NBA 2018-2019

[Melancer46]

Award Voting

This google doc is tracking award ballots as they come in. It looks like Giannis is going to win MVP by a pretty significant margin, but more interestingly, the DPOY voting right now is only 8-6 in favor of Gobert over Giannis.

 

[Horn88]

Myers is a UCLA alum who was on their 1995 NC team.
Once Durant leaves and the drama Draymond drama coming the following year I could see Myers wanting this job.
I don’t really know how good Myers is.
He did draft Draymond in the second round. He didn’t draft Steph though.
Myers best move was not trading Klay Thompson for Kevin Love and managing the cap to get Andre Iguodala in 2011.

I'll preface this with I probably sound like an idiot saying Myers is anything but brilliant when you look at his roster he's built.

Having said that, I can't remember where or when I read it but there was a good aticle on how this GS run was equal parts luck and great roster management.

• GS offered Milwaukee their choice of Monta or Steph in the Bogut deal and Bucks chose Monta because they didn't trust Steph's ankles.
• Steph had ankle problems so he signed a team friendly deal before he exploded that ultimately gave them cap flexibility to sign Green, Klay and Iggy to extensions and then bring in Durant. Most of those moves are impossible if Steph signs a market deal or doesn't have the ankle issues early on but that was a gamble on GS side too.
• Barnes turned down an extension betting on himself that ultimately gave them the cap space to go after Durant.
• They won their first ring when they got a Cleveland team missing Kyrie and Love in the Finals and didn't play one team in the West who had their entire starting 5 at full strength.

 

[Melancer46]

I'll preface this with I probably sound like an idiot saying Myers is anything but brilliant when you look at his roster he's built.

Having said that, I can't remember where or when I read it but there was a good aticle on how this GS run was equal parts luck and great roster management.

• GS offered Milwaukee their choice of Monta or Steph in the Bogut deal and Bucks chose Monta because they didn't trust Steph's ankles.
• Steph had ankle problems so he signed a team friendly deal before he exploded that ultimately gave them cap flexibility to sign Green, Klay and Iggy to extensions and then bring in Durant. Most of those moves are impossible if Steph signs a market deal or doesn't have the ankle issues early on but that was a gamble on GS side too.
• Barnes turned down an extension betting on himself that ultimately gave them the cap space to go after Durant.
• They won their first ring when they got a Cleveland team missing Kyrie and Love in the Finals and didn't play one team in the West who had their entire starting 5 at full strength.

That Steph-Golden State thing has continued to haunt my dreams for so long. It's folklore in Bucks circles.

 

[Alsacs]

I'll preface this with I probably sound like an idiot saying Myers is anything but brilliant when you look at his roster he's built.

Having said that, I can't remember where or when I read it but there was a good aticle on how this GS run was equal parts luck and great roster management.

• GS offered Milwaukee their choice of Monta or Steph in the Bogut deal and Bucks chose Monta because they didn't trust Steph's ankles.
• Steph had ankle problems so he signed a team friendly deal before he exploded that ultimately gave them cap flexibility to sign Green, Klay and Iggy to extensions and then bring in Durant. Most of those moves are impossible if Steph signs a market deal or doesn't have the ankle issues early on but that was a gamble on GS side too.
• Barnes turned down an extension betting on himself that ultimately gave them the cap space to go after Durant.
• They won their first ring when they got a Cleveland team missing Kyrie and Love in the Finals and didn't play one team in the West who had their entire starting 5 at full strength.

l think Myers is a good GM. I just think he wants to get paid and get ahead of the Warriors downfall.
He is an LA guy and the Lakers are a top NBA job.
Belichick got lucky with Brady in the 6th round so good GMs get lucky a lot.

I don’t think Myers is the best GM I would put Daryl Morley, Danny Ainge, Masai Ujiri, and Sam Presti above him but he is damn good.

 

[Horn88]

l think Myers is a good GM. I just think he wants to get paid and get ahead of the Warriors downfall.
He is an LA guy and the Lakers are a top NBA job.
Belichick got lucky with Brady in the 6th round so good GMs get lucky a lot.

