Nit/Ncaa chances | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

Nit/Ncaa chances

I wanted to add that we do have what should be an advantage going into the ACC tourney. Cuse has a week to rest up and practice since our bye is that final weekend of the regular season.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
 
Win out? This is the Syracuse board right? All of you have watched this season right? I'm just thankful we can even entertain this conversation right now. Despite what our NET is, I think we are closer to the bubble than many think. Still not there but better than a mid 80s ranking would lead you to believe.
 
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
If they can stay locked in and embrace this opportunity that they should be going into this tournament as the most well rested team then yes! It’s tricky though because sometimes too much rest can affect a team’s rhythm and come out flat in the first game.
 
I think winning out is a daydream nightmare. SU already lost to Clemson and beat Louisville by 2 at home. Win both on the road? Ain't happening. Win 1 lose 1 rotation doesn't bode will for Sat either. Winning 3 of 4 and then round 1 of ACCT, then hopefully an NIT bide and that will probably be on the road.

The Ville is garbage and while they fought for a while they look toast now. Go take care of business in front of their 500 fans still coming to games. Clemson is the big one should we get to where it matters which starts Saturday.
 
Many of the posters here talk about winning 3, 4, 5 games in a row! But as I look back over the past several weeks, we tend to win one then lose one, then repeat. For nearly the entire season we are never sure what team will show up. If we are going to surprise some people, we need to quickly develop some consistency. Not impossible but it will be a real up hill challenge for our streaky shooting and weak rebounding team. After saying all of that, I still want to run the table!! LGO
All teams that are not top teams do this. For the most part we will win games at home and then lose games on the road. Good teams lose on the road too . Really good teams are able to win more of those on the road. The main problem with our resume is the losses where we got killed. Absolutely destroys our NET. Some of those big losses were at the beginning of the season and we were still growing. Also probably because we have some deficiencies on the roster and we also maybe didn't adjust like we should have. We have a young team.

These two NET Resumes below are pretty much exactly the same in comparison. Honestly looking at all the stats i'd say the SOS was the same but VT has one more loss than us so maybe we are better. The one area these teams must not be the same is margin of victory in some games which is not a data point in the columns. Margin of victory shouldn't matter as much as it does but it is what it is with the NET. Really is margin of victory worth 32 spots?

Screenshot 2024-02-21 130947.jpg
 
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Which is unfortunate, especially with such a young team. I know Maui was baked in years ahead of time; I think Red will structure the schedule accordingly to suit his teams in the future.

If our efficiency numbers weren’t so bad this years schedule would look smart to be fair. Maui was absurd and we didn’t get a shot at the weakest non Chaminade team. LSU and Gtown just sucked.
 
remember when "the last 10 games" was a metric used to justify teams getting in? Usually those teams did fairly well in the NCAA's too. I think bringing that narrative back as well as maybe using a sliding scale of efficiencies where if you blow out bad Q3/4 teams (which is more likely than not) you don't get as much credit as if you blow out a Q1 opponent.
 
remember when "the last 10 games" was a metric used to justify teams getting in? Usually those teams did fairly well in the NCAA's too. I think bringing that narrative back as well as maybe using a sliding scale of efficiencies where if you blow out bad Q3/4 teams (which is more likely than not) you don't get as much credit as if you blow out a Q1 opponent.
Agreed. Also helped teams who had a star out early and lost games they shouldn’t have.
 
remember when "the last 10 games" was a metric used to justify teams getting in? Usually those teams did fairly well in the NCAA's too. I think bringing that narrative back as well as maybe using a sliding scale of efficiencies where if you blow out bad Q3/4 teams (which is more likely than not) you don't get as much credit as if you blow out a Q1 opponent.
The issue with this is schedules are unbalanced. Hard to compare schedules against when each school only a couple teams twice and the best teams at different points of the season. It was why they got rid of it in the first place. In the old BE days it worked because you played everyone twice.
 
I wanted to add that we do have what should be an advantage going into the ACC tourney. Cuse has a week to rest up and practice since our bye is that final weekend of the regular season.

