My Hope For This Year

[Moontan]

The more koolaid I drink the better I feel about my 6 win expectation.

Psssst, that's not Kool-Aid.

 

[Townie72]

With all the "I think what Townie was trying to say" posts, let me give it another shot.

Baber's offense and defense (schemes, techniques, tempo, etc) are either:
1. Easy to install ( or easy to partially install to a functional level)
2. Moderately difficult to install
3. Difficult to install (to a functional level)

If it's #1 - Easy to Install - We will probably see results relatively quickly. The downside of this is that if its that easy to install (not hard to learn or to operate), than it won't really be that much of an advantage longer term. And if it works and its easy to install, we'll see lots of people trying to do it and any advantage we have will be short-lived.

If it is #3 - Hard to install --- that probably means SU is going to sputter for a while learning it and operating it. Those looking for a quick fix (points, points, points) are not going to be happy. This could take a year or two or even three.

So, in an odd way, difficulties in 2016 might be "good news" because it means that this really is a revolutionary change. And once we get the system going, few will want to follow (even if they understood how the thing really works and how to install it.) Because fan bases --- always impatient and demanding --- are going to be screaming bloody murder at the bottom of the learning curve.

Now the "scheme" learning curve --- if it is steep --- can be offset by some other things. Babers may be better at game management, play-calling, player selection, player motivation and all those basic coaching things that make coaches coaches.

We will see.

I am reminded of the semi-revolutionary changes Billy Bean incorporated that were described in "Moneyball". It took a while to kick in. Every time I watch the Yankees or Red Sox have those interminable At Bats fouling off pitch after pitch driving up the pitches thrown so they can get to the bullpen, I think about how revolutionary that was as a strategy. I hate it. But it works.

I think I'll like Baber's offense. But this may take a couple of years to put in. And that could be good news.

 

[hoopsupstate]

It's going to be even more difficult next year when you play Florida State, Louisville, Miami, and LSU on the road. I think I'm forgetting someone else too.

 

[Moontan]

Babers

 

[OrangeTarheel]

If Baber's offense and defense are that easy to install, then it would seem that anyone could do it.

That means whatever advantage it produces is going to be short-lived, don't you think?

I'm betting we don't start to see results until late in the season at best. And that more likely we will start to see the difference in year 2.

Now it may also be true that Baber's and his staff are better at a lot of things than just installing and running a new offensive and defensive schemes. This would include assessing and utilizing talent, scouting of opponents strengths and weaknesses, game and clock management, etc.

The degree to which this is all true will translate into more wins earlier.

We will continue to have a talent and speed deficit in 2016. I think that Baber's presence and his system will cause that to shrink. But it's going to take a couple of years.

This is my thinking as well ...except I think that there will be advantages of this offense and defense working together. In other words, preparing for one is OK but both in concert will be difficult.

 

[CuseOnly]

If Baber's offense and defense are that easy to install, then it would seem that anyone could do it.

That means whatever advantage it produces is going to be short-lived, don't you think?

I'm betting we don't start to see results until late in the season at best. And that more likely we will start to see the difference in year 2.

Now it may also be true that Baber's and his staff are better at a lot of things than just installing and running a new offensive and defensive schemes. This would include assessing and utilizing talent, scouting of opponents strengths and weaknesses, game and clock management, etc.

The degree to which this is all true will translate into more wins earlier.

We will continue to have a talent and speed deficit in 2016. I think that Baber's presence and his system will cause that to shrink. But it's going to take a couple of years.

There are really only a handful of folks that know the offense, remember when Babers was hired it was likened to a cult in that way.

Apparently there are even less people that can stop it as evidenced by Baylor's success. Arguably they have been playing against better talent on defense since Briles got there, didn't stop them. And as talent has increased at Baylor, they have scored more points, not less.

You would think that once defensive coordinators had a 4-5 year look at it they would figure it out...but they haven't.

EDIT: Ease of installation is irrelevant, if it works, it works. McDonalds offense was really difficult to install and that didn't mean it was any good. Hackett's Nascar offense was thought up and installed 2 weeks before the season and set records.

 

[rocklloyd]

I'm easy. At the end of the games, I don't want to regret having sat through crappy football wishing that I played golf instead.

