ND AD Says D1 Breakup is Inevitable

[NKR1978]

It will be determined by economics.
He is 100% correct. Also as much as ND loves its football program it will always put academics first as will every team in the Big. All Catholic, and other religious institutions ( BYU) the entite FCS and ill assume all private colleges and Universities. I hope that this happens sooner than later.
Let the SEC become the G league of football. Isolate the pay for play schools and get back to amateur athletics that focus on education.
Let kids make money off NIL but have the conferences hammer schools that use it to recruit. The issue isnt NIL its the lack of governance.
The NCAA and its total incompetence is to blame.
Schools that are like minded can self govern. Its going to take time and unfortunately for many on this board we will only witness the mess before this gets fixed but hopefully 20 years from now things will swing back.

Notre Dame put football above the life of the videographer that they killed so they wouldn't have to practice inside.

Gordon Gee, when he was the president of OSU, quipped that the B1G would soon have more money than God. That doesn't sound like a conference that puts academics first.

And this isn't even getting into the Nassar, Jim Jordan and Sandusky abuses.

 

[baggerbob]

Agree unions are coming. At least for the schools that opt for the pro model.

Those schools are going to have collectives run by powerful boosters that will usurp most of the donation money that now goes to athletic departments. They are going to run these programs and the ADs are going to be PR people.

If you had a great writer script how college athletics could get destroyed as quickly as possible, that writer would come up with what is happening now.

But if we are being honest with ourselves, college football has been broken for a long time. There are maybe 8 schools that can win the NC going into a given season. Talent is distributed incredibly badly (unless you are one of the 8 that have a chance).

When what 95% of the teams come into a season knowing they have absolutely no chance to win a NC, things are horribly broken.

Flush the 20 or 30 or 40 schools that are willing to spend unlimited money to try and win an NC out. Let them play amongst themselves.

I am sure they will get good ratings and an enormous amount of money from TV.

Hoping most of the P5 schools will choose to prioritize academics and keep a balance between that and athletics. I think there are enough schools to form some great leagues that offer very competitive sports, where the geography of members makes sense. Maybe some old rivalries can be restored and things will actually be significantly better for many of these schools.

Not even sure the pro schools will even care, as long as they get their money.

This could be good for most everyone.

The TV money will dry up, if only 30 to 40 teams are included, most people will decide not to watch. There are a lot of other things for people to do.

 

[kcsu]

Agree unions are coming. At least for the schools that opt for the pro model.

Those schools are going to have collectives run by powerful boosters that will usurp most of the donation money that now goes to athletic departments. They are going to run these programs and the ADs are going to be PR people.

If you had a great writer script how college athletics could get destroyed as quickly as possible, that writer would come up with what is happening now.

But if we are being honest with ourselves, college football has been broken for a long time. There are maybe 8 schools that can win the NC going into a given season. Talent is distributed incredibly badly (unless you are one of the 8 that have a chance).

When what 95% of the teams come into a season knowing they have absolutely no chance to win a NC, things are horribly broken.

Flush the 20 or 30 or 40 schools that are willing to spend unlimited money to try and win an NC out. Let them play amongst themselves.

I am sure they will get good ratings and an enormous amount of money from TV.

Hoping most of the P5 schools will choose to prioritize academics and keep a balance between that and athletics. I think there are enough schools to form some great leagues that offer very competitive sports, where the geography of members makes sense. Maybe some old rivalries can be restored and things will actually be significantly better for many of these schools.

Not even sure the pro schools will even care, as long as they get their money.

This could be good for most everyone.

Well put Tom. This will most likely be the end result unless there is intervention by congress

 

[David332]

Notre Dame put football above the life of the videographer that they killed so they wouldn't have to practice inside.

Gordon Gee, when he was the president of OSU, quipped that the B1G would soon have more money than God. That doesn't sound like a conference that puts academics first.

And this isn't even getting into the Nassar, Jim Jordan and Sandusky abuses.

I’m the last person in the world to ever want to even remotely defend ND, but was that the university’s decision to make that risk or Brian Kelly?

