I've always seen about half the films in the major categories, so my opinion is just that: my opinion. it doesn't mean that other films or performances might not have been better. And you 'deserve' and Oscar if the a plurality of the Academy members thinks so, not because I think so. (That's why I created "the Steves").
"the Shape of water" was easily the best film I've seen in years. I thoguht "3 Billboards went off the rails about halfway through and "lady Bird" was Ok but a bit over-rated. Loved "the Post", "Dunkrik" and "Darkest Hour". I'd go with del Toro as best director, although nolan did a great job, too.
I'd have voted for Gary Oldman as best Actor, although he could have done the speech at the end a lot better).
Jessica Chastian should have won best Actress but wasn't even nominated. I would have voted for Sally Hawkins.
I haven't seen I, Tonya, but i love Allison Janney so much i'll be rooting for her. I'd also love to see Christopher Plummer win but I haven't seen "All the Money In the World" either. I have a feeling he should have been cast in the role originally. Spacey was going to do it with a plastic face to make him look old. Plummer doesn't need one.