I don’t think Myers is the best GM I would put Daryl Morley, Danny Ainge, Masai Ujiri, and Sam Presti above him but he is damn good.

Lakers have so many tailwinds that I don't think they necessarily need the best or even a great GM. Even just a really good or good GM would be an enormous upgrade and could get them to be a championship contender. If they do get a great GM then Lakers could end up becoming a monster.

I really think if Durant actually leaves GS then the league will be wide open next year and is going to be a lot of fun.

 

[moqui]

Going gray: Sports TV viewers skew older

The average age of an NBA viewer is 42.
The average age of an MLB viewer is 57.

MLB has a problem in 20 years.

full game viewership is declining but so is it's value as a key metric. legalized gambling, the popularity of daily fantasy sports, and the length of the mlb season will keep baseball robust even as full game viewership ages & declines.

 

[Alsacs]

If the Lakers hire Ty Lue over Brian Shaw the franchise won’t win squat and they won’t get non-Klutch FAs.

 

[moqui]

Right, but that's kind of my point. The Lakers are an attractive destination for many reasons.

well, they were, anyway. today, i'm not so sure

jerry buss was one of the greatest owners in the history of team sports, trailing perhaps only george halas.

but his children aren't showing the same skills. they are operating a dysfunctional family business in a league of corporate sharks.

the buss children + the disliked rob pelinka + an aging lebron with a divided focus ≠ buss + west + showtime lakers

 

[Alsacs]

So Memphis is slotted into the 8th pick.
Unless one of the teams 9th-14th move up to the top 4.
They will keep their pick and not convey it to Boston.
Don’t know if next year Memphis will be bad so the 9th pick this year might have more value than a future pick.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If the Lakers hire Ty Lue over Brian Shaw the franchise won’t win squat and they won’t get non-Klutch FAs.

That’s what’s going to happen. Lebron won the power play.

 

[Melancer46]

So Memphis is slotted into the 8th pick.
Unless one of the teams 9th-14th move up to the top 4.
They will keep their pick and not convey it to Boston.
Don’t know if next year Memphis will be bad so the 9th pick this year might have more value than a future pick.

If I understand probability correctly, which I may not, I think there’s a greater than 50% chance of a team moving up ahead of Memphis. I feel like I must be misunderstanding how to add the probabilities together though

 

[OttoinGrotto]

If the Lakers hire Ty Lue over Brian Shaw the franchise won’t win squat and they won’t get non-Klutch FAs.

The Lakers hiring Ty Lue writes the foreword for the book How to Become a Clown Show.

 

[Alsacs]

If I understand probability correctly, which I may not, I think there’s a greater than 50% chance of a team moving up ahead of Memphis. I feel like I must be misunderstanding how to add the probabilities together though

Probabilities give Memphis a 57.5% to
Keep the pick.
There is a 42.5% chance Boston gets the pick.
I actually want the pick in the minority because I don’t see Memphis being bottom 6 bad next year.
Plus I want Bol Bol in this draft and I don’t see him falling to the Sacramento pick.
He is going to go bottom top 10 which would be right in that Memphis spot.

 

[Knicks411]

If I understand probability correctly, which I may not, I think there’s a greater than 50% chance of a team moving up ahead of Memphis. I feel like I must be misunderstanding how to add the probabilities together though

I've been following the lottery for a long (and i mean a LONG time, i'm a knicks fan) and i'm still not totally 100% sure how it all works so i feel you.

Tankathon says 42% chance they pick 9 or higher. I guess Memphis holding onto their 8 spot this year is worst case?

 

[Alsacs]

I've been following the lottery for a long (and i mean a LONG time, i'm a knicks fan) and i'm still not totally 100% sure how it all works so i feel you.

Tankathon says 42% chance they pick 9 or higher. I guess Memphis holding onto their 8 spot this year is worst case?

Memphis keeping their pick can go either way.
If the Celtics didn’t have 3 other first round picks this year I wouldn’t want it but I want the player I mentioned and the Memphis pick would be perfect for that player.

