KenPom Rankings

[RedtheGOB]

Really important the ACC keeps winning tonight.

 

[Sherman20]

We sank like a stone in KenPom after the three losses in Vegas, from the upper 40s to the low 70s, even though we only had the one blowout loss (to a top 5 KenPom team). We moved up after the Tennessee win, but only to 63. I thought it would be higher. Bart Torvik’s efficiency metric has us back up to 55. (I didn’t even look at the NET, which is a joke that they need to completely revamp.) We’re gonna need to blow out teams for the rest of the non-conference if we want to move up in the metrics, and three of these mid majors are ranked in the 100s—much better than the first four cupcakes we played. Hope the team continues to grow and develop on offense and that we get Donnie back.

 

[DomeHolmes]

It takes that into account…but it also takes into account the teams we played before that (who were terrible) We also gave up sixty points in a half…which doesn’t help either

There’s also still some carryover from 2024 possibly

I thought defensive of efficiency was simply points per possession. Is there more to the metric like giving up offensive rebounds?

 

[DomeHolmes]

Psst, look at a calendar.

I think you misread my post. It’s December and it looks like last year‘s information is still in there.

 

[SUFaninNJ]

I think you misread my post. It’s December and it looks like last year‘s information is still in there.

Ahh, gotcha. Not the first post I've misread on here and most likely not the last!

 

[Surfan06001]

I thought defensive of efficiency was simply points per possession. Is there more to the metric like giving up offensive rebounds?

From KenPom-

AdjO – Adjusted offensive efficiency – An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.

AdjD – Adjusted defensive efficiency – An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense.

If it’s an estimate against the average D1 team I’d think the results would have to be weighted based on the strength of your opponent.

 

[justgold315]

I'd like to run the table in December and January based on the matchups and locations.

Is that bad?

Then February - yikes.

I was thinking the same but didn't want to jinx it. I think it's possible, and now I unreasonable expect a 2 month win streak

 

[DomeHolmes]

From KenPom-



If it’s an estimate against the average D1 team I’d think the results would have to be weighted based on the strength of your opponent.

So I believe there are two different things. Offensive efficiency, and adjusted offensive efficiency, which, as you say, take it into account who you’ve played.

 

[jncuse]

So I believe there are two different things. Offensive efficiency, and adjusted offensive efficiency, which, as you say, take it into account who you’ve played.

All KenPom efficiency numbers are adjusted to the opponent.

Its not raw data. I'm sure raw offensive efficiency numbers can be found elsewhere

 

[jncuse]

I think you misread my post. It’s December and it looks like last year‘s information is still in there.

NET is standalone on this season data right now. No preseason / or last year data impacts it (or should).

KP still has some preseason impacts, but its getting minimal at this point.

 

[jncuse]

We sank like a stone in KenPom after the three losses in Vegas, from the upper 40s to the low 70s, even though we only had the one blowout loss (to a top 5 KenPom team). We moved up after the Tennessee win, but only to 63. I thought it would be higher. Bart Torvik’s efficiency metric has us back up to 55. (I didn’t even look at the NET, which is a joke that they need to completely revamp.) We’re gonna need to blow out teams for the rest of the non-conference if we want to move up in the metrics, and three of these mid majors are ranked in the 100s—much better than the first four cupcakes we played. Hope the team continues to grow and develop on offense and that we get Donnie back.

Have to remember that KP is simply an efficiency metric... and it correlates highly with margin, and ultimately what your margin was versus expectation. Its not impacted directly by who actually wins or loses the game -- of course if you win lots of games you will do well in KP.

Here is the math. We were expected to lose to Tennessee by 6. We won by 2, so we were only 8 points above expectation. 8 points over 100 possession game, would be about 11 points... 11/8 games = 1.3... take away 1.4 from our current adjusted EM of 13.28 and we are at 11.98.. which is number 73 in KP. So the move up was about as expected.

Its part of the reason KP openly admits that his system should not be used to select tournament teams. He feels his system is the best way to measure who is better if they play a game today, but its not the best way to select teams for the NCAA tournament teams. That should be W and L's, which is largely what the NCAA does.

I will say I was pleasantly surprised by NET going from 90 to 70... it probably means the NET does have some elements in it that values W without margin (efficiency).

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Have to remember that KP is simply an efficiency metric... and it correlates highly with margin, and ultimately what your margin was versus expectation. Its not impacted directly by who actually wins or loses the game -- of course if you win lots of games you will do well in KP.

