Mike Waters basketball chat on syracuse.com

[rrlbees]

This is what we call a first world problem.

It's what I call stacked (with CJ) at forward. I think we have 3 future NBA players at forward and CJ will likely be the lowest drafted.


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[HoustonCuse]

There is no way to ask this question without it seeming like a shot at someone, but I assure you it is not. There have been any number of snubs, omissions, etc so I am asking the question for real: why was Roberson not named to the McD AA team?

 

[AlaskaSU]

So realistically how many minutes a game do you see for BJ? I think he will be great for us down the road but I would be shocked if he got more PT then say MCW did his Freshman year. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that were just loaded with guys who have been in the program longer and we know JB's track record the past 3 decades with playing freshman


-

His minutes will depend on TC's performance. TC and MG get first shot, but both have a lot to prove.

 

[AlaskaSU]

If Patterson plays big minutes this year we are in big trouble.

I'm with Mike Waters on this one. I am higher on Cooney than most. I will eat crow if he doesn't have a good year. He's capable of playing well against good comepetition. He showed that in the Big East Tournament last year.

Cooney is a puzzle. He is plenty athletic, more so than people expect, and appears to be lights out in scrimmage. Is it some sort of basketball psychosis like Josh Pace not being able to take a J in a real game? Maybe we need a team shrink to go with our clandestine growth coach and big man coach?

 

[Cusefan10923]

It's very early to make prognostications ... including drawing conclusions from a few pre-season practices (although this was a fun report to read).

My reasoning is simple: We need an outside shooter. Many think TC is that guy. Unfortunately, after a year in practice, another year in a backup role, and a few pre-season games ... he's making one out of every 4 shots he takes from 3. That's not going to get it done. Our bigs have enough trouble scoring inside, but without reliable outside offense to loose up defenses, we're headed for trouble. That's why the TC problem seems acute as we look ahead.

Now BJ is a freshman. Everyone agrees he's thin and still getting used to D-1 ball at this level. But, at least so far, he sems to be able to do one thing better than anyone else in the guard rotation .. hit the 3.

The rest is fodder for discussion.

This Cooney bashing is beyond old. The fact that we have people saying his production is not going to cut it is not fair at all. Look at the sample size we have to base Cooney off of. I feel like last season can be overlooked based on the very little amount he played, it was his first season playing college basketball, and he had sat out the previous year. So let's base it off of 4 exhibition games in August where he goes 7-21 from beyond the arc...really!? Is that enough to sit here and talk about how he wont be able to get it done and everyone short of Nolan Hart should be playing the 2 over him? WRONG!!!

And don't think I'm coming at you just because I'm replying to your post specifically. I am simply addressing the notion that Cooney is not the answer at the 2 and we are in trouble there with it being a weak link. There is absolutely no reason to believe that he wont be a productive player and shoot well this season. Not last year, not 4 games in Canada this summer, nothing.

Let's talk about it in March when all the analysts are giving their "keys to beating the orange" and one of them is to not leave this dude open cause he will bury it.

 

[billsin01]

My initial post was this:

"Offense is rarely a problem for Jim Boeheim-coached teams." - don't agree with that statement. I'd say it was a problem maybe 3 of the last 6 seasons.

Your main reply was that if the team wins then the offense is not a problem. In one sense, if you want to overlook that the D has been much better than the O in certain recent years, and you are satisfied with the team's record then you would be correct. If on the other hand, if you see that the O has not been what we wanted in a number of recent years, and that this is maybe the major reason why we have poor records against a number of our main rivals and we don't have the tournament success we want, then you would be incorrect.

PPG the past six seasons:

07-08: 79 ppg
08-09: 80 ppg
09-10: 81 ppg
10-11: 73 ppg
11-12 74 ppg
12-13: 70 ppg

The only team that struggled in terms of it's record in that span was the 07-08 team, which was decimated by injuries and surrendered 74.3 ppg. Offense wasn't the problem and, to Mike's point, when JB's teams struggle it usually has more to do with the defensive prowess. Every other team on that list was much better defensively and, not surprisingly, had much better records (08-09 71.7 ppg allowed; 09-10 66.4 ppg allowed; 10-11 63.3 ppg allowed; 11-12 61 ppg allowed; 12-13 58.7 ppg allowed).