If the Grizzlies keep the pick I don’t see the Celtics getting a better pick next year.
The pick in 2020 is top 6 protected.
2021 it’s unprotectef.

I don’t see Memphis as bottom 6 bad next year.

 

[Knicks411]

Memphis keeping their pick can go either way.
If the Celtics didn’t have 3 other first round picks this year I wouldn’t want it but I want the player I mentioned and the Memphis pick would be perfect for that player.

If the Grizzlies keep the pick I don’t see the Celtics getting a better pick next year.
The pick in 2020 is top 6 protected.
2021 it’s unprotectef.

I don’t see Memphis as bottom 6 bad next year.

I was thinking from the Memphis POV, there are basically three options

1) Move into the top 4, make the pick
2) Stay at 8, make the pick
3) Drop to 9 or worse lose the pick

2 is the one they want to avoid, I would imagine.

I could see Memphis trying to move Conley and bottoming out. Though I do like Jaren Jackson an awful lot.

Moving on to whats important (gambling), am I wrong to like Utah +240 to win their series?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Probabilities give Memphis a 57.5% to
Keep the pick.
There is a 42.5% chance Boston gets the pick.
I actually want the pick in the minority because I don’t see Memphis being bottom 6 bad next year.
Plus I want Bol Bol in this draft and I don’t see him falling to the Sacramento pick.
He is going to go bottom top 10 which would be right in that Memphis spot.

Bol Bol has been forgotten by a lot of people. Wonder if that's a name that'll heat back up as the draft approaches.

 

[OrangeDW]

Memphis fired Bickerstaff? Why?

Cleveland fired Drew? Why?

That Sacramento firing was weird too.

No coincidence that all 3 franchises are historical losers?(Cleveland lucked into LeBron being born in Ohio...but they really suck)

 

[Melancer46]

Bol Bol has been forgotten by a lot of people. Wonder if that's a name that'll heat back up as the draft approaches.

I’d sure as hell feel better about him than spending a top 5-10 pick on Reddish

 

[Melancer46]

I was thinking from the Memphis POV, there are basically three options

1) Move into the top 4, make the pick
2) Stay at 8, make the pick
3) Drop to 9 or worse lose the pick

2 is the one they want to avoid, I would imagine.

I could see Memphis trying to move Conley and bottoming out. Though I do like Jaren Jackson an awful lot.

Moving on to whats important (gambling), am I wrong to like Utah +240 to win their series?

I have Houston (do I have the right matchup?) beating Utah but I think it’s close enough that those are good odds. Parlay that with one of the top 4 East seeds imo.

 

[Knicks411]

Memphis fired Bickerstaff? Why?

Cleveland fired Drew? Why?

That Sacramento firing was weird too.

No coincidence that all 3 franchises are historical losers?(Cleveland lucked into LeBron being born in Ohio...but they really suck)

I dont think the Drew one should be a surprise; dude was just an interim coach who didn't even really want to take the job if i remember.

The other two? Yeah. Kings seem to fire the coach any time they have an ok season

 

[OrangeDW]

I’d sure as hell feel better about him than spending a top 5-10 pick on Reddish

Cam is what some of my friends and I used to refer to as a “NyQuil”. He will vanish and make zero impact for long stretches of games. He’s going to get somebody fired IMO.

 

[Alsacs]

Vlade wants to hire Luke Walton.
Sorry but that guy doesn’t deserve a second job so soon.
I don’t get it.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Vlade wants to hire Luke Walton.
Sorry but that guy doesn’t deserve a second job so soon.
I don’t get it.

Eh, I don't know. He wasn't great this year but I don't put what the Lakers went through this season at his feet much.

 

[Knicks411]

Cam is what some of my friends and I used to refer to as a “NyQuil”. He will vanish and make zero impact for long stretches of games. He’s going to get somebody fired IMO.

It's astonishing to me he's still being talked up as a high pick. He shot 35.6% from the field last season. And the defenses were usually pretty preoccupied with Zion and Barrett, so you'd think he might have had some good looks