NCAA chances

[Mano22]

These are pretty rough obv.

(1) We beat Louisville - Nothing else matters, we are in for sure regardless of GT and ACCT.

(2) We lost to Lousville, beat GT - We are 90% in, a win in the ACCT makes it 100%.

(3) We lose both of the last 2 - I think with a first round ACCT loss we are 50/50, with one ACCT win we are 75%, and with 2 ACCT wins we are 90+%.

In summary, I think we only need 1 more win to more or less lock it up, depending on where the win comes, and somehow we are coinflip-ish even if we go 0-3 down the stretch, which just seems crazy to me, but that is where people seem to have us.

 

[JOC44]

I agree we need one more. I don't agree that we would be 50/50 if we lost the next three. That would make us 17-15 with some really bad losses, just two road/neutral wins, and riding a 1-6 streak. I don't see any way that resume gets in.

 

[Mano22]

I think we basically have to be 50/50 with 0 wins if we are like 80+% with 1 win. Can one win really take us from like 25% to 85%? Feels like a lot for a single win. I could be off and our chances are actually a lot lower with only 1 more win.

 

[jncuse]

I think we basically have to be 50/50 with 0 wins if we are like 80+% with 1 win. Can one win really take us from like 25% to 85%? Feels like a lot for a single win. I could be off and our chances are actually a lot lower with only 1 more win.

I just can't see 0 wins being enough... I view it as about 5%. But you raise a very interesting and valid point -- why would we go from basically no chance to high certainty based on just one win. I think one win makes a big difference, but does it make the difference between clear in and clear out? Probably not unless it's Louisville. I think it might be 60/40 with one more win, but still not clearly in.

 

[CuseMan4]

This is a weird year, last years team would probably be a 7/8 seed in this years tourney...there are going to be a lot of upsets this year in the tourney. If we lose to Louisville and beat GT we have a good chance. If we beat GT and win 1 ACC tourney game we are pretty much a lock.

Needless to say just beat Louisville we are in, or what the heck, just win the ACC tourney, we've seen weirder things happen as Cuse fans and it would be the perfect way to end this crazy ACC year:noidea:

 

[SoBeCuse]

- Assuming we lose to UL and beat GTech I still think we need one in ACCT to feel SAFE.

- Lose the next two and we might need to get to the ACCT title game to make it. The no major road wins and the OOC disaster is still a big red flag in our resume.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I agree we need one more. I don't agree that we would be 50/50 if we lost the next three. That would make us 17-15 with some really bad losses, just two road/neutral wins, and riding a 1-6 streak. I don't see any way that resume gets in.

Agree. That scenario would only happen with a room full of orange-goggled committee members.

 

[JRHEETER]

Gotta get one more win along the way whether it be GT, UL or the ACCT.

And IMO if We can't pull out a win in any of those games we probably don't deserve to be in the tournament.

With that being said, I have the the upmost confidence in JB to get us to the dance. From there, anything can happen.

 

[JLine]

Beat GaTech, and one in the ACCT then we should be locked in. You never know, but it would be insane to leave us out. Beat just GaTech, and we should still be in.

 

[JLine]

We are still 17th in odds to win it all, FWIW.

 

[Jack Hall]

We are still 17th in odds to win it all, FWIW.

Thats in the back of my mind- does the selection committee think like Vegas thinks, or similarly do they keep in mind that JB got to FF last year; does it affect how they seed the Orange? Probably not but we ll see

 

[longislandcuse]

No way ACC only gets 8 teams and 9/10 are Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Tech still has Notre Dame, a Pitt team that's playing much better and us.

GT could very well lose out and if our only win comes against them. We're in at ACC #9.

That's an obvious scenario where we 100% get in with only one win.

 

[Marsh01]

Two wins completely locks it up. One may do it as well. Zero wins and I would be nervous

 

[jncuse]

No way ACC only gets 8 teams and 9/10 are Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Tech still has Notre Dame, a Pitt team that's playing much better and us.

GT could very well lose out and if our only win comes against them. We're in at ACC #9.

That's an obvious scenario where we 100% get in with only one win.

I don't think the committee is counting # of teams per conference.

For example if it's Syracuse vs Illinois for the final spot, they are not saying the ACC has "x" the Big Ten has "x", we better pick team from that conference.

 

[RandygoCuse]

Zero wins, I don't think we make it. Then again, it seems they are always talking about a weak bubble.

 

[longislandcuse]

I don't think the committee is counting # of teams per conference.

