NET and KenPom Tracker 23-24 (SU = 84 3/9/24)

[CardiacCuse]

Completely agree, and perhaps unlike you, I see more upside in the offense. I think Mintz can play less selfishly, create more assists. I think it was a good teaching moment to sit him against BC for the first 9 minutes, and have us absolutely throttle BC early on, despite his absence.

The family drama on the board is not helpful, if you believe that family member is saying these same things to Judah, or if this reflects where Judah's head is at, well, we're right to engage in that discussion.

He is not indispensible to this team. This team relies on good defense, getting out in transition for easy scores, and moving the ball. We have 2 out of 3 of those right now; we have to improve our offensive sets, and create more motion, more screens, more easy shots. We have to move better without the ball.

Other than that, I feel like Autry is doing a great job. This is Judah's year; either he steps up and turns this into a Top 25 team by being more team focused; or he can go be somebody else's role player next year if he goes in the portal. The choice is his. This is his opportunity, whether he (or his family) sees it or not.

Judah does better in the draft by helping to make this team a very good team, a Top 25 team. This team could be very good, if people can keep working hard, and trusting each other, and have just a bit more on offense than they've shown so far.

i see a ton of upside in the offense. i feel the issues are scheme-related...more philosophical than anything. there is a lot of talent on the team, imo

Judah is enigmatic. I dont think he is a selfish person at all. I think he wants what is best for the team and cares about winning and his teammates etc...he's being asked to do a lot and does a lot. but there's a level of development he needs to reach that he hasnt yet.

i just dont think he is perfectly suited for the role he is needed to play. He's a scorer not an orchestrator. the team desperately needs a "quarterback" on the floor. Thats just not Judahs game. I predcit we will start to see Qaudir take over as PG. Judah also has some weird moments where it seems at times that he loses focus in games or somehow falls asleep etc and makes bad decisions...I dont know why that has been the case with him from day 1...could be attitude could just be youth idk...

im with you - more movement on offense...more passing more movement...screens off the ball etc

overall it is not the worst situation...a team cant win with defense unless it is buying in. so thats good.

can the offense be fix3d? not sure. the shooting has to improve. that isnt just scheme, though.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Santa Clara beats Gonzaga

 

[690West]

I don’t want to add more work to the amazing job that admins do here. And this may come across lazy, but it would be awesome if every so often the mods would put our current updated NET in parentheses at the end of the subject title of the thread.

 

[orange79]

I don’t want to add more work to the amazing job that admins do here. And this may come across lazy, but it would be awesome if every so often the mods would put our current updated NET in parentheses at the end of the subject title of the thread.

 

[orangefog]

View attachment 236409

Maybe it could be in red and bold or something?

 

[atlanticuse]

Maybe it could be in red and bold or something?

Like blood?

 

[orange79]

Maybe it could be in red and bold or something?

 

[690West]

View attachment 236409

My goodness. Best mods in America

 

[Cstate]

Oregon back to a Quad 2

 

[OrlandoCuse]

We’re so overdue to get some quad 1 wins

 

[jncuse]

Today's game results will not be good for the KP.
If it stays at the current score of losing by 35, my estimate is that our EM falls from +10.1 to about 8.8, a fall from 75 to 87.

I don't think the impact for NET would be as large as KP, since there are other factors beyond margin, but I don't have all the moving parts for that one. It will go down, but I doubt by 12 spots.

EDIT - I overshot EM actually fell from 10.1 to 9.3 (not 8.8), so ranking fell only to 81.
So don't expect our NET to really fall this much.

Ultimately "success" for our season isn't going to game from road games at Duke or UNC... but road games at Pitt, at NC St, at Wake.

 

[Cstate]

Dropping 5 spots after yesterday isn’t horrible. What is horrible is that our 5 Quad 1 loses are by an average of 22.8 points. On top of that, Oregon keeps dropping as well, as that was our potential Quad 1 win.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Dropping 5 spots after yesterday isn’t horrible. What is horrible is that our 5 Quad 1 loses are by an average of 22.8 points. On top of that, Oregon keeps dropping as well, as that was our potential Quad 1 win.

Oregon is vastly overrated. They were dreadful when we played them.

 

[NineOneSeven]

13 top 25 teams lose to unranked teams this week. Meanwhile we lost by like 200.

 

[Cstate]

Oregon is vastly overrated. They were dreadful when we played them.

Agree 100%

 

[orange79]

So, a quick update after last night's Pitt game.

Our NET ranking is now at 73 (we are a Quad 1 win for a team traveling to the Dome! ). Apropos of nothing, we also have an RPI of 13.

Our SOS is #5 in the country.

