SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 31NP in 27 minutes season: 113NP in 170 minutes per 40: 26.6
Chris McCullough.. 20NP in 35 minutes season: 108NP in 197 minutes per 40: 21.9
B. J. Johnson……….. 7NP in 30 minutes season: 54NP in 126 minutes per 40: 17.1
Kaleb Joseph……….. 18NP in 35 minutes season: 54NP in 197 minutes per 40: 11.0
Chinoso Obokoh….. 3NP in 18 minutes season: 14NP in 30 minutes per 40: 18.7
Trevor Cooney…… 1NP in 31 minutes season: 47NP in 199 minutes per 40: 9.4
Michael Gbinije….. 0NP in 23 minutes season: 17NP in 127 minutes per 40: 5.4
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 7 minutes season: 5NP in 61 minutes per 40: 3.3
DNP-CD- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 25NP in 83 minutes per 40: 12.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: I’ve updated the numbers not just for the Holy Cross game but by checking them against the totals on the SU Athletic site, so they are a bit different from last time in some cases. Christmas, McCuillough have nice numbers but now we’ll get to see how they hold up against really good teams. We’ll see the same about Johnson as long as Roberson isn’t available. Obokoh’s numbers will change if we have to use him and with Christmas’ penchant for fouling, we might have to, even though he’s essentially third string. McCullough can’t take on the other team’s big men by himself. McCullough has led in net points three times, Christmas twice and Johnson once.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 15 offensive and 35 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 15 of 33 times, (45.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 46 times (23.9%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure in every game except Iowa. We’ve averaged getting 38.8% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 25.7% of theirs.
Of our 15 turnovers, 10 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers than every opponent except Holy Cross. We are averaging 12 turnovers, 6 unforced. Our opposition is averaging 17/7.5.
If you add our 50 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 63 “manufactured possessions”. They had 29 + 15= 44, so we were +19. We haven’t lost that battle this season. For the season we’ve averaged 60 to 45 (+15).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 26 for 42, (.619) inside the arc, 0 for 14, (.000) outside it and 20 for 25 (.800) from the line. They were 12 for 40 (.300), 3/16 (.188) and 15/21 (.714).We’ve led in two point field goal percentage and free throw percentage in 5 of 6 games. We led in three point field goals percentage in the first two games but not in any since, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .524/.198/.669. Our opposition is .385/.278/.626.
We had 42 points in the paint, 17 off turnovers, 18 “second chance” points, 16 fast break points and 8 from the bench. Our opposition had 16 points in the paint, 15 off turnovers, 4 “second chance” points, 4 fast break points and 8 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 4 times, POTO 6 times, SCP 4 times, FBP 4 times and BP 4 times. For the season we are averaging 36-19 PIP, 19-10 POTO, 14-8 SCP, 13-7 FBP and 12-9 BP.
We had 72 points, 42 in the paint, 0 from the arc and 20 from the line so we had 10”POP”, (points outside the paint: 72-42-20) and scored 10 points, (10 POP- 0 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 48/16/9/15= 17 POP and 8 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP twice but we’ve led in Twlight Zone points in every game. For the year we are averaging 20 POP and 11 TZ, our opposition 23/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
11 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.423) and 9 of their 15 (.600). For the year we are assisting on 58.2% of our baskets to 66.4% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 5 of 6 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 56 FGA - 15 OREBs + 15 TOs + (.475 x 25) = 67.875 possessions. They were 56 -11+ 13+ (.475 x 21) = 67.975 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions in which we scored 72 points, (1.059) and 68 possessions in which they scored 48 points, (0.706). We have, of course, led 5 of 6 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the eyar we are averaging 1.029 points per possession to 0.762 for the opposition.