 

[dollarbill44]

I agree with this - except - If we’re still taking a giant paycheck to televise games and the labor is free, there will be a ruling at some point that will allow the players to unionize and demand a cut if the pie. A super league doesn’t stop that and I don’t see schools saying no to TV money.

I think the "giant" paycheck might not be so giant if this sort of schism occurs. The big bucks will follow the top league(s). I just hope the money that's left covers athletic expenses.

 

[TheCusian]

I think the "giant" paycheck might not be so giant if this sort of schism occurs. The big bucks will follow the top league(s). I just hope the money that's left covers athletic expenses.

Depends on the makeup of those leagues. There are a lot of time slots to fill - and money still flows to live sports. The eyeballs on Alabama vs LSU will always dwarf Syracuse vs Pitt - but not so much that it's not worth anything.

 

[TexanMark]

The greatest victories will be when teams like us beat teams like A&M, etc. on the field. It may not happen as frequently, but it will happen.

Assuming we get a chance to play them and their ilk in 10 years.

The system is spiraling out of control and is unsustainable. Schools can stop this if they want. Will they?

There will be a self correction but how much damage will be done before then.

NIL is a sham at this point. As some one has pointed out where are the TV commercials, product endorsements and such commensurate with with these deals?

Boosters are setting up slush funds to buy players now. I know it has happened at schools forever but it was somewhat in check and done in the shadows...now college is the NFL/NBA AAA. The unintended consequences will be part delicious and part sad and it is coming.

Those NIL cooperatives can setup a true league for 17-22 year olds that want to get paid and feed into the NFL and NBA. Totally independent of college. A "G League" of sorts...they can rent out local high school and college stadiums and play.

The rest can come to college with more sane rules.

 

[ForCuseSake]

I agree with this - except - If we’re still taking a giant paycheck to televise games and the labor is free, there will be a ruling at some point that will allow the players to unionize and demand a cut if the pie. A super league doesn’t stop that and I don’t see schools saying no to TV money.

Perhaps the schools who forego joining the super league (or don't make the cut) create a governing body that collectively bargained all broadcasting rights.

Maybe called something like "National Collegiate Athletic Association"...

And they'd negotiate with networks and streaming platforms on behalf of all sports across all conferences with the understanding that universities would share equally in broadcasting revenue.

Conferences can go back to being mostly regional affiliations. Game times might be less frequently held hostage by broadcast schedules (hello, streaming) and this could improve quality of life for student/athletes.

Of course this would mean that some of the more lucrative university brands would have to accept the broadcast revenue sharing concept at the expense of squeezing every last drop out of their ADs.

One can dream.

One thing I think will kill college athletics, at any level, is players forming a union. The regulations that will follow (health/safety, salary, taxes, etc.) will probably make university presidents/chancellors consider scrapping the whole AD.

Why waste university resources complying with hundreds of scholarship athletes at the expense of thousands of regular students.

As my favorite saying goes...

Pigs get fat; hogs get slaughtered.

 

[kcsu]

The schools will take care of this or they will end up killing the golden goose.

 

[MikeSU02]

Agree unions are coming. At least for the schools that opt for the pro model.

Those schools are going to have collectives run by powerful boosters that will usurp most of the donation money that now goes to athletic departments. They are going to run these programs and the ADs are going to be PR people.

If you had a great writer script how college athletics could get destroyed as quickly as possible, that writer would come up with what is happening now.

But if we are being honest with ourselves, college football has been broken for a long time. There are maybe 8 schools that can win the NC going into a given season. Talent is distributed incredibly badly (unless you are one of the 8 that have a chance).

When what 95% of the teams come into a season knowing they have absolutely no chance to win a NC, things are horribly broken.

Flush the 20 or 30 or 40 schools that are willing to spend unlimited money to try and win an NC out. Let them play amongst themselves.

I am sure they will get good ratings and an enormous amount of money from TV.

Hoping most of the P5 schools will choose to prioritize academics and keep a balance between that and athletics. I think there are enough schools to form some great leagues that offer very competitive sports, where the geography of members makes sense. Maybe some old rivalries can be restored and things will actually be significantly better for many of these schools.

Not even sure the pro schools will even care, as long as they get their money.

