parked on the wing or occasionally floating to a corner. Starling shot terribly early, was great in the middle of the season and struggled at the end. People hated Judah's FT seeking, but Starling was the exact opposite -- never draws contact or gets to the line. Defensively I thought he actually played OK positionally but he just never makes a play on the ball or in the passing lanes. Starling's 1.2 steals/blocks per 40 was the worst number for anyone on the team that played real minutes -- the only other guys under 2.0 steals/blocks per 40 were Bell (1.8) and Taylor (1.6), and even those two were far more impactful. Starling also was limited as a creator -- got to his mid-range pretty well but only got to the rim occasionally on straight-line drives and averaged 1.9 assists (not great) and just 1.2 assists/game from the Georgetown game (mid-December) on.
We lost our three most well-rounded players -- these two need to show significant improvement in other areas of their game. Starling needs to be able to get to the rim and get to the line, he HAS to be more effective defensively, and he likely will need to handle the ball a bit as well. I wouldn't turn down a few more assists either (he actually averaged 3.6 assists/game in our first 9 games). Bell needs to be better moving without the ball, shooting off screens, continue to improve his mid-range and, to whatever extent he can, continue to improve defensively and on the glass. His whole thing, to me, is movement. If he's moving on both ends of the floor he's going to wind up with more rebounds, more loose balls, more blocks and more open shots. He's spent far too much time watching the game the first two years.
Moore and Cuffe will be interesting to watch
JJ and Carlos will get big minutes. Westry, if healthy, could be the third guard. But Red appears to want to play more guys than we have in the past and Cuffe and Moore (probably only one of the two consistently) will get their opportunities.
Cuffe simply getting back on the floor last year is great. Kid has had horrible injury luck. The thing I like best about him is that he very much believes he belongs. He's ready to shoot when he gets the ball, he can be tough defensively, he's pretty strong. Would love to see an improved handle and what he looks like after a healthy off-season.
Moore is someone who has people excited with his shooting/scoring and generally good athleticism (at least from what I can tell from clips I've watched). But shooting doesn't always translate to the college game, at least not immediately. It would be great if he made an impact, but I guess we'll see.
How to evaluate Red?
It's interesting how much the game has changed even in the last couple seasons. I find myself unsure of how to grade Red for a couple of reasons: 1) Where do we stand in terms of NIL? If we are thin there compared to a lot of these other programs, that is a tough spot. And 2) Does high school recruiting matter? It's exciting to hear the Kiyan Anthony developments and maybe a couple highly rated kids come with him ... but how do you fill out the rest of the roster in that scenario?
Everyone wants to get back to the good old days of making the tourney most years and having a shot to be playing on the second weekend ... but is the infrastructure there to support that kind of program? Not sure. Is Red partly responsible for helping cultivate NIL and fundraising? I would guess so, but, again, not really sure how that all works.
It seems fair to say that a rough year this year will certainly make Red's seat a bit warm, but in the new Wild West of college basketball, it may be tough to determine how much of that is Red's fault.
Anyway, I think that's it. If you actually made it this far, I'm impressed. You must have as little going on in your life as I do.
) get every single minute at center this season.