Also, the bolded statement makes no sense to me. I would love for our offense to look like it did in 09-10 every year. But that's a really, really high standard. Most teams have some flaws and we've certainly had our share. But how is our record not a referendum on JB's ability to at least get *enough* offense?

The main reason why I asked if you watched SU games is that you said, "I'm not really sure there's an argument for serious offensive problems". It is hard to imagine anyone watching the games last season and not being aware of serious problems on O. The team was consistently poor in the half court O, had bad outside shooting, no O from the center position, featured MCW repeatedly jumping in the air and passing the ball to the opponent, and too-many-to-want-to-remember airballs by TC and DC. Having been in many chat rooms, and read many posts on this board last season, I can assure you that the vast majority of people here think that last season's team had many serious O problems (BTW, the statistics support this opinion).

I'll concede the point that last year's group had major issues offensively and perhaps I didn't properly articulate my sentiment. The point I intended to make was that offense is always relative to defense, IMO. We scored 9 ppg more in 07-08 and were left with 14 losses and an NIT berth to show for it. So while there were putrid stretches in many games last season, that team generally found a way to scratch out enough points down the stretch to win 30 games, reach a BET championship game and get to a final 4. The numbers and artistry were clearly lacking, but there is unquestionably something to be said for scoring at least one more point than most of your opponents, particularly in March.

Beyond watching the games, the NCAA reports that D-1 ppg scoring for the last 10 yrs has been (recent to oldest): 68, 68, 69, 69, 69, 70, 69, 69, 69, 70, so I'm not sure what, "era of drastically decreased scoring across college basketball", you are talking about.

Regarding scoring in general in the NCAA. There were a slew of articles in March of this year discussing the decrease in scoring -- one of them here. An exerpt:

This could be the worst scoring year since 1952, according to college basketball statistician Ken Pomroy. Through March 4 games, the average score is 67.58. Only once since 1952 – in 1982 – has the average dropped to less than 68 points per game. The average last season was 68.01.
​

So while 67.58 ppg doesn't seem much different from 70, it has only happened once since 1952. It doesn't look like much but it's actually pretty significant. The cuse averaged 70 ppg which, despite how ugly it looked out there and how much of that came against the patsies at the front of the schedule, ended up being 2+ ppg better than average in college hoops.

Finally, it is prefectly clear that last year's team went to the FF because of its D and inspite of its O, and lost in the semi's while holding Mich to under 40% shooting because we could only score 56 pts.

I disagree that you can simply discount offense as part of a victory, particularly against good teams late in the year. We found a way to score enough points to win 7 of 9 postseason games. That's worth something. Was it *good* offense? No, but it was enough.

Bottom line: Waters' point was that JB teams generally score pretty well and I'm not sure anything in the past six years proves anything to the contrary.

 

[reedny]

This Cooney bashing is beyond old. The fact that we have people saying his production is not going to cut it is not fair at all. Look at the sample size we have to base Cooney off of. I feel like last season can be overlooked based on the very little amount he played, it was his first season playing college basketball, and he had sat out the previous year. So let's base it off of 4 exhibition games in August where he goes 7-21 from beyond the arc...really!? Is that enough to sit here and talk about how he wont be able to get it done and everyone short of Nolan Hart should be playing the 2 over him? WRONG!!!

And don't think I'm coming at you just because I'm replying to your post specifically. I am simply addressing the notion that Cooney is not the answer at the 2 and we are in trouble there with it being a weak link. There is absolutely no reason to believe that he wont be a productive player and shoot well this season. Not last year, not 4 games in Canada this summer, nothing.

Let's talk about it in March when all the analysts are giving their "keys to beating the orange" and one of them is to not leave this dude open cause he will bury it.

So far, the numbers back me up and hope backs you up. All the same ... I hope you're right. This team is going to struggle offensively without a reliable outside shooter at SG, so if TC starts knocking shyt down .. I'll be the first one to tip my hat.

