SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
(Note: This covers the Cornell game.)
Mal Richardson had 20 net points in 32 minutes, has 78 NP in 360 minutes for the season = 8.7NP/40
Michael Gbinije had 16 net points in 39 minutes, has 198 NP in 413 minutes for the season = 19.2NP/40
Tyler Roberson had 18 net points in 33 minutes, has 105 NP in 341 minutes for the season = 12.3NP/40
Tyler Lydon had 12 net points in 32 minutes, has 168 NP in 357 minutes for the season = 18.8NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had 4 net points in 18 minutes, has 45 NP in 168 minutes for the season = -10.7NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had 3 net points in 7 minutes, has 9 NP in 83 minutes for the season = -4.3NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 1 net points in 34 minutes, has 97 NP in 416 minutes for the season = 9.3NP/40
DNP-CD
Franklin Howard had 0 net points in 0 minutes, has 5 NP in 61 minutes for the season = 3.3NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had 0 net points in 0 minutes, has 2 NP in 23 minutes for the season = 3.5NP/40
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: Pat has been advocating for Coleman, Roberson and Lydon to be in the game all at once. Per the above those guys with Gbinije and Cooney would be our lost productive line-up. Richardson would make an ideal sixth man- a guy who could be a guard or small forward and can score. The other guys have just not been significant contributors.
The Stats:
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 17 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. They had 9 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 17 of 35 times, (48.6%). When they missed, they got the ball 9 out of 40 times, (22.5%). It was our first really dominating performance on the boards this season. We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 4 times. For the year we’ve averaged getting 31.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 36.6% of theirs, still a wide discrepancy.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 17 second chance points off our 17 offensive rebounds, 1.000 points per rebound. They got 4 for their 9 = 0.444, the sixth straight game we’ve won or tied in this stat, (and 5 of them were wins) so we are taking better advantage of our second chances. For the year we’ve averaged 0.938 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.948. We’ve led in this stat 7 times.
Of our 13 turnovers, 9 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 12 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 6 games but fewer unforced turnovers in 3 games with 1 even. We’ve averaged 13 turnovers, 6 of which were unforced compared to 15 turnovers and 6 unforced for the opposition. It’s an important area as one of the ideas behind the zone is that we will make up for a rebounding deficit with a favorable turnover margin. Off these numbers we need to get within two rebounds of the other team to break even.
If you add our 48 rebounds to their 12 turnovers, we had 60 “manufactured possessions”. They had 27 + 13 = 40. We have won that battle 5 times with 1 even. But for the season we’ve averaged 51.5 MP to 51.3. We are normally well ahead of our early opponents in this stat.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 19 for 39, (.487) inside the arc, 7 for 21, (.333) outside it and 8 for 11, (.727) from the line. They were 11 for 29 (.379), 6/25 (.379) and 6/12 (.500). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 6 games, in three point field goals percentage in 7 games, and in free throw percentage in 6 games with 1 even. For the season we are .459/.366/.695. Our opposition is .435/.318/.667.
We had 34 points in the paint (PIP), 16 off turnovers (POTO), 17 “second chance” points (SCP), 10 fast break points (FBP) and 11 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 16 points in the paint, 5 off turnovers, 4 “second chance” points, 10 fast break points and 11 from the bench. We also had 32 of Pat’s “first chance points” (FCP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 32. It was our rebounding that really won the game.
We’ve led in PIP 6 times, POTO 8 times,(and the last 6 in a row), FCP 6 times with 2 even, SCP 3 times with 2 even, FBP 7 times, and BP 4 times with one even. For the season we are averaging 25-27 PIP, 16-12 POTO, 38-34 FCP, 11-14 SCP, 7-6 FBP and 13-17 BP.
We had 67 points,34 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 8 from the line so we had 25 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 67-34-8) and scored 4 points, (25 POP-21 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 46/16/18/6 = 78 POP with 6 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve led in POP 7 times. We’ve led in TZ points 5 times with 1 tie, but not in the last four games. For the year we are averaging 31 POP and 4 TZ, our opposition 24/4. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
13 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.500) and 10 of their 17 (.588). For the year we are assisting on 58.9% of our baskets to 63.7% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage 7 games with 1 even. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 17 OREBs + 13 TOs + (.475 x 11) = 61.225 possessions. They were 54 -9+ 12+ (.475 x 12) = 62.700 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 61possessions for us and 62 for them. There were 123 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 combined possessions per game this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 67 points in 61 possessions (1.098). They scored 46 points in 62 possessions (0.742). We have, of course, led 8 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.062 points per possession to 0.954 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for these games: 15-12, 15-14, 19-10, 18-10. For the season we have an average of 16-15, 16-14, 19-18, 21-16. We’ve won 24 of 44 quarters with 3 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 31 quarters and held the opposition under that 20 times. This was the first game this year where we have won all four quarters.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. Michael Gbinije was our ODOG in this game with a total of 12 points and 8 assists for 20 “hockey points. Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 10 times, Tyler Roberson 1 time.
