There are always exceptions -- Justin Pugh, Chandler Jones, Bergeron. Guys who did not have top offers, maybe weren't well known to ranking services, maybe they committed early, but out coaches for some reason knew better. But we have to win a few more battles for kids who are also sought by peer programs.It is but you can get a general feel on the possible success of a prospect based on what teams are recruiting them.
At a minimum, I like to see heavy G5 offer lists on HS guys we're taking a flyer on, and work up from there. That isn't this class this year, and you're not going to have a chance in the rankings without a homer analyst at the sites without, at a minimum, landing prospects your peers wanted.
And here's the other thing - with our portal kids, people rally around Bellamy and Gould because of their P5 offers and their rankings at the sites. You can't have it both ways.
If a kid doesn't have offers from P5 schools, but has good metrics (40 times, height, wt) and/or performance metrics (rushing yards, for example) or all-star nominations -- maybe we found a gem. Or maybe the kid was a late bloomer, who wasn't on the radar in the summer before his senior year, but developed late (Jay Bromley). It can happen, but a little of that does not lead to consistent bowl games.