NBA Thread 2020-21 Season

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,010
Like
19,306
Tough to see Raptors lose Ibaka, especially to the Clippers, but they were not going to offer him any more than one year, or any type of player option. And they were not going to offer that to any big on the market. So the fall from an Ibaka/Gasol Centre Pairing, to whatever we get will be substantial.

However, this was always meant to be a transition year for the Raptors. The only way they could have changed their path and run it all back, was if Siakam continued to progress from 2019 Finals and 2019/20 Early Season Play and developed into a real star -- but he stagnated and played poorly.

Keep max FA space for 2021, and build along 3 solid starters that are all less than 27 (Siakam, FVV, Anunoby). Terrance Davis would have been part of the core as a cheap piece, but he is an idiot.

The next moves will be interesting:
- Will Lowry get traded for future assets before the deadline? I can see him being one of the more attractive pieces available this year for teams trying to go over the top... that being said with a $30 million expiring and the Raptors having no interest in losing cap space for 2021 fits will be tough to find.
- I think Powell is as good as gone. He will certainly net some sort of outside of lotto first.
- Then there is the situation of Terrance Davis who was a top 8 rookie last year. Unfortunately, he has been an idiot this offseason. I can't see the Raptors keeping a girlfriend assaulter around. His market is probably no more than a second rounder unless they surprisingly keep him.

As for Ibaka - he is clearly looking for a championship ring and trusts Kawhi in that regard. He will help the Clips more than Harrell and provides some good leadership. As I mentioned before the Clippers need some leaders who can accept Kawhi's off court issues and get the team to focus on Kawhi's on court leadership. They did not have that last year and there was turmoil. Ibaka should help with that.

But Ibaka also refused to commit to the Clippers for more than a year. He certainly trusts Kawhi on the court, but he knows he is a snake off it. He knows that if things go awry for the Clips again, Kawhi is likely as good as gone this offseason.
 

Day2

Living Legend
Joined
Jul 7, 2015
Messages
11,639
Like
16,158
But Ibaka also refused to commit to the Clippers for more than a year. He certainly trusts Kawhi on the court, but he knows he is a snake off it. He knows that if things go awry for the Clips again, Kawhi is likely as good as gone this offseason.
 

Knicks411

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 29, 2011
Messages
12,556
Like
10,186
One can reasonably expect that Hayward would positively impact that point differential.

Do you know of anything that actually does look at point differential from one year and how accurately it predicts record the following year? I can't point to anything specific, but the reliability of record prediction models are generally pretty bad because they regress too much to the mean and put everyone pretty close to .500, when we know that actual record distribution of wins and losses looks a lot lumpier than that.


Short answer: no.
Longer answer: Everything I know about this kind of stuff would tell me that if you take, for instance, a group of teams that had the same record in one season, but one group had a better point differential than the other, the team that had the better point differential would have a better record in the next season. But again, I refer you to my short answer.
 

jncuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 19, 2012
Messages
13,010
Like
19,306
Short answer: no.
Longer answer: Everything I know about this kind of stuff would tell me that if you take, for instance, a group of teams that had the same record in one season, but one group had a better point differential than the other, the team that had the better point differential would have a better record in the next season. But again, I refer you to my short answer.

I have read an article about it in Hockey some time back. Goal differential in a prior season is much more predictive than W/L record. Similar theory exists in baseball analytics. Can't see why it would not hold in basketball either.

Differential as better predictor of success was one of the earlier findings of the analytic revolution several years back.
 

Knicks411

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 29, 2011
Messages
12,556
Like
10,186
So I was bored, and this is a very quick and in no way the final word or anything, but

In the last 20 years, I took a look at all the teams that won between 40, 41, or 42 games in a season (so as close to 500 as I could get, but I expanded by one game either way to include more teams.) There have been 59 teams in the last 20 years that fir the criteria, they had a total W-L of 2,427-2,410, so basically there were a few more 42 win teams than 40, but very close to 500.