That seems so odd, having our last game a week before the ACCT. Is this something that happens yearly for an"odd man out" ACC team? Has it happened to us before? It's strange not to have every team playing the final weekend
 
The win at the Wolfpack moved us from 90 to 84 in NET and we are also 84 in KenPom

I did some calculations, and I think we are right at the edge of the NIT bubble… The NIT bubble basically starts at about number 84 or 85 and goes up to 45

I think we need to get to 20 wins to secure the NIT bid…. Either win 3 of the last 4…. or win 2 of the last 4 and then get 1 at ACC…. that would put us in for sure

Aside from that keep dreaming. This is reality.
The number of wins is not a benchmark for getting into the NCAA Tournament. The NET is based around the quality of the teams you play and the stature of the teams you beat. Right now SU has only defeated one opponent who would be in the NCAAs if Selection Sunday was this weekend. Although Cornell and Colgate could win their conference tournaments, Carolina is our only victory over an opponent that will definitely be in the Big Dance.

If this was the 1980s and a school in the Big East won 20 games or won half of its conference games, they would probably be a lock for a bid once the tournament expanded to the 64-team format in 1985. But we are in a conference with fifteen members that doesn't feature many top flight teams and the overall mediocrity of the league could result in only four ACC schools making in the NCAAs.

Beating Notre Dame at home isn't going to move the needle on SU's NET ranking and a win at Louisville is comparable to our road victory at Georgetown. Virginia Tech and Clemson currently are higher in the NET than anyone other than UNC that we have beaten and a win in either of those games would probably lock us down for a NIT invite. I agree with Marsh that three more wins will guarantee Syracuse a bid to the NIT.
 
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That seems so odd, having our last game a week before the ACCT. Is this something that happens yearly for an"odd man out" ACC team? Has it happened to us before? It's strange not to have every team playing the final weekend
The ACC has fifteen basketball members so one school is idle for league games played during the week or on the weekend throughout the season.
 
The win at the Wolfpack moved us from 90 to 84 in NET and we are also 84 in KenPom

I did some calculations, and I think we are right at the edge of the NIT bubble… The NIT bubble basically starts at about number 84 or 85 and goes up to 45

I think we need to get to 20 wins to secure the NIT bid…. Either win 3 of the last 4…. or win 2 of the last 4 and then get 1 at ACC…. that would put us in for sure


The only way we make the ncaa is winning out in the regular season and making it to the conf champ game.

Aside from that keep dreaming. This is reality
Win the next four we are on the bubble.. follow that up with 1 one in the acc tournament and we are in the ncaa
 
Win the next four we are on the bubble.. follow that up with 1 one in the acc tournament and we are in the ncaa
I completely agree with winning four puts us on or near the bubble. I still think we could win 3 of the next 4, followed by two wins in the acc tournament and be in the conversation. It will obviously come down to what other bubble teams are doing to close the season.
 
So basically 50/50 if we make the real dance. This is gonna be exciting to watch unfold.
 
with this team we could go 4-0, or 0-4 or any combination. I think a loss to the ville or ND basically eliminates us from dreaming. Losing to one of Clemson or VT keeps status quo, but most likely will need a deep run in the ACC tourny. If we go 4-0, and get a win in the ACC tourny we are right in the bubble mix, get to the semis and we're probably a 10/11 seed.
 
with this team we could go 4-0, or 0-4 or any combination. I think a loss to the ville or ND basically eliminates us from dreaming. Losing to one of Clemson or VT keeps status quo, but most likely will need a deep run in the ACC tourny. If we go 4-0, and get a win in the ACC tourny we are right in the bubble mix, get to the semis and we're probably a 10/11 seed.

The first 3 of the last 4 are certainly winnable... the last game @ Clemson is going to be a tough one.

We'll likely need to get into the quarters of the AAC tournament at minimum.

I hope we wreck Pitt again, steal a last 4 in spot, and boot them as out.

These are the dreams I have...
 
Win the next four we are on the bubble.. follow that up with 1 one in the acc tournament and we are in the ncaa
No way. If we win next 4 we are probably a 5 seed in the acc tournament. That means our 1 win in acc tournament would probably be BC,GT or ND. That one extra win would mean nothing. I honestly think 4-0 and then min 2 games to be considered. Winning 3 games we are in ( 4 is auto bid) .
Legit need to win 7 in a row to be considered.
 

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