Nit/Ncaa chances

[Marsh01]

The win at the Wolfpack moved us from 90 to 84 in NET and we are also 84 in KenPom

I did some calculations, and I think we are right at the edge of the NIT bubble… The NIT bubble basically starts at about number 84 or 85 and goes up to 45

I think we need to get to 20 wins to secure the NIT bid…. Either win 3 of the last 4…. or win 2 of the last 4 and then get 1 at ACC…. that would put us in for sure


The only way we make the ncaa is winning out in the regular season and making it to the conf champ game.

Aside from that keep dreaming. This is reality

 

[elimunelson]

The win at the Wolfpack moved us from 90 to 84 in NET and we are also 84 in KenPom

I did some calculations, and I think we are right at the edge of the NIT bubble… The NIT bubble basically starts at about number 84 or 85 and goes up to 45

I think we need to get to 20 wins to secure the NIT bid…. Either win 3 of the last 4…. or win 2 of the last 4 and then get 1 at ACC…. that would put us in for sure


The only way we make the ncaa is winning out in the regular season and making it to the conf champ game.

Aside from that keep dreaming. This is reality

what if we lose out and win the ACCT? We get into the NCAA that way too.

I think there's a few other pathways to the NCAA. I think the variable of everyone holding serve above us is probably foolish. The parity w the other ACC teams not named Duke/UNC is glaring. We are in the Pitt/WF grouping. A few of those teams may distance themselves with a nice run and others will flame out

Alot of basketball left in a season of mediocrity

 

[upperdeck]

the conf has 7 teams basically tied. of those 7 we will beaten 2 of them twice and those 2 are ahead of us in the metrics. In theory we might beat Pitt a 3rd time and still have them get in ahead of us with a better record, ahead of them in the ACC, and 3 wins.

 

[jdubs30]

The win at the Wolfpack moved us from 90 to 84 in NET and we are also 84 in KenPom

I did some calculations, and I think we are right at the edge of the NIT bubble… The NIT bubble basically starts at about number 84 or 85 and goes up to 45

I think we need to get to 20 wins to secure the NIT bid…. Either win 3 of the last 4…. or win 2 of the last 4 and then get 1 at ACC…. that would put us in for sure


The only way we make the ncaa is winning out in the regular season and making it to the conf champ game.

Aside from that keep dreaming. This is reality

If we win out for the regular season we will enter the ACCT squarely on the bubble, but clearly the wrong side of it.

But 21-10 and 12-8 in the ACC definitely has us in the conversation. We will most likely need 2 wins in Greensboro, but even if we got to 22 wins overall I think we still have a reason to watch come Selection Sunday.

The NET hates us because our margin of victory (and losses). But I think In the end our resume will be decent. We need Colgate, LSU, Cornell and Oregon to finish strong.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The lesson learned this year is a hard schedule doesn't mean much if you get blown out and barely get by mid majors.

 

[orangenauburn]

If we win out for the regular season we will enter the ACCT squarely on the bubble, but clearly the wrong side of it.

But 21-10 and 12-8 in the ACC definitely has us in the conversation. We will most likely need 2 wins in Greensboro, but even if we got to 22 wins overall I think we still have a reason to watch come Selection Sunday.

The NET hates us because our margin of victory (and losses). But I think In the end our resume will be decent. We need Colgate, LSU, Cornell and Oregon to finish strong.

LSU bottoming out sucks and the kids don't get enough credit for the Oregon win

 

[Brooky03]

LSU bottoming out sucks and the kids don't get enough credit for the Oregon win

We beat Oregon when they had like 9 players out.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The ACC schedule has not helped us at all either. We have had 7 quad 1 games in conference. We will end up with 8.

By comparison Butler has 10 in the Big East and will end up with 11. Texas will end up with 12.

The conference on the whole needs to be better in November and December. That includes blowing out directional schools.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We beat Oregon when they had like 9 players out.

This keeps coming up. I think one of those guys came back. The rest of those guys have basically been done for the season.

 

[OptimusOtto]

The win at the Wolfpack moved us from 90 to 84 in NET and we are also 84 in KenPom

I did some calculations, and I think we are right at the edge of the NIT bubble… The NIT bubble basically starts at about number 84 or 85 and goes up to 45

I think we need to get to 20 wins to secure the NIT bid…. Either win 3 of the last 4…. or win 2 of the last 4 and then get 1 at ACC…. that would put us in for sure


The only way we make the ncaa is winning out in the regular season and making it to the conf champ game.

Aside from that keep dreaming. This is reality

If (big if) we win out I think there’s a chance for us to win 2 games with the 2nd one being Duke/UNC and make it. Would be great if we can get into a 5/6 seed to avoid one of those two until a theoretical semifinal rather than fully rested in a quarterfinal.

It all feels a day late and a dollar short but it’s nice to have somewhat of a pulse. Defend home court, beat a bad Louisville team and let’s see what happens with a Clemson team we were in it until the final 3 minutes.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I think we need 5 more Ws just to get onto the bubble.

So win the last 4 and one in the ACCT, or 3 out of 4 and 2 in the ACCT, or 2 out of 4 and 3 in the ACCT.

I think all of those give us a shot.

 

[Orangezoo]

This keeps coming up. I think one of those guys came back. The rest of those guys have basically been done for the season.

Yeah it’s an old and incorrect storyline. They actually were playing better before their big guy came back and ran off a bunch of wins. We beat the team they are not a bunch of bums.

 

[NineOneSeven]

 

[Orangezoo]

I think we need 5 more Ws just to get onto the bubble.

So win the last 4 and one in the ACCT, or 3 out of 4 and 2 in the ACCT, or 2 out of 4 and 3 in the ACCT.