For example if it's Syracuse vs Illinois for the final spot, they are not saying the ACC has "x" the Big Ten has "x", we better pick team from that conference.

I just think that there would be an outcry in the CBB world if the ACC doesn't get 9. You may be right though.

 

[orangenirvana]

Seems like the only thing the committee really cared about last year was Top 50 wins.

That's why teams with poor computer rankings like Syracuse (five Top 50 wins), Temple (five Top 50 wins) and Tulsa (four Top 50 wins), got in over teams with good computer rankings like St. Mary's (two top 50 wins), San Diego State (one Top 50 win) and Valparaiso (one Top 50 win).

If they remain consistent then SU will be in even with a 17-15 record.

But you never know. The committee could take a completely different approach this season.

 

[Ryand877]

I think one more win does the trick, regardless of who. I also think no more wins and we are on the outside looking in.

 

[pearl31]

Seems like the only thing the committee really cared about last year was Top 50 wins.

That's why teams with poor computer rankings like Syracuse (five Top 50 wins), Temple (five Top 50 wins) and Tulsa (four Top 50 wins), got in over teams with good computer rankings like St. Mary's (two top 50 wins), San Diego State (one Top 50 win) and Valparaiso (one Top 50 win).

If they remain consistent then SU will be in even with a 17-15 record.

But you never know. The committee could take a completely different approach this season.

yep, that's the trick, you/I/we just don't know what the committee will do from one year to the next

 

[Col. Bleep]

These are pretty rough obv.

(1) We beat Louisville - Nothing else matters, we are in for sure regardless of GT and ACCT.

(2) We lost to Lousville, beat GT - We are 90% in, a win in the ACCT makes it 100%.

(3) We lose both of the last 2 - I think with a first round ACCT loss we are 50/50, with one ACCT win we are 75%, and with 2 ACCT wins we are 90+%.

In summary, I think we only need 1 more win to more or less lock it up, depending on where the win comes, and somehow we are coinflip-ish even if we go 0-3 down the stretch, which just seems crazy to me, but that is where people seem to have us.

Very nice analysis.
The Orange need to beat Louisville or have at least 19 in the win column to be an absolute definite tourney team.

If we reach 20 wins it will be really remarkable... given that just 6 or 7 weeks ago a valid opinion was that this might be Jim Boeheim's first losing season and this was the worst "team" he ever had.

 

[Eric15]

These are pretty rough obv.

(1) We beat Louisville - Nothing else matters, we are in for sure regardless of GT and ACCT.

(2) We lost to Lousville, beat GT - We are 90% in, a win in the ACCT makes it 100%.

(3) We lose both of the last 2 - I think with a first round ACCT loss we are 50/50, with one ACCT win we are 75%, and with 2 ACCT wins we are 90+%.

If we are 17-15 (9-9), I would give us a 5-10% chance of making the tournament, at absolute best.

 

[JrodCuse]

If we are 17-15 (9-9), I would give us a 5-10% chance of making the tournament, at absolute best.

I think that % is very low. This is a super weak bubble. Which bubble teams have a stronger resume?

 

[Ryand877]

If we are 17-15 (9-9), I would give us a 5-10% chance of making the tournament, at absolute best.

I agree. As I said above , I think the percentage goes up much higher with one more win, regardless of opponent.

 

[djorange1989]

I don't think we have a chance in hell to get in if we drop the next 3. 17-15, a horrible OOC resume, several really bad losses and an RPI that is already bad and would be even more painful at 17-15. Let's hope to hell that it doesn't come to that. I know it seems odd to think that just a win over Tech will make that big a difference but I think it would. No team with 15 losses has EVER gotten an at large bid. 11 teams with 14 losses have gotten at large bids. Big difference.

 

[pearl31]

I don't think we have a chance in hell to get in if we drop the next 3. 17-15, a horrible OOC resume, several really bad losses and an RPI that is already bad and would be even more painful at 17-15. Let's hope to hell that it doesn't come to that. I know it seems odd to think that just a win over Tech will make that big a difference but I think it would. I think it was on the ESPN Bubble Watch that they said a team with 15 losses has NEVER gotten an at large bid but some with 14 have.

agreed on principle but those historical "never" references don't hold water IMO - this is only about the 4the year or so since the field expanded to 68, every year is different, there's nothing definitive about minimum RPI required or if that metric even factors in anymore, and the bubble is historically, er, lacking this year...
certainly it would be dicey at best if we finish 0-3 but "chance in hell" is overstating it