 

[TheCusian]

There are really only a handful of folks that know the offense, remember when Babers was hired it was likened to a cult in that way. Apparently there are even less people that can stop it as evidenced by Baylor's success. Arguably they have been playing against better talent on defense since Briles got there, didn't stop them. And as talent has increased at Baylor, they have scored more points, not less. You would think that once defensive coordinators had a 4-5 year look at it they would figure it out...but they haven't. EDIT: Ease of installation is irrelevant, if it works, it works. McDonalds offense was really difficult to install and that didn't mean it was any good. Hackett's Nascar offense was thought up and installed 2 weeks before the season and set records.

Yeah - this can't be undersold. It will be run at Baylor, Tulsa, and Syracuse. I think the OC at Texas is running something similar?

Anyways - it's not easily replicated. It's a relatively easy system to install on O. But Babers has said he wants it to be like breathing. That's one of the reasons for all the reps.

The system on D is all Ward. Babers said he wanted to run the Tampa 2 so he hired the best Tampa 2 guy he could find. That it's easier for the players to pick up speaks to the complexity of Shafer's system I think.

 

[kcsu]

Interesting choice of words.

Personally I would have gone with:


The entire program needs to be cornholed by an identity monster...

But what do I know...people are always telling me to get to the point.

Awesome post

 

[SoBristol]

In relative terms, how easy do you think it was for Lester to install his offense around Dungey, after Hunt went down, or around Mahoney, after Dungey got dinged?

How easy was it for Bullough to build his 2015 defense around only 3 returning starters?

In 2012, Hackett with Nassib converted to a new fast-paced offense in August. The claim at the time was it took 2 weeks.

So, we aren't going to be in better shape starting this season, with more experienced players, and Babers in place?

 

[All4SU]

#1 - Have a football team that makes me proud to have them represent my school both on and off the field. That's pretty much it for me.

 

[Townie72]

Why wouldn't this change in offense and defense be comparable to Boeheim's Zone Defense?

It's not easy to install. You have to commit to it, play it exclusively and recruit to it to make in really effective. It takes players months if not seasons to play it like it needs to be played. It needs to become second-nature to the people that are playing it based on doing it over and over and over again.

There seems to be a school of thought on here that all you need is a couple of weeks. Do you think we could install an option offense in a few weeks and have it be as effective as it needs to be?

 

[CuseOnly]

Why wouldn't this change in offense and defense be comparable to Boeheim's Zone Defense?

It's not easy to install. You have to commit to it, play it exclusively and recruit to it to make in really effective. It takes players months if not seasons to play it like it needs to be played. It needs to become second-nature to the people that are playing it based on doing it over and over and over again.

There seems to be a school of thought on here that all you need is a couple of weeks. Do you think we could install an option offense in a few weeks and have it be as effective as it needs to be?

The team has been running this offense since Spring ball, it hasn't been just a few weeks.

The school of thought that the harder something is to install the better it is, is inherently flawed.

We aren't saying that you need a couple of weeks, we are saying you need an offense that has been proven to work (it has), commit to it (the players have) and execute it (we have heard they can but we shall see). With this offense there are several other things that have been asked and done mostly on the S&C side of things and development.

Keep in mind that our players are pretty smart kids, they have been told what it takes to win with this offense, defense and staff. We haven't had a staff that has been a proven winner since... well ever, that carries a lot of weight with players. They players believe them and so will I.

Anyone who chooses not to is welcome to their thoughts and opinions..

 

[TheCusian]

Why wouldn't this change in offense and defense be comparable to Boeheim's Zone Defense? It's not easy to install. You have to commit to it, play it exclusively and recruit to it to make in really effective. It takes players months if not seasons to play it like it needs to be played. It needs to become second-nature to the people that are playing it based on doing it over and over and over again. There seems to be a school of thought on here that all you need is a couple of weeks. Do you think we could install an option offense in a few weeks and have it be as effective as it needs to be?

Seems like you want this to be a black and white thing, when it's all shades of gray.

Installation is one thing and Dungey has said that it's been done for a week or longer. The trick now is mastery. Which will take much longer (Babers has said 1/2 through his 2nd season it will really click).

So we are in between the end of installation and mastery. How good is that? Who knows.

But we can surmise from his last two stops, that it will be good enough to put pressure on a defense, it will be fast, and it will score more points than we've seen in a long while on the hill.