Obviously, there are a lot of moving parts here, this wouldn't account for teams large personnel moves or anything like that, but the 25 teams that were in my sample and outscored their opponents in the season averaged 41 wins in the next season, while the 34 teams that were outscored averaged 39 wins the next season, so I think there is something there.

Anyway, I Looked at the Hornets team page on BBref again as I was doing this, they went 23-42 last year! Either way, they definitely sucked last year, whether or not they finished in 9th in the East. (Obviously Hayward should make them better. But they did outperform they pytag record by 4 games, so maybe I can see how teams that outplay their pythag in a season do the next year.
 

OttoinGrotto

Run clowns in Archbold
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
39,618
Like
90,083
I have read an article about it in Hockey some time back. Goal differential in a prior season is much more predictive than W/L record. Similar theory exists in baseball analytics. Can't see why it would not hold in basketball either.

Differential as better predictor of success was one of the earlier findings of the analytic revolution several years back.
I would imagine the longer the season, the more predictive it becomes.

But again, I will die on the hill that Hayward will both positively impact the Hornets point differential and W/L record.

Btw nice to see Atlanta trying to make a leap forward. I like it.
 

Knicks411

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 29, 2011
Messages
12,556
Like
10,186
I would imagine the longer the season, the more predictive it becomes.

But again, I will die on the hill that Hayward will both positively impact the Hornets point differential and W/L record.

Btw nice to see Atlanta trying to make a leap forward. I like it.

Right, I def feel like I am missing the point here a little with re: Hayward. I don't think anyone would dispute that claim.

On Atlanta, shouldnt the Kings just match Bogdanovic? I don't get why they seem so quick to move on from him. (Though I agree with your main Atlanta point)
 

OttoinGrotto

Run clowns in Archbold
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
39,618
Like
90,083
Right, I def feel like I am missing the point here a little with re: Hayward. I don't think anyone would dispute that claim.

On Atlanta, shouldnt the Kings just match Bogdanovic? I don't get why they seem so quick to move on from him. (Though I agree with your main Atlanta point)
Who knows what the Kings are thinking/will do?
 

STEVEHOLT

There are FIVE letters in the name BLAIN.
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
10,359
Like
14,399
One can reasonably expect that Hayward would positively impact that point differential.

Do you know of anything that actually does look at point differential from one year and how accurately it predicts record the following year? I can't point to anything specific, but the reliability of record prediction models are generally pretty bad because they regress too much to the mean and put everyone pretty close to .500, when we know that actual record distribution of wins and losses looks a lot lumpier than that.


NBA point differential prediction models are problematic because of the significant “garbage time” effect that creates very misleading final scores
 

OrangeDW

Cmon. Kadary’s better
Joined
Aug 8, 2012
Messages
40,727
Like
101,441
Lakers get Gasol. He looked old and lumbering to me last year. Jncuse any thoughts? What is LA getting here?

That Howard story for how we lost him sounds like par for the course with that guy. Frustrating though.
 

Horn88

2nd String
Joined
Nov 28, 2018
Messages
607
Like
1,045
Lakers get Gasol. He looked old and lumbering to me last year. Jncuse any thoughts? What is LA getting here?

I think it helps them a lot. Gives them a big body that can eat minutes at the 5 during the regular season to save AD from some wear and tear.

He’ll be able to stretch the floor a little bit relatively speaking to help with spacing for AD and Bron on offense and with his passing too. Then in the playoffs they’ll really only need him to play big minutes probably if they need a big body for Jokic or Embiid. Other than that AD, Harrell and maybe Markief Morris will be plenty at the 5 with most teams playing small now.

Also kinda expect them to bring Cousins back and see what he can give them after so much time off. Wonder what his body is still able to do from an agility perspective after all the lower body injuries.
 

chugg21

Gritty, High IQ, Scrappy, Gym Rat, Lunch Pail Guy
Joined
Apr 3, 2013
Messages
5,217
Like
7,127
Tell me that again when he acquires Austin.
How about now? Could've had him for next to nothing and didn't.
 