I think all of those give us a shot.

If things shake out like NC St ending up Q1 I agree. Going 4-0 plus one in the ACCT we would have 4 Q1 wins. If Oregon somehow got top 50 in the Net even better.

Also we would benefit from more than holding serve at home. A bigger win vs both ND and VT would help the Net too. That said I’d love to get Duke in a neutral game in game two of the ACCT with winning out as our way to play in. Then maybe even get another shot at UVA if they made the semis. A six win steak though gets us to 23-10 and would think very much in play

 

[Orangezoo]

The ACC schedule has not helped us at all either. We have had 7 quad 1 games in conference. We will end up with 8.

By comparison Butler has 10 in the Big East and will end up with 11. Texas will end up with 12.

The conference on the whole needs to be better in November and December. That includes blowing out directional schools.

Only two of those quad 1 were home games too and that one is right on the line (Clemson).

 

[sufan59]

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we set the record for the lowest NET to get into the tournament as an at large. It may strike some controversial discussions on Selection Sunday, but we’ve been on both sides of that several times. Let’s take a look at our bad losses below Q2:
Georgia Tech: on paper it looks bad, but we share this exact loss with two teams that were in the bracket preview: Duke and UNC. UNC coming in as the 5th overall ranked team after their loss to us is maybe a sign that the committee respects the ACC more than the pundits.
Florida State at home: The worst loss on paper. Still they have shown to be a streaky team that can compete against anyone on a good night and there is still some games they can win to make this look a little less bad.

I think the resume has a lot of strengths right now due to sweeping Pittsburgh and now NC State. That UNC win is also a huge deal because that put the discussion to bed that they can’t compete with the best teams. There is an argument that we would be the 6th team out of the ACC at this moment behind UNC, Duke, Clemson, Virginia, and Wake Forest. I think the path is very much alive and we may actually be in if the season ended today.

Either way very excited about the direction of the program. If we can get to the ACC tourney semifinals, would that be considered a bigger accomplishment for this program and Autry than a first four bid or last four byes? Accomplishing one may very well accomplish the other, but I feel that success in the ACC tourney is something that would really signify that we are ascending as a program again.

 

[CorduroyG]

If we win out in the regular season i think we’ll be considered on the bubble going into the acc tourny. Then

 

[Orangezoo]

Wake actually has a pretty crappy resume - all their wins are at home even if they were big except beating GT and BC. The blowouts have helped their Net a good bit.

 

[Charbroil]

This keeps coming up. I think one of those guys came back. The rest of those guys have basically been done for the season.

Correct. And Syracuse beat them by 20. It’s not like they squeaked by and barely beat a team with a bunch of injuries. They blew their doors off.

 

[NorSyr66]

Many of the posters here talk about winning 3, 4, 5 games in a row! But as I look back over the past several weeks, we tend to win one then lose one, then repeat. For nearly the entire season we are never sure what team will show up. If we are going to surprise some people, we need to quickly develop some consistency. Not impossible but it will be a real up hill challenge for our streaky shooting and weak rebounding team. After saying all of that, I still want to run the table!! LGO

 

[jdubs30]

Wake actually has a pretty crappy resume - all their wins are at home even if they were big except beating GT and BC. The blowouts have helped their Net a good bit.

Yep. Wakes away/neutral wins are Towson, BC and GaTech. They’re 0-2 vs Duke and UNC.

Their big win is Florida at home - we don’t have an OOC win like that. But after that? Their next best win is UVA. The did play 3 P5 teams OOC (Georgia, LSU, Utah) - and lost all 3.

Our resume isn’t too far off from theirs despite our NET being over 40 spots apart.

Of Wakes 9 overall losses, 8 were by a margin of 10 or less. Of Wakes 9 ACC wins, 6 were by at least 15 points.

Our 10 losses, we lost by 15 or more 7 times. Our 2 biggest ACC wins were by 10pts and 11pts.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

This keeps coming up. I think one of those guys came back. The rest of those guys have basically been done for the season.

But the narrative!!!

 

[pokercuse08]

If the committee sorts by NET and then makes decisions based on resume in close spots, we're toast. But they're not supposed to do that, right? They're supposed to sort by resume and then consider a basket of metrics.

If they sort by resume and then consider all the metrics, we have a shot. Our resume is actually pretty good if we win 4 or 5 more games, including the ACCT.

It just comes down to how much they weight efficiency/margin versus quality of wins and bad losses.

 

[sufan59]

Yep. Wakes away/neutral wins are Towson, BC and GaTech. They’re 0-2 vs Duke and UNC.

Their big win is Florida at home - we don’t have an OOC win like that. But after that? Their next best win is UVA. The did play 3 P5 teams OOC (Georgia, LSU, Utah) - and lost all 3.

Our resume isn’t too far off from theirs despite our NET being over 40 spots apart.

Of Wakes 9 overall losses, 8 were by a margin of 10 or less. Of Wakes 9 ACC wins, 6 were by at least 15 points.

Our 10 losses, we lost by 15 or more 7 times. Our 2 biggest ACC wins were by 10pts and 11pts.

The Wake vs Cuse argument is an interesting one. They are really opposites. Wake has their blow out win against us though it was at home. There metrics are also excellent for a bubble team and the narrative is that they passed the eye test. Do we want a rematch in the ACC Tourney? That matchup can say a lot on how much the metrics should matter when comparing resumes.

 

[SBU72]

I think winning out is a daydream nightmare. SU already lost to Clemson and beat Louisville by 2 at home. Win both on the road? Ain't happening. Win 1 lose 1 rotation doesn't bode will for Sat either. Winning 3 of 4 and then round 1 of ACCT, then hopefully an NIT bide and that will probably be on the road.