orange79
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Lax Pick ‘em: Week 4
- Thread starter Laxfanshutt
- Start date
i never saw the line until tuesday. flacuse and schutt posted sun/mon early a.m. everybody has the same option to take army?
and again, 79 is taking them.
orange79
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Looks as if DK made a mistake or had a huge swing. Let's go with Army -1.5.
I'll rethink my pick.
JeremyCuse
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Ya no issue if the line moved but he didn't post it until yesterday and it appears that it may have been Army -1.5 but was posted in error as Army +1.5. I'll speak with schutt and we will sort it out.
* Edit - I see that FLCuse did post it on Sunday, it may moved from there to Army. That maybe causing the confusion.
FloridaCuse
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Laxfanshutt posted the Army line at 6:58am Monday after I told him what it was Sunday night. Lines change all the time, often after Laxfanshutt posts them for purposes of this thread. Obviously the Army line changed. I was a little surprised when I saw it as +1.5 Sunday night. But we have to have a common agreement as to what lines we're going to use for purposes of this game.
JeremyCuse
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Right, like I said no issue with the lines moving at some point we have to stick with a number and go with it. Concern was in this case the line was incorrect but that does not appear to be the case.
Let's stick with Army +1.5 that's what was reported.
Moving forward for midweek games the lines will be posted the day before or morning of so we can keep the lines as close to where they land as possible.
schutt posted @ 7 a.m. 2 days ago - monday? i'll go with whatever.
ftr, any big change in lines is exacerbated around the ones/pick 'em. as there is no such thing as a 1/2 point line on either side. so a 3 pt swing is a 1-2 point swing in reality vs others. as there are no ties, a team can only win or lose by a goal.
and with even-ish teams, on top of that it only takes more $$ going on one team "to win".
DoctahLexus
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I will take Army +1.5 Yale as one of my picks
3-8-1 on the year (no I do not want to talk about it)
3-8-1 on the year (no I do not want to talk about it)
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FloridaCuse
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JeremyCuse
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Army Line will stay the same as previously announced Army +1.5 for those interested in taking it.
Tomorrow we will review for posing the Sat lines if all or most are available. As well as the Fri game.
Tomorrow we will review for posing the Sat lines if all or most are available. As well as the Fri game.
DoctahLexus
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No idea why the line was like that. Yale just lost to Villanova and Army just had two convincing wins over half way decent teams. Need to go back and erase my post about Yale being a dark horse this year.
DoctahLexus
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Man, in 2021 I would have killed for Shay to be Desko's replacement. Seemed like the top coach in the nation at that point. Yes the Ivy league covid situation did not help, along with other Ivy disadvantages, but at this point it feels like we dodged a bullet. This will be his 4th year in a row with a horrendous defense, and he seems to have absolutely zero answers. "Blue collar" mentality ruined by insanely expensive Joe Tsai facilities??
Laxfanshutt
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As per Jeremy’s request..I will post Fridays game Thursday night (only one game) if we could get the NY lines for Saturdays games Friday morning (Florida and Orange79 if you could) then I will put the list out as per the numbers they post
Sorry for the confusion with the army game.. I use the line from FloridaCuse post.. I apologize, I should’ve waited till Tuesday and asked for an update
Sorry for the confusion with the army game.. I use the line from FloridaCuse post.. I apologize, I should’ve waited till Tuesday and asked for an update
Powellfan
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Don't you dare apologize! We all owe you big fat thank you for organizing and keeping track of all this. You da man Laxfanshutt!!!
JeremyCuse
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Yes as Powell noted zero reason to apologize your doing yeoman's work and we all appreciate it.
Regarding Sat's games, I think it's fine to post it Thursday afternoon/night with the Fri lines, that gives people almost two full days to make their picks and I doubt the lines are going to move much
Laxfanshutt
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Ok.. will do .. so if we could get the NY lines posted on Thursday .. I will post the rest after 5 on Thursday night
FloridaCuse
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When on Thursday do you want the NY lines? I count there are 16 games Sat/Sun.
Laxfanshutt
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Sometimes afternoon would be great.. I’ll post sometime around 5 .. thanks
don't sweat it and thanks for all! this is really a nothingburger. original lines vs those moving later are built on 2 similar premises but different things.
original - oddsmakers building in strength of teams, real and perceived by bettors, and the teams' betting patterns. (i.e. the cowboys getting more love than they should). all in the goal of nailing the line that gets even money on both sides so the house wins with the vig on losses.
line moves - the book doesn't want this (as it could make them take risk and lose both sides), but does it as they missed the original line and are ONLY moving it to even out $$ on both sides for them. so it is only a function of risk/profit for oddsmakers, team strength is eliminated. idk how much $$ is laid on lacrosse, but it may only take a jabroni or 2 to shift this. if anything, later lines are "worse" lines given the above.
the book fills the bets at the lines for when they are taken, so many different fills. bottom line, using later lines is not necessary or even optimal for our purposes, it's really about just nailing down a convenient time to "make a book" for a group that is consistent for all and less time consuming for you.
JeremyCuse
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Ya they look really good so far. They lost a pretty good amount on offense but so far it hasn't shown itself. Caveat to this is that the three teams they have played so far don't look great. Umass is rebuilding and decent but Rutgers has zero offense and Yale's Defense is non-existent. Still that Army D looks impressive and their schedule only really has one above average OOC opponent left in UNC.
FloridaCuse
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Laxfanshutt: Lines for games involving NY schools for Sat/Sun. Per Draftkings at 3:20pm Thursday
11am
Denver +4.5 at Cornell -4.5
VMI -14 at Iona +14
Noon
Mercer +14 at Army -14
Marist -1.5 at Binghamton +1.5
Bucknell -2 at Hobart +2
Sacred Heart +2.5 at Stony Brook -2.5
UMass Lowell -3.5 at Wagner +3.5
1pm
Robert Morris -2.5 at Canisius +2.5
Drexel +3 at UAlbany -3
Harvard +6.5 at Syracuse -6.5
Hofstra -1.5 at St. Johns +1.5
Siena -3 at LIU +3
Manhattan +4 at Fairfield -4
Colgate -1.5 at Villanova +1.5 [Note: this game was moved from Colgate to Villanova due to weather although Draftkings still lists it at Colgate. Confirmed on the Colgate LAX website]
5pm
Lafayette -7.5 at LeMoyne +7.5
[Note also -- per IL the Utah at Vermont game has been moved from Saturday to Friday 1pm]
Good luck all!
11am
Denver +4.5 at Cornell -4.5
VMI -14 at Iona +14
Noon
Mercer +14 at Army -14
Marist -1.5 at Binghamton +1.5
Bucknell -2 at Hobart +2
Sacred Heart +2.5 at Stony Brook -2.5
UMass Lowell -3.5 at Wagner +3.5
1pm
Robert Morris -2.5 at Canisius +2.5
Drexel +3 at UAlbany -3
Harvard +6.5 at Syracuse -6.5
Hofstra -1.5 at St. Johns +1.5
Siena -3 at LIU +3
Manhattan +4 at Fairfield -4
Colgate -1.5 at Villanova +1.5 [Note: this game was moved from Colgate to Villanova due to weather although Draftkings still lists it at Colgate. Confirmed on the Colgate LAX website]
5pm
Lafayette -7.5 at LeMoyne +7.5
[Note also -- per IL the Utah at Vermont game has been moved from Saturday to Friday 1pm]
Good luck all!
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Powellfan
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