Melancer46

Hall of Fame
Joined
Dec 1, 2011
Messages
7,646
Like
7,983
Lakers get Gasol. He looked old and lumbering to me last year. Jncuse any thoughts? What is LA getting here?

Harrell/Gasol should be an upgrade over Dwight/McGee, but I don't think it's as much of an upgrade as people in the media do. Gasol is basically just a guy at this point; a smart guy, but just a guy nonetheless.
 

Alsacs

Internet Man, Internet Hero or Internet Scout!!
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
55,980
Like
69,626
Harrell/Gasol should be an upgrade over Dwight/McGee, but I don't think it's as much of an upgrade as people in the media do. Gasol is basically just a guy at this point; a smart guy, but just a guy nonetheless.
Gasol was single handily the difference in the Celtics-Raptors playoff series.
He was such a negative player on the court I didn’t get why he played.

He is a player living off his name. He wasn’t a good defender in that series and his shooting was down.
The Lakers don’t need him to be anything more than a body. If they are expecting another Dwight Howard year from this year from him I wouldn’t expect it.
The Harrel, Matthews signings just redid their bench.
LeBron is going to definitely take some games off this year as he earned that with this deep title run.
The Lakers now have a bench to survive it. If Gasol wasn’t injured in the playoffs then he is cooked.
 

Arangeman

Starter
Joined
Mar 18, 2017
Messages
1,566
Like
2,630
That’s what I saw in Gasol too. If his name wasn’t Gasol no one would care. I’d rather have just kept Howard or had both. Maybe Philly will get sick of Howard halfway through the season.
 

Briancuse

Living Legend
Joined
Feb 16, 2014
Messages
27,521
Like
33,693
BTW, Look at the story in the NY Post Today. Once the Knicks few top free agent options Van Fleet and Heyward went off the board they resorted to taking fliers on one year fringe free agents with the eyes at Tanking the upcoming year for Cade Cunningham. I'm on board.
Another failed offseason for the Knicks, yay lets tank for a 25 pct chance at best to get Cade Cunningham.
 

chugg21

Gritty, High IQ, Scrappy, Gym Rat, Lunch Pail Guy
Joined
Apr 3, 2013
Messages
5,217
Like
7,127
Another failed offseason for the Knicks, yay lets tank for a 25 pct chance at best to get Cade Cunningham.
Wasn't really anything they could have done much differently. There wasn't anyone available that would move the needle. Would just be overpaying for guys that weren't difference makers. It's actually more encouraging that they didn't do anything too stupid like last year.
 

Horn88

2nd String
Joined
Nov 28, 2018
Messages
607
Like
1,045
Gasol was single handily the difference in the Celtics-Raptors playoff series.
He was such a negative player on the court I didn’t get why he played.

He is a player living off his name. He wasn’t a good defender in that series and his shooting was down.
The Lakers don’t need him to be anything more than a body. If they are expecting another Dwight Howard year from this year from him I wouldn’t expect it.
The Harrel, Matthews signings just redid their bench.
LeBron is going to definitely take some games off this year as he earned that with this deep title run.
The Lakers now have a bench to survive it. If Gasol wasn’t injured in the playoffs then he is cooked.

The shooting is interesting because he shot 38.5% from 3 in the regular season but then an awful 19% from 3 in the playoffs. I imagine he’ll get plenty of open looks at the top of the key with teams focusing on Bron and AD it will just be a matter of if he shoots it like he did in regular season or last playoffs.

Lakers would struggle last year when their role guys went cold and they’d go stretches where they couldn’t score. The moves they made make them much more potent on offense when Bron or AD sit by bringing In Schroeder, Harrell, Matthews, Gasol to replace Green, Rondo, Dwight, Javale.
 

OttoinGrotto

Run clowns in Archbold
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
39,618
Like
90,083
Fwiw Knicks fans Jazz fans are chagrined that the Knicks turned around and got better assets than what the Jazz traded to them.
 

Online statistics

Members online
155
Guests online
735
Total visitors
890

Top Bottom