 

[We Are Syracuse]

I think the biggest ? mark for this years team is the low post offense. Can Syracuse finally develop a low post threat like the year when they had AO as a senior. makes everything easier and they really havent been able to get a consistent post since AO. If DC can assert himself and become a reliable option, I think the offense will be great. If not, it will be tough

 

[Cusefan0307]

I can see why some people may be concerned about Cooney, but suggesting he won't improve is kind of ehhhh (I don't want to offend anyone by saying the word ridiculous). I think he's a talent. He showed he can play defense and get to the basket last year. If he adjusts, and i think we may of seen some of that against Georgetown I think he ends up having a good year.

Anywho for those who wish to look at historical references for some of Syracuse's best shooters may want to look at Andy Rautins freshmen year and Demetris Nichols freshmen and sophmore year. They were both worse than Cooney was last year.

 

[TheRoyalIveyFund]

Exactly what I was thinking, and why I came away from the "Chat" disagreeing with Waters take on the guard rotation. I'm not disputing that BJ may be doing some drills with the forwards, as Waters notes from seeing one early practice. But as the season unfolds, if BJ can shoot the ball and handle it well enough to avoid turnovers -- exactly as we saw him do in Canada after a few freshman jitters -- then he's going to get minutes.

As far as where those minutes will be, Waters and I disagree. The 3 is out (CJ/Roberson), so the 2 is his best chance to play, and it just so happens that this is also a potential weak link in this team.

Now, before you TC fans flame out, yes he might break out, as Waters thinks. Or, he might do exactly what he did all last year (and so far this year), and shoot 26%. If it's door #2, I can almost guaranTEE you that BJ's going to get minutes at SG.

Why not MG, as Waters thinks? Well, I like his (MG's) handle for a 6'7 kid. He's also poised and can definitely fill in for 5 or 6 minutes at the point. But I've seen nothing from him so far that would suggest he could be an outside threat at the 2 -- which is a very important part of JB's offense (not just for points, but also to open up the inside). So unless MG becomes a sharpshooter overnight, and TC undergoes a massive cranial transformation, I'd say Waters has mis-predicted the 2-guard rotation.

This is an interesting post because one of my takeaways was that Mike was really selling TC as a major option. He referenced him many times. However, my expectations are real tempered just because we heard he did well in practice last year but it didn't translate. I think we all believe TC can, and probably will, get there at some point. I'm just not sure if it's this year.

 

[TheRoyalIveyFund]

Personally, Patterson disappointed me in Canada. I don't think he cracks the rotation this year.

While he didn't disappoint me, Matt, I think you're right. I wasn't disappointed because I recall Dasher's post about his play, so what I saw was kind of what I thought. A nice, coachable kid that busts his butt. A kid that is real althletic but maybe not a polished basketball player just yet. One that would not be ready to play a big role for a few years. However, the kind of kid you absolutely want for team for many reasons. He sets a great example, he'll do what it takes and eventually, you'll have a player!

 

[orangefan13]

This Cooney bashing is beyond old. The fact that we have people saying his production is not going to cut it is not fair at all. Look at the sample size we have to base Cooney off of. I feel like last season can be overlooked based on the very little amount he played, it was his first season playing college basketball, and he had sat out the previous year. So let's base it off of 4 exhibition games in August where he goes 7-21 from beyond the arc...really!? Is that enough to sit here and talk about how he wont be able to get it done and everyone short of Nolan Hart should be playing the 2 over him? WRONG!!!

And don't think I'm coming at you just because I'm replying to your post specifically. I am simply addressing the notion that Cooney is not the answer at the 2 and we are in trouble there with it being a weak link. There is absolutely no reason to believe that he wont be a productive player and shoot well this season. Not last year, not 4 games in Canada this summer, nothing.

Let's talk about it in March when all the analysts are giving their "keys to beating the orange" and one of them is to not leave this dude open cause he will bury it.

I agree with what you say, and Cooney missed his first 7 shots in the first canada game as well. The problem is he doesn't make shots off of screens ever, and even when he gets set he messes up his form alot to go along with his misses. He won't be shooting 3's off the dribble. When he can get into the lane he actually has a pretty sweet pullup, but he is rarely going to get that shot. Gbinije could find it alot easier but doesn't have that pullup yet, maybe Cooney can teach it to him.