This could be good for most everyone.

Highlighted a part for one of my two points:

1) Like this post, especially the bolded part. Football, by its nature with the amount of people on a field at one time, on a roster and the total organizational support staff is predisposed to a small group of dominant teams that are willing to pony up money and basically do "whatever it takes" to get the talent. You are much less likely to get a mid-tier team in a title game or even competing.

2) Building off of that, football has become seemingly worse and exacerbated the issues while college bball, for all its faults (and it has a lot), has at least had some help in that the g-league created the Ignite team which is now pulling out at least 2-3 players per year that never would really want to be at school anyway (and more of those teams starting as well), the one year rule will likely be taken out of the next CBA and outside of Duke, there really isn't a single team that is just dominating recruiting.

Football just seems to be on such an island as it pertains to the rest of college athletics and the NCAA has done nothing to help right the ship. No vision, no real power, nothing to showcase any leadership, overall.

 

[texascpa]

I disagree with the premise the B1G is devoted to academics. NWern, 100% yes. Wisconsin, 90% probably yes. The others go down the percentages until you get to OthatSU which is at 0%. Michigan is one of USN&WR's top state schools, but they wouldn't have much of a problem with franchising the Michigan name. When (not "if") D-1 breaks up along the lines the ND AD mentions, the conferences will dissolve themselves and there will be another realignment along more regionally centered lines. ND will still go the independent route until it becomes no longer feasible. The breakup may make it even more feasible to be an independent.

The B1G requires AAU membership, correct? I would argue that alone indicates they value education over sports as a whole. Now, does that mean OSU or Michigan wouldn't break off and join a sports-first league? I don't know, but the AAU counts for something, doesn't it?

 

[texascpa]

What isn't true? If there are 50 teams with 100 man rosters all paying kids $400k, what happens to the kids that don't make those teams? They can choose to go to the non semi pro schools like SU and don't get paid, or they could go to Akron get paid $40k and play against the top kids in the nation.

Paying kids does not change the NCAA division dynamic. Currently, a kid isn't going to North Dakota State over playing for Minnesota. Why do you think so many schools keep jumping up to FBS? Having a semi pro division won't be different. If a school wants to join, what is to stop them from doing so?

That's $2B/year in total cost, not including taxes and benefits. Do you think they could get a TV contract/Revenue of $2B/year+ beyond what they currently get?

 

[syrBossHogg]

I just can’t get over how he and people like him in these positions can claim that they didn’t see this coming! We all saw this as the “levy break” moment. They all claim to be smart people and I assume they are. I can’t help but think this tearing apart is what they wanted.

They definitely saw this coming, they just wanted to pretend they didn't and try to save face

 

[TexanMark]

The B1G requires AAU membership, correct? I would argue that alone indicates they value education over sports as a whole. Now, does that mean OSU or Michigan wouldn't break off and join a sports-first league? I don't know, but the AAU counts for something, doesn't it?

Supposedly but Nebraska isn't AAU...and they would accept Notre Dame without it.

 

[longtimefan]

The B1G requires AAU membership, correct? I would argue that alone indicates they value education over sports as a whole. Now, does that mean OSU or Michigan wouldn't break off and join a sports-first league? I don't know, but the AAU counts for something, doesn't it?

The AAU affords its members much more revenue than any athletic department can.

 

[Hoo's That]

Wouldn’t ND naturally fit in the ACC more than the B1G? Small private school, focus on academics. Where’s the synergy with the B1G?

Yes, they are. Their alumni are concentrated in 3 areas, Chicago and the 2 seaboards, with the greatest number on the East Coast. They see themselves as an East Coast school that happens to be in the Midwest. By playing ACC schools, USC, and Stanford in football every year, there's a huge opportunity for the greatest number of their alums to see the team play. Plus, ND's Olympic Sports program is strong in the ones the ACC is strong nationally.

 

[Toga]

Agree unions are coming. At least for the schools that opt for the pro model.

Those schools are going to have collectives run by powerful boosters that will usurp most of the donation money that now goes to athletic departments. They are going to run these programs and the ADs are going to be PR people.