"Effective as we need it to be" is really hard to quantify. Good enough to win the ACC or good enough to win half our games?

 

[Townie72]

The team has been running this offense since Spring ball, it hasn't been just a few weeks.

The school of thought that the harder something is to install the better it is, is inherently flawed.

We aren't saying that you need a couple of weeks, we are saying you need an offense that has been proven to work (it has), commit to it (the players have) and execute it (we have heard they can but we shall see). With this offense there are several other things that have been asked and done mostly on the S&C side of things and development.

Keep in mind that our players are pretty smart kids, they have been told what it takes to win with this offense, defense and staff. We haven't had a staff that has been a proven winner since... well ever, that carries a lot of weight with players. They players believe them and so will I.

Anyone who chooses not to is welcome to their thoughts and opinions..

I'm unmoved by your logic. This isn't like turning on a light switch.

I think there are levels of understanding that players achieve as they play an offense or defense more and more.

When they start off they know what to do, but can't do it right.

Then they start doing it right, but have to think about it.

At higher levels of understanding they more and more frequently do the right thing without thinking about.

That's the way this season and next year are going to play out.

(Some athletes never do catch on. I'm reminded of freak athlete Lavar Arrington, who ended up in the wrong place too many times and his career suffered greatly.)

 

[TheCusian]

I'm unmoved by your logic. This isn't like turning on a light switch. I think there are levels of understanding that players achieve as they play an offense or defense more and more. When they start off they know what to do, but can't do it right. Then they start doing it right, but have to think about it. At higher levels of understanding they more and more frequently do the right thing without thinking about. That's the way this season and next year are going to play out. (Some athletes never do catch on. I'm reminded of freak athlete Lavar Arrington, who ended up in the wrong place too many times and his career suffered greatly.)

Exactly.

HOW far along they are will dictate the success they will have. By all accounts this is a system teams with no prior knowledge have learned to run in one offseason on their way to a conference championship. So we have hope that we will have some measure of that success this year (though a conference championship will be obviously difficult).

 

[TheCusian]

I'm unmoved by your logic. This isn't like turning on a light switch. I think there are levels of understanding that players achieve as they play an offense or defense more and more. When they start off they know what to do, but can't do it right. Then they start doing it right, but have to think about it. At higher levels of understanding they more and more frequently do the right thing without thinking about. That's the way this season and next year are going to play out. (Some athletes never do catch on. I'm reminded of freak athlete Lavar Arrington, who ended up in the wrong place too many times and his career suffered greatly.)

One more thing: the reps in practice due to tempo accelerate the learning process. I'd bet they've run double or 1.5x the reps they had in any offseason on this hill, modern times.

 

[We Are Syracuse]

I'm easy. At the end of the games, I don't want to regret having sat through crappy football wishing that I played golf instead.

Likewise. Don't want to wake up saturday morning and think "crap, when does Syracuse play again?" Instead- want it to be, "CANT WAIT FOR THE CUSE GAME." This defense will be brutal IMO. Not expecting much on that end. The notion of a crappy defense with a really quick offense scares me b/c of well, Chip Kelly. I do believe once Babers gets it going here, he has the right idea. The Tampa Cover 2 forces teams to have long drives and if we are going down the field and scoring quick, teams will get VERY frustrated and make bad decisions offensively. I do not believe the offense will be at full force this season and as a result, I am not expecting a ton. I AM A BELIEVER IN YOU THO DINO! Year 2 the offense starts to come around more and the defense forces a few more mistakes as a result... This equals 6+ wins

 

[CuseOnly]

I'm unmoved by your logic. This isn't like turning on a light switch.

I think there are levels of understanding that players achieve as they play an offense or defense more and more.

When they start off they know what to do, but can't do it right.

Then they start doing it right, but have to think about it.

At higher levels of understanding they more and more frequently do the right thing without thinking about.

That's the way this season and next year are going to play out.

(Some athletes never do catch on. I'm reminded of freak athlete Lavar Arrington, who ended up in the wrong place too many times and his career suffered greatly.)

OK Nostradamus, you know how this season is going to play out?!

You act like your logic is a foregone conclusion...what makes you think you are right? What are you basing this on?

