SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
C. J. Fair………………. 25NP in 40 minutes season: 360NP in 1133 minutes per 40: 12.7
Rakeem Christmas 16NP in 24 minutes season: 242NP in 698 minutes per 40: 13.9
Jerami Grant……….. 15NP in 35 minutes season: 346NP in 902 minutes per 40: 15.3
Tyler Ennis………….. 13NP in 40 minutes season: 383NP in 1060 minutes per 40: 14.5
Baye Moussa Keita 2NP in 16 minutes season: 92NP in 459 minutes per 40: 8.0
Trevor Cooney…… 2NP in 36 minutes season: 305NP in 1011 minutes per 40: 12.1
Michael Gbinije …. -1NP in 9 minutes season: 94NP in 449 minutes per 40: 8.4
DNP
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 27NP in 153 minutes per 40: 7.1
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.4
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: Our top four guys in the “net points” ranking in this game had their season’s average change by a total of 0.1 points. They weren’t playing above their heads: they were playing up to their proven capabilities. And they tore Florida State to pieces. Now if we can get Trevor Cooney to hit a reasonable percentage of his shots, we will be tough for anybody to beat.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 12 times. CJ Fair has led 7 times, Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas 5 times, Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each. CJ had been tied with Trevor Cooney and Rakeem Christmas before last night. Think about that.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 17 offensive and 26 defensive rebounds. They had 8 offensive and 16 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 17 of 33 times, (51.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 8 of 34 times (23.5%). It was our best offensive rebounding performance since Virginia Tech and the greatest positive differential between the two since Colgate.
We’ve averaged getting 38.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.8% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 22 times in 31 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 5 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 11 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 2 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 27 of 31 games, (and won 27 of 31 games), with two even. Overall we are ahead by 141 turnovers on the season, (278-419) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (145-168). We have had single digit turnovers in 14 of 18 ACC games and no more than 12 of them in any conference game. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 43 rebounds to their 11 turnovers, we had 54 “manufactured possessions”. They had 24 + 12= 36, so we were +18. We’ve won that battle 26 times this season in 31 games, with an average margin of +8.2. We’ve won by double figures 14 times. It’s a big reason we are 27-4.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 24 for 45, (.533) inside the arc, 5 for 15, (.333) outside it and 11 for 15 (.733) from the line. They were 15 for 36 (.417), 4/14 (.286) and 16/20 (.800). It was the first time we’d shot 50% from inside the arc since the first Duke game, 37 days and 11 games ago.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .478/.338/.699, the opposition .453/.343/.667. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 32 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .478-.453 = +25. If we’d have shot .571 inside the arc this year, (and the 2010 team did), we’d have scored 230 more points, 7 more per game. That would have made this year’s games a little easier to take.
We had 74 points, 32 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 11 from the line so we scored 16 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 58-24-12-16= 6 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 31 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 18 for them. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
10 of our 29 baskets were assisted (.345) and 7 of their 19 (.368). For the year we are assisting on 49.6% of our baskets to 63.9% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 27 of 31 games, and we’ve won 27 of 31 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 17 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 15) = 62.125 possessions. They were 50 -8 + 11+ (.475 x 20) = 62.5 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 62 possessions in which we scored 74 points, (1.194) and 63 possessions in which they scored 58 points, (0.921). As Virginia proved earlier, scoring is not all about pace. If you are efficient, you can still score a reasonable number of points, even in these slowly paced games. We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 125.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 14-13, 19-14, 20-19, 21-12. The average for the season is: 16-14, 18-14, 17-16, 19-16. We’ve won 75 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 42 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 79 of 123 quarters and held the opposition under that 64 times. This was the first game in which we’ve won all four quarters since the Colgate game.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game CJ Fair had 22 points and 2 assists for 24 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 13 times and CJ Fair has done it 12 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Rakeem Christmas did it in the first half with a lay-up 50 seconds in, (his only field goal of the game). CJ Fair did it in the second half with a jump shot only 56 seconds in. It was the first time since the second Duke game that we got “sat down” in the first minute of each half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 20 times, Rakeem Christmas 11 times, Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney 10 times, and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt) and Michael Gbinije once.
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. 5:42 first half vs. Boston College. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half),2:07 vs. Virginia (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:44 vs. Georgia Tech (first half) 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half), 1:17 vs. Maryland (second half), 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half) and 1:11 vs. Maryland, (first half)
Fouls
We were charged with 16 fouls to 14 for them. We attempted 15 fouls shots to 20 for them. We had 32 points in the paint to 24 for them. We attempted 45 two point shots to 36 for them. So the foul disparity doesn’t seem as “out of whack” as it did in the Duke and Maryland games when Syracuse had a total of 44 PIP to 38 and attempted 94 two point shots to 45 but got called for 39 fouls to 28 and went to the line 20 times to 52.