Sadly, beating Pitt at their place knocked them out of being a Q1 win for us (and also knocked our win at the Dome from a Q2 to a Q3). We taketh and we giveth away.

We now currently have no Q1 wins, but with Oregon at 51 NET ranking, them climbing to 50 or better will restore that Q1 win. As jncuse said above, the Pitt and Oregon wins should keep fluctuating as the season progresses.

One last thing to note - as of right now, all of our losses are to Q1 teams. This can mean a couple things:

1. We can't beat the higher-ranked teams (not good)
2. We have no Q2, Q3, or Q4 losses to date on our resume (good)

Carry on. LGO!!!

 

[atlanticuse]

Methinks we need a ACCT win against a good team to get into the NCAAT.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

So, a quick update after last night's Pitt game.

Our NET ranking is now at 73 (we are a Quad 1 win for a team traveling to the Dome! ). Apropos of nothing, we also have an RPI of 13.

Our SOS is #5 in the country.

Sadly, beating Pitt at their place knocked them out of being a Q1 win for us (and also knocked our win at the Dome from a Q2 to a Q3). We taketh and we giveth away.

We now currently have no Q1 wins, but with Oregon at 51 NET ranking, them climbing to 50 or better will restore that Q1 win. As jncuse said above, the Pitt and Oregon wins should keep fluctuating as the season progresses.

One last thing to note - as of right now, all of our losses are to Q1 teams. This can mean a couple things:

1. We can't beat the higher-ranked teams (not good)
2. We have no Q2, Q3, or Q4 losses to date on our resume (good)

Carry on. LGO!!!

The entire concept of one teams quality fluctuating like a stock based on events not involving them…is so blahhhhhh

 

[OptimusOtto]

I have a feeling NET looks at gross number for calc purposes, not the quad impact? I could be wrong but would seem weird to factor a win over a #1 ranked team on the road the same as a win over #75

I could be wrong but I’m pretty sure the committee groups quad 1 into two buckets: Quad 1A and 1B. Not sure the exact criteria but from a high level it seems like it’s basically trying to separate beating elite teams and what’s an analytics win.

 

[Sbucketball]

This is part of the problem of Cuse (and other ACC programs) starting out not great in NET - when we beat a decent team, they get dragged down in NET. And when we lose, it doesn't really increase a decent team's NET. This slowly causes NET degradation in the ACC.

 

[Ragman2000]

This is part of the problem of Cuse (and other ACC programs) starting out not great in NET - when we beat a decent team, they get dragged down in NET. And when we lose, it doesn't really increase a decent team's NET. This slowly causes NET degradation in the ACC.

So true. Take our win at Pitt as an example. We move up 7, Pitt moves down 12. An erosion of 5 for the ACC. The system is so dumb.

 

[CardiacCuse]

So true. Take our win at Pitt as an example. We move up 7, Pitt moves down 12. An erosion of 5 for the ACC. The system is so dumb.

yeah seems a bit of a "silo effect" in terms of a conference's NET

can only go down from when the conf schedule starts, no?

 

[jncuse]

The entire concept of one teams quality fluctuating like a stock based on events not involving them…is so blahhhhhh

The difference between #50-#55 on a ranking of 362 teams is very small. So teams are going to move 4 or 5 spots between games. Not sure why you would expect them to be static.

If a team a few spots behind us beats a quality team before we play next game, they shouldn't move forward? Our SOS element should change if our opponents play bad between our games.

These are all little things, but given that the gaps are so small between teams that are within 5 spots of each other, its going to cause fluidity of a handful of spots between each game/

It makes sense that there is some minor fluidity between games.

 

[jncuse]

This is part of the problem of Cuse (and other ACC programs) starting out not great in NET - when we beat a decent team, they get dragged down in NET. And when we lose, it doesn't really increase a decent team's NET. This slowly causes NET degradation in the ACC.

ACC is still #5 this year in terms of conference value based on OOC play (like last year), but the gap between them and #1, #2, #3 conferences is much smaller than last year. Conferences didn't dominate OOC play this year as much as the B12 and B10 in the 22/23 season. And we didn't suck nearly as bad. So the "boosting"/"degradation" factors will not be nearly as significant for us this year.

I do think for the ACC there will be some minor degradation but it will be minimized quite a bit this year due to the factors discussed above. This is also in part because the top 3 conferences aren't boosting themselves as much as prior years.

 

[5OutFred]

For all the complaints about the NET system, the results would be little to no different in the long-run. A win vs Pitt becomes less valuable the poorer Pitt is as a team, whether there's a Quad # next to it or not. Same goes with any team in the ACC.

Win the games you need and some you're not supposed to, and the numbers will always take care of themselves. No need to worry over the NET until at least February