LAX TV/Streaming Action for March 8-13

[wgdsr]

Can't help but notice that the ACC super teams of last year - Duke, UNC and ND - aren't so super so far this year, with the exception of UVA of course. Seems to prove that the big-name transfers had huge impact in 2021. Really a shame given that our Cuse 2020 team got no transfers and paid for it big time.

i said pre-season i thought unc may share the title. that of course might still be off and probably will be, but they're #5 rpi right now. everyone else but uva is outside looking in as of now.

rpi's will bump for the others (and them) once conference season kicks in, but believe it or not for now unc's in the catbird seat even given what people see with their eyes. and they still have gray, a somewhat improved supporting attack cast, and a d that can improve with experience. their fogos might up their chances, too. tosu game may be an outlier.

 

[wgdsr]

ONeill has not developed at all as a passer yet. With all the attention he draws we should be seeing way higher assist numbers at this point. McAdory however has shown some nice feeding ability. Wonder if they ever try him at attack. Hard to experiment when you keep bringing in a new starting QB attack from the portal.

danowski probably has weekly meetings with k on turnover.

va tech smoking the one and dones last nite was fun to watch.

 

[Zack80]

rpi's will bump for the others (and them) once conference season kicks in, but believe it or not for now unc's in the catbird seat even given what people see with their eyes. and they still have gray, a somewhat improved supporting attack cast, and a d that can improve with experience. their fogos might up their chances, too. tosu game may be an outlier.

The bump might not be as large with the ACC already having 9 OOC losses. If UVa were to run the ACC (go 6-0) it could get tough for the rest of the ACC.

 

[wgdsr]

The bump might not be as large with the ACC already having 9 OOC losses. If UVa were to run the ACC (go 6-0) it could get tough for the rest of the ACC.

it won't be. ooc season isn't over. looking like it's 1 ivy 2 acc 3 b1g right now.

patriot looks bad, but boston is #2 rpi. will be interesting to see if they can hold up after going thru pat league.

big east and pat look like 1 bid unless gtown or boston lose for now.

guess now is 2-3 at large for acc, 2-3 ivy, 1 b1g and 1 or 2 left for the 3 leagues depending on gtown and boston.

 

[fieldystick]

it won't be. ooc season isn't over. looking like it's 1 ivy 2 acc 3 b1g right now.

patriot looks bad, but boston is #2 rpi. will be interesting to see if they can hold up after going thru pat league.

big east and pat look like 1 bid unless gtown or boston lose for now.

guess now is 2-3 at large for acc, 2-3 ivy, 1 b1g and 1 or 2 left for the 3 leagues depending on gtown and boston.

I'm working on the rough draft of my bracketology for tomorrow morning post.

Right now, my guess for at-larges come end of season would be:
3-4 ACC
2-3 Ivy League + AQ
2-3 Big Ten + AQ

Georgetown will likely get an at-large if they need it.

I would be very surprised if BU has a case for an at-large bid come selection Sunday. In my opinion, they're going to have to take down both Yale and Princeton to have a chance. It's a tall ask.

I'd say the top 3 leagues lock out the at-larges unless Georgetown trips in the BET.

 

[wgdsr]

I'm working on the rough draft of my bracketology for tomorrow morning post.

Right now, my guess for at-larges come end of season would be:
3-4 ACC
2-3 Ivy League + AQ
2-3 Big Ten + AQ

Georgetown will likely get an at-large if they need it.

I would be very surprised if BU has a case for an at-large bid come selection Sunday. In my opinion, they're going to have to take down both Yale and Princeton to have a chance. It's a tall ask.

I'd say the top 3 leagues lock out the at-larges unless Georgetown trips in the BET.

boston probably needs to finish with no more than 3 losses. 2 and 4 are probably the tails.

doesn't matter hoo the w's and l's are against.

 

[fieldystick]

patriot looks bad, but boston is #2 rpi. will be interesting to see if they can hold up after going thru pat league.

Follow up. Where are you seeing BU at RPI #2? I've got them at RPI #5 right now.

 

[wgdsr]

Follow up. Where are you seeing BU at RPI #2? I've got them at RPI #5 right now.

RPI – D1 Men – Lacrosse Reference

i'd assume any differential is today's games and/or incuding future opponents' records etc. or not.

 

[fieldystick]

RPI – D1 Men – Lacrosse Reference

i'd assume any differential is today's games and/or incuding future opponents' records etc. or not.

Lacrosse Rating Percentage Index (RPI)

Lacrosse Rating Percentage Index

college.laxpower2.com

Thanks, I'll look into it and see if I can hunt down the discrepancy.

 

[Zack80]

It is fair to note that the RPI's haven't really come together really well yet. When you look at Maryland's #7 RPI at .6739, one reason that is low is that Maryland's opponent's winning pct. is low at .5083 and one of the reasons that is low is that Notre Dame (1-3) and Loyola (2-4) have such low winning pcts, which probably don't show the strengths of those teams. I thank that if you considered those teams as really being .500 or better, it would lift the Terps RPI by maybe about .020. There are probably similar sorts of things with other teams.

Looking at Notre Dame (1-3). One of ND's problems is that they play Syracuse twice in their ACC schedule, and with Syracuse losing to JHU yesterday, it looks unlikely that Syracuse will be a quality win - particularly if ND beats them twice. ND's two remaining OOC games are Michigan and Marquette. While Michigan's record is good, their weak schedule makes it unlikely they will be a quality win. So, it tends to look like ND will have to go at least 2-2 against UNC , UVa, and Duke (twice) to make it - along with winning the other 4 games. The one thing ND does have going for it is that they should have a very high SOS, which could perhaps give them a slight chance if they went 1-3 against those 4 ACC teams above and won the other 4 games - thus being .500 at 6-6.

 

[fieldystick]

It is fair to note that the RPI's haven't really come together really well yet.

Even after looking at it, I still do not understand how BU's RPI is at #5. They have beaten basically no one. Their best with is probably otherwise undefeated Buckenell... who has also beaten no one.

 

[Zack80]

Even after looking at it, I still do not understand how BU's RPI is at #5. They have beaten basically no one. Their best with is probably otherwise undefeated Buckenell... who has also beaten no one.

BU has beaten:
Merrimack 3-2 -> 3-1 .750
Bryant 2-4 -> 2-3 .400
UMass 3-3 -> 3-2 .600
Colgate 1-4 -> 1-3 .250
Bucknell 5-1 -> 5-0 1.000
which sums to 3.000 divided by 5 give .600 opponent's winning pct. as listed on Lacrosse Reference.

BU does have the lowest opponent's opponent's winning pct amongst teams in the top 10, but it is not that bad, and only counts 25%.

Basically, you just come to the bottom line is that the RPI isn't a very good statistic, and is especially inconsistent when the number of games is low.