Is it Babers track record of championships or is it his win loss record?
Is it the kids he inherited at both schools he has been a head coach who seemed to learn this offense pretty quickly? He must have had the smartest kids in the history of those schools to perform like they did and win conference championship after conference championship.

Is it the scenario that he is in...which is the same scenario that he has been in twice before?

Would love to hear the logic behind your opinion because that is all you have stated. Basing it on anything in reality?

 

[Ish88888]

Not worried about the offense at all. We will score, but how fast we play won't matter unless we can stop anyone. Very skeptical about the Tampa 2 in the acc. It may have been an ideal defensive approach in the mac, but we may get picked apart in the acc. I will definitely miss the attacking style we had for the last 10 years. We won games with that defense alone.

 

[cuse309]

I look at this year as a means to an end. If we can get the offense to click early, then we have a shot at 6 or 7 wins if things go well. Overall if we go 4-8 and lose a lot of games 49-40, then it shows we have something real to build on.

 

[CousCuse]

OK Nostradamus, you know how this season is going to play out?!

You act like your logic is a foregone conclusion...what makes you think you are right? What are you basing this on?

Is it Babers track record of championships or is it his win loss record?
Is it the kids he inherited at both schools he has been a head coach who seemed to learn this offense pretty quickly? He must have had the smartest kids in the history of those schools to perform like they did and win conference championship after conference championship.

Is it the scenario that he is in...which is the same scenario that he has been in twice before?

Would love to hear the logic behind your opinion because that is all you have stated. Basing it on anything in reality?

At Eastern Illinois Babers took over for a coaching legend and had a team that made the playoffs 7 out of the previous 10 years . It was loaded with talent and is one of the powers in the Ohio Valley conference . He took the reigns and did a great job in the transition . Bowling Green is one of the powers in the MAC and had won the MAC championship the year before he took over , again hee did a great job and kept BGU at the top of the MAC. Syracuse is by far his greatest challenge , that is why I don't want fans to be impatient . You know , cut him some slack .

 

[Finwad32]

Throw the ball, catch the ball.

Teach up your offense and defense the best you can in the time you have.

Roll the ball out and see who's better every Saturday.

Not everything needs to be a complex algorithm, it's football. Jimmy's and Joe's trump X's and O's. You can have the greatest system in the universe, if your WR's suck then so does your offense.

I think we've got a talented base. A couple outside WR's and a couple more Slots that can play. Keep Dungey protected up front and we'll score some points. Hopefully it's more points than the other team.

We're pretty young and talented on O, I'm not going to use Dino's job security statement to temper my expectations. This was a borderline 6-6 team last year, and the majority of them are back.

Prepare them to be the best team they can be every week and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[TheCusian]

At Eastern Illinois Babers took over for a coaching legend and had a team that made the playoffs 7 out of the previous 10 years . It was loaded with talent and is one of the powers in the Ohio Valley conference . He took the reigns and did a great job in the transition . Bowling Green is one of the powers in the MAC and had won the MAC championship the year before he took over , again hee did a great job and kept BGU at the top of the MAC. Syracuse is by far his greatest challenge , that is why I don't want fans to be impatient . You know , cut him some slack .

Nice try. Coach Spoo was replaced because he had 12 wins in 4 years. They were not loaded with talent any more than we are now after a 4 years of mediocre football.

There is nothing but slack being given. His job is not in danger. He's not worried about fan expectations. He expects far more than we do; that's why he's so confident.

 

[CuseOnly]

At Eastern Illinois Babers took over for a coaching legend and had a team that made the playoffs 7 out of the previous 10 years . It was loaded with talent and is one of the powers in the Ohio Valley conference . He took the reigns and did a great job in the transition . Bowling Green is one of the powers in the MAC and had won the MAC championship the year before he took over , again hee did a great job and kept BGU at the top of the MAC. Syracuse is by far his greatest challenge , that is why I don't want fans to be impatient . You know , cut him some slack .

That Eastern Illinois team he took over was 2-9 when he arrived. Those 7 out of 10 playoff appearances mean nothing for 2012 and 13, just like our rich history means squat for next year.

He also changed both the offense and defense completely for both EIU and BGSU just like he is doing here.

Lets see how much of a power in the MAC BGSU is without Babers next year when another coach has to change systems without their entire staff including the S&C coach.