Here is the math. We were expected to lose to Tennessee by 6. We won by 2, so we were only 8 points above expectation. 8 points over 100 possession game, would be about 11 points... 11/8 games = 1.3... take away 1.4 from our current adjusted EM of 13.28 and we are at 11.98.. which is number 73 in KP. So the move up was about as expected.

Its part of the reason KP openly admits that his system should not be used to select tournament teams. He feels his system is the best way to measure who is better if they play a game today, but its not the best way to select teams for the NCAA tournament teams. That should be W and L's, which is largely what the NCAA does.

I will say I was pleasantly surprised by NET going from 90 to 70... it probably means the NET does have some elements in it that values W without margin (efficiency).

 

[IthacaMatt]

We should be favored in probably 9 of the next 10 games.
We haven't had this easy a schedule (now that the gauntlet is behind us ...) in a number of years.

We could actually go into the stretch beginning Jan 21 sporting a 14-4 record, if our only loss in the next 10 games is to Clemson, before going against Va Tech, Miami, @NC State, ND, @ UNC, @UVa.

 

[Cuse1055]

We should be favored in probably 9 of the next 10 games.
We haven't had this easy a schedule (now that the gauntlet is behind us ...) in a number of years.

We could actually go into the stretch beginning Jan 21 sporting a 14-4 record, if our only loss in the next 10 games is to Clemson, before going against Va Tech, Miami, @NC State, ND, @ UNC, @UVa.

I think we beat Clemson at the Dome too, especially if Donnie is back.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Clemson in the dome has to be a win. They aren’t as good as Tennessee and I am sick of them beating us. We are 2-7 against them in the last 5 years and they’ve beaten us 4 in a row. Ridiculous.

 

[RedtheGOB]

I think we beat Clemson at the Dome too, especially if Donnie is back.

Clemson looks solid but they were one of those teams the last few years playing those super senior grad students. They still have some experience on the team now but it's not the same big giant dudes we're used to at Clemson that played their for 6 years. Clemson's starting 5 last year was an average age of 22.5 years old.

Also thought it was interesting but Clemson has 5 guards on the roster not a single one listed over 190 pounds all 6'3-6'4 this year.

 

[Orangezoo]

We shouldn’t fear anyone this year especially when Donnie gets back.

 

[atlanticuse]

Iowa St crushing Purdue helped us

 

[blust2i3d4]

Our KenPom dropped from 63th to 67th because we did not beat up Saint Joseph. My guess we have to beat them by 15 points to keep still at 63th. Beating them 20 points we could move up 2 or 3 places.

 

[RedtheGOB]

Our KenPom dropped from 63th to 67th because we did not beat up Saint Joseph. My guess we have to beat them by 15 points to keep still at 63th. Beating them 20 points we could move up 2 or 3 places.

Prob has more to do with Iowa State tonight, Our worst blowout loss. They only won by 4 at home. It's a long season.

 

[Eric15]

I miss the RPI days. I have no freaking clue how it was calculated, but I just liked my morning routine of checking realtimerpi.com after a win to see how much we rose.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Our KenPom dropped from 63th to 67th because we did not beat up Saint Joseph. My guess we have to beat them by 15 points to keep still at 63th. Beating them 20 points we could move up 2 or 3 places.

SU needs to do more than move up 2-3 places.

People would be better off thinking of this like there are currently 20 teams tied in the 5th and 6th tiers. They wouldn’t get annoyed at math as much.

 

[orange79]

I miss the RPI days. I have no freaking clue how it was calculated, but I just liked my morning routine of checking realtimerpi.com after a win to see how much we rose.

Since you (kinda) asked:

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

WP = Winning percentage
OWP = Opponent's Winning percentage
OOWP = Opponent's Opponent's Winning percentage

Home win counts as 0.6 of a win, road win counts at 1.4 of a win, neutral court win counts as 1.0.

Similarly, home losses count as 1.4 of a loss, a road loss counts as 0.6 of a loss, etc.

And there you have it.

Currently, SU has a NET of 81, and an RPI of 96. Both have been trending down lately (by down I mean lower numbers, which is good).

 

[SUFaninNJ]

SU needs to do more than move up 2-3 places.

People would be better off thinking of this like there are currently 20 teams tied in the 5th and 6th tiers. They wouldn’t get annoyed at math as much.

Or, don't check them for a couple of months. It's like worrying about your ranking in football in September. Relax, most of the season lies ahead. There's plenty of time to move up or down.

 

[Blanko97]

Or, don't check them for a couple of months. It's like worrying about your ranking in football in September. Relax, most of the season lies ahead. There's plenty of time to move up or down.

its a lot easier to stay high in the rankings when you get there early.