I’ve thought of another stat to keep track of that also relates to individual offensive efficiency, although I’m sure there nothing all that new about it. I heard that Steph Curry had an amazing game in terms of the number of points he scored compared to the number of field goal attempts he had. I decided to compare the number of points scored to the number of shots taken, except I’ll include free throw attempts as they are shots, too. I originally thought of doing it on a percentage basis but a reserve who hit his only shot would out-rank a starter who scored 15 points on 10 shots. Instead I’ll keep track of the most points scored more than the number of shots- or the fewest points scored less than the number of shots if nobody has a positive number. I’ll call it “scoring efficiency”. In this game, Tyler Roberson scored 15 points on 10 field goal attempts and two free throw attempts, so he was +3. Michael Gbinije has led in this stat 5 times, Tyler Lydon and Tyler Roberson 3 times each and Kaleb Joseph once. Gbinije had the best game a +13 Charlotte on 26 points vs. 9 for 11 from the field and 2 for 2 from the foul line.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. In this tournament, these are the players who sat us down:
Vs. Cornell Dajuan Coleman dunk at 19:04 and Trevor Cooney trey at 19:02
The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 13 seconds. The longest time is 4:51 in the second half against Georgetown. Mali Richardson has sat us down 7 times, Michael Gbinije 6 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times, DaJuan Coleman 3 times and Tyler Roberson 2 times. We’ve been sat down by 11 treys 3 lay-ups, three 2 point jumpers and one dunk.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 70 points, (it used to be 75), so people can get free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. We didn’t make it to 70 in this game. Cooney has gotten us tacos three times, Gbinije twice and Coleman once. The average amount of time left in the game has been 4:19.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 39 two point shots to 29, scored 34 points in the paint to 16 and got fouled 14 times to 16, attempting 11 foul shots to 12. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.8 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.6 for us to 1.1 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 0.5 for us and 0.8 for them. This suggest the officiating was slanted towards Cornell but basically the refs let the kids play in this one and avoided blowing whistles at all so they weren’t that much of a factor in the game.
We are averaging 1.6 two point shots per foul, 1.2 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.1 foul shots per foul. They are averaging 2.2 two point shots per foul, 1.7 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.0 foul shots per foul. We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 9 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 9 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 7 games. So, numerically, the calls have seemed to favor us.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. For the fifth straight times it was Michael Gbinije and not Trevor Cooney, who had led in the first 6 games, with 39 minutes.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
(Note: This covers the Cornell game.)
Mal Richardson had 20 net points in 32 minutes, has 78 NP in 360 minutes for the season = 8.7NP/40
Michael Gbinije had 16 net points in 39 minutes, has 198 NP in 413 minutes for the season = 19.2NP/40
Tyler Roberson had 18 net points in 33 minutes, has 105 NP in 341 minutes for the season = 12.3NP/40
Tyler Lydon had 12 net points in 32 minutes, has 168 NP in 357 minutes for the season = 18.8NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had 4 net points in 18 minutes, has 45 NP in 168 minutes for the season = -10.7NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had 3 net points in 7 minutes, has 9 NP in 83 minutes for the season = -4.3NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 1 net points in 34 minutes, has 97 NP in 416 minutes for the season = 9.3NP/40
DNP-CD
Franklin Howard had 0 net points in 0 minutes, has 5 NP in 61 minutes for the season = 3.3NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had 0 net points in 0 minutes, has 2 NP in 23 minutes for the season = 3.5NP/40
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: Pat has been advocating for Coleman, Roberson and Lydon to be in the game all at once. Per the above those guys with Gbinije and Cooney would be our lost productive line-up. Richardson would make an ideal sixth man- a guy who could be a guard or small forward and can score. The other guys have just not been significant contributors.
The Stats:
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 17 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. They had 9 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 17 of 35 times, (48.6%). When they missed, they got the ball 9 out of 40 times, (22.5%). It was our first really dominating performance on the boards this season. We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 4 times. For the year we’ve averaged getting 31.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 36.6% of theirs, still a wide discrepancy.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 17 second chance points off our 17 offensive rebounds, 1.000 points per rebound. They got 4 for their 9 = 0.444, the sixth straight game we’ve won or tied in this stat, (and 5 of them were wins) so we are taking better advantage of our second chances. For the year we’ve averaged 0.938 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.948. We’ve led in this stat 7 times.
Of our 13 turnovers, 9 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 12 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 6 games but fewer unforced turnovers in 3 games with 1 even. We’ve averaged 13 turnovers, 6 of which were unforced compared to 15 turnovers and 6 unforced for the opposition. It’s an important area as one of the ideas behind the zone is that we will make up for a rebounding deficit with a favorable turnover margin. Off these numbers we need to get within two rebounds of the other team to break even.
