IthacaMatt
Old Timer / Unofficial Contributor for 25+ years
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- Aug 26, 2011
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First, let's start with the assumptions that Fab and Dion won't be back, which I think is pretty reasonable and most people probably agree.
Then, let's just assume that we don't get Noel. We don't have him yet - maybe we get him, but let's not base our plans for next year on getting a last minute recruit to put us over the top. I mean, when was the last time we signed a guy in the spring signing period ? I can't remember when.
So going by what we have, this is what we're looking at -
CENTER - Baye Keita and Christmas both played pretty well in the tournament and would make a pretty decent center tandem. But with Dujuan Coleman coming in, he's just too big to play the forward spot, so Christmas is likely to move back outside, or at least shift between the 2 positions, like Rick Jackson used to do. Coleman may give us more offense than Fab. He's got soft hands and pretty good footwork. Keita hopefully can put on 20 pounds of muscle by October. Keita is long and intimidating inside. He gave Sullinger a few problems. And he passes fairly well from the high post.
FORWARDS - Our offense is going to come from C.J. Fair and James Southerland. That's a nice pair of bookend forwards. One with a great outside shot, one with a great mid-range game. Both have become more physical players and better rebounders this year. Still, I think that with 3 guys at center, Christmas is likely to get some run here, in part to provide us a legit "POWER forward". Christmas is built like Terrance Roberts. If he can figure out the slides, it will be interesting to see if James comes off the bench as the 6th man next year, with Christmas starting - James providing the instant offense that we got from Dion this year. Having that jolt off the bench demoralizes other teams. Then you have Jerami Grant, who is a smooth and lanky guy. I think he's going to take a year to really get up to the physical level of play, but he's got range on his jumper that C.J. lacks. He blocks shots well and can run the floor. Not physical enough a build to expect him to rebound against Big East level players right away. That will probably take until year 2.
GUARDS - People are ready to say that Carter-Williams will be our leader next year, but I just don't see it. He's a fine player, with a great eye for the pass thru traffic. He dribbles a little high for my taste, though, and I think he's going to be susceptible to turnovers next year. Think about how much we cut down our turnovers this year. That was a huge, invisible key to our success. We used to routinely have games with15-20 turnovers (and still win) because of our running game. This year, with Scoop, we got that down to 10 a game, and had a number of games with only single digit turnovers. We're not likely to see that level of efficiency with the ball next year.
Brandon keeps getting better, but is still not a "leader". He's not vocal enough, and he still gets a bit nervous at times, and still drifts in and out of games. That said, he's kind of like a Derek Jeter kind of player for us - intangibles, makes the right play, good fundamentals, a quiet guy who projects outward calm. He'll have a very solid year for us, but I don't see him as an NBA type of player.
Trevor Cooney I think will be the real deal next year - possibly having a year on par with Andy as a junior as his upside. He got to practice against a tremendous backcourt this year. If he can keep people from getting past him on the drive, I think that he will be next year's surprise player. Yes, I know that everyone knows about him, but I think he will overachieve compared to expectations if he can play good enough defense to stay on the floor.
We have to be concerned about a possible injury at guard next year, since we only have 3 scholarship guards on the team. Will Mookie be back on the team for his senior year as the fourth guard ? Will Boeheim play him if he does come back ? None of our forwards looks like we could count on them to handle the ball and help break a press next season, which is a rarity, when you look back at most SU teams. They usually have that one forward who can bring the ball upcourt against pressure. I don't see either Fair or Southerland as that guy.
All in all, it looks like another Big East contender, with the potential to reach the Sweet 16, which is always kind of our benchmark. If we get Noel, then I think we could go farther. Triche and Southerland will be our only 2 seniors, so 2014 might be even better.
Then, let's just assume that we don't get Noel. We don't have him yet - maybe we get him, but let's not base our plans for next year on getting a last minute recruit to put us over the top. I mean, when was the last time we signed a guy in the spring signing period ? I can't remember when.
So going by what we have, this is what we're looking at -
CENTER - Baye Keita and Christmas both played pretty well in the tournament and would make a pretty decent center tandem. But with Dujuan Coleman coming in, he's just too big to play the forward spot, so Christmas is likely to move back outside, or at least shift between the 2 positions, like Rick Jackson used to do. Coleman may give us more offense than Fab. He's got soft hands and pretty good footwork. Keita hopefully can put on 20 pounds of muscle by October. Keita is long and intimidating inside. He gave Sullinger a few problems. And he passes fairly well from the high post.
FORWARDS - Our offense is going to come from C.J. Fair and James Southerland. That's a nice pair of bookend forwards. One with a great outside shot, one with a great mid-range game. Both have become more physical players and better rebounders this year. Still, I think that with 3 guys at center, Christmas is likely to get some run here, in part to provide us a legit "POWER forward". Christmas is built like Terrance Roberts. If he can figure out the slides, it will be interesting to see if James comes off the bench as the 6th man next year, with Christmas starting - James providing the instant offense that we got from Dion this year. Having that jolt off the bench demoralizes other teams. Then you have Jerami Grant, who is a smooth and lanky guy. I think he's going to take a year to really get up to the physical level of play, but he's got range on his jumper that C.J. lacks. He blocks shots well and can run the floor. Not physical enough a build to expect him to rebound against Big East level players right away. That will probably take until year 2.
GUARDS - People are ready to say that Carter-Williams will be our leader next year, but I just don't see it. He's a fine player, with a great eye for the pass thru traffic. He dribbles a little high for my taste, though, and I think he's going to be susceptible to turnovers next year. Think about how much we cut down our turnovers this year. That was a huge, invisible key to our success. We used to routinely have games with15-20 turnovers (and still win) because of our running game. This year, with Scoop, we got that down to 10 a game, and had a number of games with only single digit turnovers. We're not likely to see that level of efficiency with the ball next year.
Brandon keeps getting better, but is still not a "leader". He's not vocal enough, and he still gets a bit nervous at times, and still drifts in and out of games. That said, he's kind of like a Derek Jeter kind of player for us - intangibles, makes the right play, good fundamentals, a quiet guy who projects outward calm. He'll have a very solid year for us, but I don't see him as an NBA type of player.
Trevor Cooney I think will be the real deal next year - possibly having a year on par with Andy as a junior as his upside. He got to practice against a tremendous backcourt this year. If he can keep people from getting past him on the drive, I think that he will be next year's surprise player. Yes, I know that everyone knows about him, but I think he will overachieve compared to expectations if he can play good enough defense to stay on the floor.
We have to be concerned about a possible injury at guard next year, since we only have 3 scholarship guards on the team. Will Mookie be back on the team for his senior year as the fourth guard ? Will Boeheim play him if he does come back ? None of our forwards looks like we could count on them to handle the ball and help break a press next season, which is a rarity, when you look back at most SU teams. They usually have that one forward who can bring the ball upcourt against pressure. I don't see either Fair or Southerland as that guy.
All in all, it looks like another Big East contender, with the potential to reach the Sweet 16, which is always kind of our benchmark. If we get Noel, then I think we could go farther. Triche and Southerland will be our only 2 seniors, so 2014 might be even better.