We had 136 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 136 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year. We’ll see if that holds up as the season goes along and the opposition gets tougher.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Rakeem Christmas scored 25 points and had 2 assists for 27 “hockey points”. He is our O-Dog for this game. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog three times, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 12-9, 27-8, 13-20, 20-11. For the season, we’ve totaled 87-59, 109-68, 100-87, 122-84 an average of 14.5-10, 18-11, 17-14.5 20-14. We’ve won 18 of 24 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 16 quarters and held the opposition under that 16 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Rakeem Christmas sat us down both times, with a jumper at 17:28 of the first half and a dunk at 18:25 of the second half. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 24 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds iin the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 6 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 3 times.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 42 two point shots to 40, scored 42 points in the paint to 16 and got fouled 19 times to 15, attempting 25 foul shots to 21. That’s not way off. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. This year we have taken 269 two point shots and scored 202 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 111 times and taken 127 free throws. Our opposition has taken 202 two point shots and scored 116 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 89 times and taken only 91 free throws. That seems fairly balanced, overall.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, we had two “men” for the first time this season. Michael Gbinije and Chris McCullough both played 35 minutes. Chris McCullough has been the “Man” three times, and Trevor Cooney twice each and Kaleb Joseph once. Cooney has played the most minutes (199) for the season. JB likes the fact that the opposition always has to have one guy chasing him the whole game- one guy who can’t help guard anyone else.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 31NP in 27 minutes season: 113NP in 170 minutes per 40: 26.6
Chris McCullough.. 20NP in 35 minutes season: 108NP in 197 minutes per 40: 21.9
B. J. Johnson……….. 7NP in 30 minutes season: 54NP in 126 minutes per 40: 17.1
Kaleb Joseph……….. 18NP in 35 minutes season: 54NP in 197 minutes per 40: 11.0
Chinoso Obokoh….. 3NP in 18 minutes season: 14NP in 30 minutes per 40: 18.7
Trevor Cooney…… 1NP in 31 minutes season: 47NP in 199 minutes per 40: 9.4
Michael Gbinije….. 0NP in 23 minutes season: 17NP in 127 minutes per 40: 5.4
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 7 minutes season: 5NP in 61 minutes per 40: 3.3
DNP-CD- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 25NP in 83 minutes per 40: 12.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: I’ve updated the numbers not just for the Holy Cross game but by checking them against the totals on the SU Athletic site, so they are a bit different from last time in some cases. Christmas, McCuillough have nice numbers but now we’ll get to see how they hold up against really good teams. We’ll see the same about Johnson as long as Roberson isn’t available. Obokoh’s numbers will change if we have to use him and with Christmas’ penchant for fouling, we might have to, even though he’s essentially third string. McCullough can’t take on the other team’s big men by himself. McCullough has led in net points three times, Christmas twice and Johnson once.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 15 offensive and 35 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 15 of 33 times, (45.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 46 times (23.9%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure in every game except Iowa. We’ve averaged getting 38.8% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 25.7% of theirs.
Of our 15 turnovers, 10 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers than every opponent except Holy Cross. We are averaging 12 turnovers, 6 unforced. Our opposition is averaging 17/7.5.
If you add our 50 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 63 “manufactured possessions”. They had 29 + 15= 44, so we were +19. We haven’t lost that battle this season. For the season we’ve averaged 60 to 45 (+15).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 26 for 42, (.619) inside the arc, 0 for 14, (.000) outside it and 20 for 25 (.800) from the line. They were 12 for 40 (.300), 3/16 (.188) and 15/21 (.714).We’ve led in two point field goal percentage and free throw percentage in 5 of 6 games. We led in three point field goals percentage in the first two games but not in any since, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .524/.198/.669. Our opposition is .385/.278/.626.
We had 42 points in the paint, 17 off turnovers, 18 “second chance” points, 16 fast break points and 8 from the bench. Our opposition had 16 points in the paint, 15 off turnovers, 4 “second chance” points, 4 fast break points and 8 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 4 times, POTO 6 times, SCP 4 times, FBP 4 times and BP 4 times. For the season we are averaging 36-19 PIP, 19-10 POTO, 14-8 SCP, 13-7 FBP and 12-9 BP.
We had 72 points, 42 in the paint, 0 from the arc and 20 from the line so we had 10”POP”, (points outside the paint: 72-42-20) and scored 10 points, (10 POP- 0 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 48/16/9/15= 17 POP and 8 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP twice but we’ve led in Twlight Zone points in every game. For the year we are averaging 20 POP and 11 TZ, our opposition 23/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
11 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.423) and 9 of their 15 (.600). For the year we are assisting on 58.2% of our baskets to 66.4% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 5 of 6 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 56 FGA - 15 OREBs + 15 TOs + (.475 x 25) = 67.875 possessions. They were 56 -11+ 13+ (.475 x 21) = 67.975 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions in which we scored 72 points, (1.059) and 68 possessions in which they scored 48 points, (0.706). We have, of course, led 5 of 6 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the eyar we are averaging 1.029 points per possession to 0.762 for the opposition.
We had 136 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 136 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year. We’ll see if that holds up as the season goes along and the opposition gets tougher.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Rakeem Christmas scored 25 points and had 2 assists for 27 “hockey points”. He is our O-Dog for this game. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog three times, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 12-9, 27-8, 13-20, 20-11. For the season, we’ve totaled 87-59, 109-68, 100-87, 122-84 an average of 14.5-10, 18-11, 17-14.5 20-14. We’ve won 18 of 24 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 16 quarters and held the opposition under that 16 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Rakeem Christmas sat us down both times, with a jumper at 17:28 of the first half and a dunk at 18:25 of the second half. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 24 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds iin the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 6 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 3 times.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 42 two point shots to 40, scored 42 points in the paint to 16 and got fouled 19 times to 15, attempting 25 foul shots to 21. That’s not way off. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. This year we have taken 269 two point shots and scored 202 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 111 times and taken 127 free throws. Our opposition has taken 202 two point shots and scored 116 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 89 times and taken only 91 free throws. That seems fairly balanced, overall.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, we had two “men” for the first time this season. Michael Gbinije and Chris McCullough both played 35 minutes. Chris McCullough has been the “Man” three times, and Trevor Cooney twice each and Kaleb Joseph once. Cooney has played the most minutes (199) for the season. JB likes the fact that the opposition always has to have one guy chasing him the whole game- one guy who can’t help guard anyone else.