On the season we have attempted 1246 two point shots to 896 for the opposition and scored 938 PIP to 681. We’ve committed 492 fouls to 549 and gone to the line 660 to 548 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. In this game we had more two point shots and points in the paint but committed more fouls and sent them to the line more times. But it wasn’t a huge discrepancy.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
C. J. Fair………………. 25NP in 40 minutes season: 360NP in 1133 minutes per 40: 12.7
Rakeem Christmas 16NP in 24 minutes season: 242NP in 698 minutes per 40: 13.9
Jerami Grant……….. 15NP in 35 minutes season: 346NP in 902 minutes per 40: 15.3
Tyler Ennis………….. 13NP in 40 minutes season: 383NP in 1060 minutes per 40: 14.5
Baye Moussa Keita 2NP in 16 minutes season: 92NP in 459 minutes per 40: 8.0
Trevor Cooney…… 2NP in 36 minutes season: 305NP in 1011 minutes per 40: 12.1
Michael Gbinije …. -1NP in 9 minutes season: 94NP in 449 minutes per 40: 8.4
DNP
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 27NP in 153 minutes per 40: 7.1
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.4
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: Our top four guys in the “net points” ranking in this game had their season’s average change by a total of 0.1 points. They weren’t playing above their heads: they were playing up to their proven capabilities. And they tore Florida State to pieces. Now if we can get Trevor Cooney to hit a reasonable percentage of his shots, we will be tough for anybody to beat.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 12 times. CJ Fair has led 7 times, Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas 5 times, Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each. CJ had been tied with Trevor Cooney and Rakeem Christmas before last night. Think about that.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 17 offensive and 26 defensive rebounds. They had 8 offensive and 16 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 17 of 33 times, (51.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 8 of 34 times (23.5%). It was our best offensive rebounding performance since Virginia Tech and the greatest positive differential between the two since Colgate.
We’ve averaged getting 38.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.8% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 22 times in 31 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 5 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 11 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 2 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 27 of 31 games, (and won 27 of 31 games), with two even. Overall we are ahead by 141 turnovers on the season, (278-419) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (145-168). We have had single digit turnovers in 14 of 18 ACC games and no more than 12 of them in any conference game. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 43 rebounds to their 11 turnovers, we had 54 “manufactured possessions”. They had 24 + 12= 36, so we were +18. We’ve won that battle 26 times this season in 31 games, with an average margin of +8.2. We’ve won by double figures 14 times. It’s a big reason we are 27-4.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 24 for 45, (.533) inside the arc, 5 for 15, (.333) outside it and 11 for 15 (.733) from the line. They were 15 for 36 (.417), 4/14 (.286) and 16/20 (.800). It was the first time we’d shot 50% from inside the arc since the first Duke game, 37 days and 11 games ago.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .478/.338/.699, the opposition .453/.343/.667. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 32 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .478-.453 = +25. If we’d have shot .571 inside the arc this year, (and the 2010 team did), we’d have scored 230 more points, 7 more per game. That would have made this year’s games a little easier to take.
We had 74 points, 32 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 11 from the line so we scored 16 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 58-24-12-16= 6 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 31 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 18 for them. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
10 of our 29 baskets were assisted (.345) and 7 of their 19 (.368). For the year we are assisting on 49.6% of our baskets to 63.9% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 27 of 31 games, and we’ve won 27 of 31 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 17 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 15) = 62.125 possessions. They were 50 -8 + 11+ (.475 x 20) = 62.5 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 62 possessions in which we scored 74 points, (1.194) and 63 possessions in which they scored 58 points, (0.921). As Virginia proved earlier, scoring is not all about pace. If you are efficient, you can still score a reasonable number of points, even in these slowly paced games. We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 125.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 14-13, 19-14, 20-19, 21-12. The average for the season is: 16-14, 18-14, 17-16, 19-16. We’ve won 75 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 42 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 79 of 123 quarters and held the opposition under that 64 times. This was the first game in which we’ve won all four quarters since the Colgate game.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game CJ Fair had 22 points and 2 assists for 24 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 13 times and CJ Fair has done it 12 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Rakeem Christmas did it in the first half with a lay-up 50 seconds in, (his only field goal of the game). CJ Fair did it in the second half with a jump shot only 56 seconds in. It was the first time since the second Duke game that we got “sat down” in the first minute of each half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 20 times, Rakeem Christmas 11 times, Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney 10 times, and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt) and Michael Gbinije once.
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. 5:42 first half vs. Boston College. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half),2:07 vs. Virginia (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:44 vs. Georgia Tech (first half) 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half), 1:17 vs. Maryland (second half), 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half) and 1:11 vs. Maryland, (first half)
Fouls
We were charged with 16 fouls to 14 for them. We attempted 15 fouls shots to 20 for them. We had 32 points in the paint to 24 for them. We attempted 45 two point shots to 36 for them. So the foul disparity doesn’t seem as “out of whack” as it did in the Duke and Maryland games when Syracuse had a total of 44 PIP to 38 and attempted 94 two point shots to 45 but got called for 39 fouls to 28 and went to the line 20 times to 52.
On the season we have attempted 1246 two point shots to 896 for the opposition and scored 938 PIP to 681. We’ve committed 492 fouls to 549 and gone to the line 660 to 548 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. In this game we had more two point shots and points in the paint but committed more fouls and sent them to the line more times. But it wasn’t a huge discrepancy.