If you add our 48 rebounds to their 12 turnovers, we had 60 “manufactured possessions”. They had 27 + 13 = 40. We have won that battle 5 times with 1 even. But for the season we’ve averaged 51.5 MP to 51.3. We are normally well ahead of our early opponents in this stat.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 19 for 39, (.487) inside the arc, 7 for 21, (.333) outside it and 8 for 11, (.727) from the line. They were 11 for 29 (.379), 6/25 (.379) and 6/12 (.500). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 6 games, in three point field goals percentage in 7 games, and in free throw percentage in 6 games with 1 even. For the season we are .459/.366/.695. Our opposition is .435/.318/.667.
We had 34 points in the paint (PIP), 16 off turnovers (POTO), 17 “second chance” points (SCP), 10 fast break points (FBP) and 11 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 16 points in the paint, 5 off turnovers, 4 “second chance” points, 10 fast break points and 11 from the bench. We also had 32 of Pat’s “first chance points” (FCP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 32. It was our rebounding that really won the game.
We’ve led in PIP 6 times, POTO 8 times,(and the last 6 in a row), FCP 6 times with 2 even, SCP 3 times with 2 even, FBP 7 times, and BP 4 times with one even. For the season we are averaging 25-27 PIP, 16-12 POTO, 38-34 FCP, 11-14 SCP, 7-6 FBP and 13-17 BP.
We had 67 points,34 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 8 from the line so we had 25 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 67-34-8) and scored 4 points, (25 POP-21 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 46/16/18/6 = 78 POP with 6 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve led in POP 7 times. We’ve led in TZ points 5 times with 1 tie, but not in the last four games. For the year we are averaging 31 POP and 4 TZ, our opposition 24/4. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
13 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.500) and 10 of their 17 (.588). For the year we are assisting on 58.9% of our baskets to 63.7% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage 7 games with 1 even. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 17 OREBs + 13 TOs + (.475 x 11) = 61.225 possessions. They were 54 -9+ 12+ (.475 x 12) = 62.700 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 61possessions for us and 62 for them. There were 123 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 combined possessions per game this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 67 points in 61 possessions (1.098). They scored 46 points in 62 possessions (0.742). We have, of course, led 8 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.062 points per possession to 0.954 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for these games: 15-12, 15-14, 19-10, 18-10. For the season we have an average of 16-15, 16-14, 19-18, 21-16. We’ve won 24 of 44 quarters with 3 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 31 quarters and held the opposition under that 20 times. This was the first game this year where we have won all four quarters.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. Michael Gbinije was our ODOG in this game with a total of 12 points and 8 assists for 20 “hockey points. Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 10 times, Tyler Roberson 1 time.
I’ve thought of another stat to keep track of that also relates to individual offensive efficiency, although I’m sure there nothing all that new about it. I heard that Steph Curry had an amazing game in terms of the number of points he scored compared to the number of field goal attempts he had. I decided to compare the number of points scored to the number of shots taken, except I’ll include free throw attempts as they are shots, too. I originally thought of doing it on a percentage basis but a reserve who hit his only shot would out-rank a starter who scored 15 points on 10 shots. Instead I’ll keep track of the most points scored more than the number of shots- or the fewest points scored less than the number of shots if nobody has a positive number. I’ll call it “scoring efficiency”. In this game, Tyler Roberson scored 15 points on 10 field goal attempts and two free throw attempts, so he was +3. Michael Gbinije has led in this stat 5 times, Tyler Lydon and Tyler Roberson 3 times each and Kaleb Joseph once. Gbinije had the best game a +13 Charlotte on 26 points vs. 9 for 11 from the field and 2 for 2 from the foul line.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. In this tournament, these are the players who sat us down:
Vs. Cornell Dajuan Coleman dunk at 19:04 and Trevor Cooney trey at 19:02
The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 13 seconds. The longest time is 4:51 in the second half against Georgetown. Mali Richardson has sat us down 7 times, Michael Gbinije 6 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times, DaJuan Coleman 3 times and Tyler Roberson 2 times. We’ve been sat down by 11 treys 3 lay-ups, three 2 point jumpers and one dunk.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 70 points, (it used to be 75), so people can get free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. We didn’t make it to 70 in this game. Cooney has gotten us tacos three times, Gbinije twice and Coleman once. The average amount of time left in the game has been 4:19.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 39 two point shots to 29, scored 34 points in the paint to 16 and got fouled 14 times to 16, attempting 11 foul shots to 12. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.8 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.6 for us to 1.1 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 0.5 for us and 0.8 for them. This suggest the officiating was slanted towards Cornell but basically the refs let the kids play in this one and avoided blowing whistles at all so they weren’t that much of a factor in the game.
We are averaging 1.6 two point shots per foul, 1.2 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.1 foul shots per foul. They are averaging 2.2 two point shots per foul, 1.7 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.0 foul shots per foul. We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 9 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 9 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 7 games. So, numerically, the calls have seemed to favor us.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. For the fifth straight times it was Michael Gbinije and not Trevor Cooney, who had led in the first 6 games, with 39 minutes.
