NC State line

[upperdeck]

sharps jump in when the line makes sense to them.. if the line going up is better for the sharps they wont jump in until the public is doing pushing it up.. you wont know what the sharps think until its all over.. it also makes a difference how much money is bet on any single line.. if 25K in a house is on SU and one big dog comes in and bets 50K cause he is an alum the line will jump and no public or sharp money is being bet..

the line jumped on the sox yesterday at southpoint cause one dude bet 500K on them. thats not a sharp but it moves the line.

 

[longtimefan]

Sharps continuing to play on NC State. Line moves to -2.5 Wolfpack. Bottom line is we are going to have to play very well to win.

ESPN's FPI, which is based on computer simulations (10,000?), has SU at 51%. So we have a true tossup.

 

[otisco]

sharps jump in when the line makes sense to them.. if the line going up is better for the sharps they wont jump in until the public is doing pushing it up.. you wont know what the sharps think until its all over.. it also makes a difference how much money is bet on any single line.. if 25K in a house is on SU and one big dog comes in and bets 50K cause he is an alum the line will jump and no public or sharp money is being bet..

the line jumped on the sox yesterday at southpoint cause one dude bet 500K on them. thats not a sharp but it moves the line.

Agree with all that, except that sharps do jump on lines early after release, not just later after they see where the public moves the line.

 

[Pyle]

Ok I admit, I don't bet. What is a sharp? Cause all i see is...

 

[Scotch]

sharps jump in when the line makes sense to them.. if the line going up is better for the sharps they wont jump in until the public is doing pushing it up.. you wont know what the sharps think until its all over.. it also makes a difference how much money is bet on any single line.. if 25K in a house is on SU and one big dog comes in and bets 50K cause he is an alum the line will jump and no public or sharp money is being bet..

the line jumped on the sox yesterday at southpoint cause one dude bet 500K on them. thats not a sharp but it moves the line.

Agree, but sharps also move early on initial lines they think are off, and recognize that those initial lines are some of best opportunities to exploit. For the line to move from Syracuse -1 to NCST -2 means some serious dudes weighed in heavily in favor of the Wolfpack. Books don't move lines like that based on dumb money.

 

[cuse10]

via CBS Sports talking heads

Against the Spread

Straight up

 

[otisco]

Agree, but sharps also move early on initial lines they think are off, and recognize that those initial lines are some of best opportunities to exploit. For the line to move from Syracuse -1 to NCST -2 means some serious dudes weighed in heavily in favor of the Wolfpack. Books don't move lines like that based on dumb money.

Perzactly.

 

[otisco]

Agree, but sharps also move early on initial lines they think are off, and recognize that those initial lines are some of best opportunities to exploit. For the line to move from Syracuse -1 to NCST -2 means some serious dudes weighed in heavily in favor of the Wolfpack. Books don't move lines like that based on dumb money.

It’s actually moved even more than that. Cuse opened -2.5 and it has swung all the way to State -2.5. 5 point swings are rare, and reflect heavyweight money not public.

 

[CousCuse]

It’s actually moved even more than that. Cuse opened -2.5 and it has swung all the way to State -2.5. 5 point swings are rare, and reflect heavyweight money not public.

They're not going to call any holding penalties on their o-line.

 

[690West]

Ok I admit, I don't bet. What is a sharp? Cause all i see is...

View attachment 142606

It’s a supposed professional bettor. But don’t be fooled, 90% of “sharps” lose money net of vigorish just like The public. That’s why it means literally nothing where the “sharp” money is betting. There are hundreds of unknown variables at play every game.

 

[upperdeck]

the "sharps" did well i guess...

people need to understand something else.. the line does not always follow the money like you think. the the bears game today the line opened at 7 it went up to 9 yet the money is 80% on the bears and 80% of the bets
are too. so thinking lines are move because of Sharps is not always a correct thing.