I just can't see him with more then 8 ppg ( I would guess just over 7) and gbinije 5-6. 14 points per 40 minutes from your sg isn't all that bad, but when you split it between two guys getting 8 and 6 we won't be able to create a mismatch at sg like we will at point, sf and pf, that you might need on a tough night in march. All great coaches and 1-3 seeds aside, if you develop that for march it won't matter if your seed drops 1-2 because of a few bad losses and the commitee looks at how you progress through the year for early losses. If Cooney is closer to 9-12 ppg though, I will be estatic.

Personally, I am more worried about Gbinije backing up SG right now then him backing up point. sg is called sg because it is supposed to put up points.

 

[TheRoyalIveyFund]

I know there can be fluctuations from year to year of the quality of the draft class. But I see Grant as top 20 maybe top 15. I see Roberson as top 5.

Roberson might be the recruit with the strangest recruitment. He kind of surprised some when committed (the Noal V kid and Lawrence were two mentions first) and it was looked at as a real nice haul. However, there's talk about top 5, our top talent, his AAU coach saying #1 pick like Irving? Ten years ago, he'd be the talk of all the talk shows, posts, etc. Even as recently as months ago, McCullough, a year away, got more pub. I cannot wait to see Roberson because I think he's the guy that announcers say "who the heck is he and man is he great."

 

[orangefan13]

Roberson might be the recruit with the strangest recruitment. He kind of surprised some when committed (the Noal V kid and Lawrence were two mentions first) and it was looked at as a real nice haul. However, there's talk about top 5, our top talent, his AAU coach saying #1 pick like Irving? Ten years ago, he'd be the talk of all the talk shows, posts, etc. Even as recently as months ago, McCullough, a year away, got more pub. I cannot wait to see Roberson because I think he's the guy that announcers say "who the heck is he and man is he great."

Can I like this twice?

 

[IthacaMatt]

I know there can be fluctuations from year to year of the quality of the draft class. But I see Grant as top 20 maybe top 15. I see Roberson as top 5.

I love the enthusiasm, but I think Roberson is going to come up a little small on the measurements to get a top 5 spot in the draft.

 

[IthacaMatt]

This Cooney bashing is beyond old. The fact that we have people saying his production is not going to cut it is not fair at all. Look at the sample size we have to base Cooney off of. I feel like last season can be overlooked based on the very little amount he played, it was his first season playing college basketball, and he had sat out the previous year.
Let's talk about it in March when all the analysts are giving their "keys to beating the orange" and one of them is to not leave this dude open cause he will bury it.

I think we need to temper our expectations for Trevor. He was sold as the next great shooting guard, but I think he's going to wind up more like a Mike Hopkins kind of player. Scrappy defense, heady floor game, makes the right pass, streaky shooter who can make them sometimes and get hot, but is not that ultra-reliable guy from 3.

 

[Cusefan0307]

As a fanbase we tend to overestimate the ability of our first year players, regardless if they red shirted or not. DC and Trevor both struggled last year as first year players. There haven't been many guys who have had it right from the beginning for us (Carmelo, Gmac. flynn by necessity) This is why I am not as high on Roberson as some. He's talented, but i'm not sure he will be trusted enough to play big minutes this year. Dion barely even played his freshmen year.
My point is, I don't think we should take a lot of stock into how Trevor and DC played last year. They will have bigger roles and be given an opportunity to flourish this year. At the same time, as talented as the freshmen are I think its better to have little expectations from them, because in most instances they dissappoint. Lot of freshmen have had bad years for Syracuse, but in the end a lot of those players ended up being great players at Syracuse.

 

[BuffOrange]

"Offense is rarely a problem for Jim Boeheim-coached teams." - don't agree with that statement. I'd say it was a problem maybe 3 of the last 6 seasons.

The reaction to this post is umm, weird.
That part of the chat stuck out to me too.
A guy asks a reasonable enough question wondering about our offensive firepower.
In response Waters is the one who brought up coaching, almost implying that it trumps deficiencies in personnel.
Oakland & anyone who disagrees is then a JB hater who doesn't understand SU has been a successful program.
What?