If you had a great writer script how college athletics could get destroyed as quickly as possible, that writer would come up with what is happening now.

But if we are being honest with ourselves, college football has been broken for a long time. There are maybe 8 schools that can win the NC going into a given season. Talent is distributed incredibly badly (unless you are one of the 8 that have a chance).

When what 95% of the teams come into a season knowing they have absolutely no chance to win a NC, things are horribly broken.

Flush the 20 or 30 or 40 schools that are willing to spend unlimited money to try and win an NC out. Let them play amongst themselves.

I am sure they will get good ratings and an enormous amount of money from TV.

Hoping most of the P5 schools will choose to prioritize academics and keep a balance between that and athletics. I think there are enough schools to form some great leagues that offer very competitive sports, where the geography of members makes sense. Maybe some old rivalries can be restored and things will actually be significantly better for many of these schools.

Not even sure the pro schools will even care, as long as they get their money.

This could be good for most everyone.

I think the unknown is how much viewership will be lost (and resulting TV $) with fans of non-semi-pro college teams tuning out the semi-pro teams.

 

[Hoo's That]

Perhaps the schools who forego joining the super league (or don't make the cut) create a governing body that collectively bargained all broadcasting rights.

Maybe called something like "National Collegiate Athletic Association"...

{snip}

That was the situation before the Supreme Court threw it out in 1984 in NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma because it violated the national antitrust acts. That gave the TV rights to each school and the schools then signed them over to the conferences. It's more than highly unlikely they'll ever give that up and go back to the way it was pre-1984.

 

[sutomcat]

I think the unknown is how much viewership will be lost (and resulting TV $) with fans of non-semi-pro college teams tuning out the semi-pro teams.

Agree. There will continue to be a lot of unintended and unexpected consequences of all the changes happening to college football.

I suspect there will be considerable backlash against the semi-pro football programs. Ratings will take a hit. Ratings for the college football conferences and games will probably also go down. Though I think attendance might go up with rivalries restored and more away fans traveling to watch games.

I will be interested to see if the college teams refuse to play the semi pro teams. In OOC games, in bowl games, in playoff games, etc.

Guessing the split will be so ugly that this will happen. But if the money is right, the college teams will probably still play the pros.

 

[Toga]

I assume players will be receiving 1099s.

 

[NKR1978]

I’m the last person in the world to ever want to even remotely defend ND, but was that the university’s decision to make that risk or Brian Kelly?

They chose to keep Brian Kelly despite the negligent homicide. I don't think that was because Kelly is a leader of men so much as he wins a lot of football games.

 

[Hoo's That]

The B1G requires AAU membership, correct? I would argue that alone indicates they value education over sports as a whole. Now, does that mean OSU or Michigan wouldn't break off and join a sports-first league? I don't know, but the AAU counts for something, doesn't it?

The AAU membership requirement is a façade. Nebraska was in the AAU when they were admitted and then was thrown out of the AAU with no action/reprisal/ultimatum by the B1G. When the semi-pro division is formed, the need for the academic façade disappears because those players won't be going to school. As I posted, NWern cares the most about academics, followed by Wisconsin. Illinois and Purdue are strong STEM schools, so they're probably #s 3 and 4., but after that it's anybody's guess

 

[ForCuseSake]

That was the situation before the Supreme Court threw it out in 1984 in NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma because it violated the national antitrust acts. That gave the TV rights to each school and the schools then signed them over to the conferences. It's more than highly unlikely they'll ever give that up and go back to the way it was pre-1984.

Hence, "One can dream."

 

[Hoo's That]

I assume players will be receiving 1099s.

The semi-pros probably will get W-2s. Right now, the money connected to the grant-in-aid (scholarship, room, board, books, and stipend) is not taxable. NIL money is fully taxable and the entity that pays the NIL money had better issue 1099s/W-2s to the recipients, who had better pay the taxes on it.

 

[kcsu]

The B1G requires AAU membership, correct? I would argue that alone indicates they value education over sports as a whole. Now, does that mean OSU or Michigan wouldn't break off and join a sports-first league? I don't know, but the AAU counts for something, doesn't it?

100x more than any revenue stream from sports