Class of 2022 PF Jaret Valencia (TX/Colombia) Portal to Wichita St

[Orangezoo]

We’ll be fine shooting wise. Kingz can light it up. Kiyan, Fennell, Womack can shoot the ball. Obviously tbd about their playing time.
Starling is serviceable and when he’s hot he’s a great shooter but he’s streaky.
George can shoot. I bet his percentage is in the high 30’s, low 40s this year. And I think Freeman has some potential there. He showed last year he’s capable of hitting the shot. Just needs to work on it this off-season and be more consistent.

I also like that this year we have a few guys that can get their own shot in George and Starling.
Freeman and Kingz are capable as well but I think George and Starling excel there

I think we have to get shooting out of George and Donnie plus a decent pct from JJ at lower volume out of the starting group along with Kiyan off the bench. Deng if he ended up here certainly would boost that given he’s proven as a shooter at this level.

Womack is probably a long shot to contribute much at this point but never say never. The concern I share with 0307 is that those are things that have to come to fruition that are unproven outside of Kingz and also have to become a reality under a coaching staff that comes into this year with question marks galore.

That said I’m excited about what could be and nervous all the same. I must say I really think Kiyan has come a long ways and is not for a second going to be phased by the setting and level of play. Based on how he plays as well as how White plays they are both well positioned to have impactful freshman seasons.

 

[crank]

I must say I love all this discussion for a guy that we have no idea if we’re even favored to land him

 

[Cusefan0307]

We’ll be fine shooting wise. Kingz can light it up. Kiyan, Fennell, Womack can shoot the ball. Obviously tbd about their playing time.
Starling is serviceable and when he’s hot he’s a great shooter but he’s streaky.
George can shoot. I bet his percentage is in the high 30’s, low 40s this year. And I think Freeman has some potential there. He showed last year he’s capable of hitting the shot. Just needs to work on it this off-season and be more consistent.

I also like that this year we have a few guys that can get their own shot in George and Starling.
Freeman and Kingz are capable as well but I think George and Starling excel there

Ehhh not going to lie the “get your own shot” line drives me nuts. It insinuates more inefficient Iso ball that I am so over and no one overvalues ISO ball more than us.

JJ is the guy that concerns me. He was absolutely awful shooting the ball from February 1st on. Kind of why I was hoping for a ringer Southerland type if we could get him.

 

[Orangezoo]

Ehhh not going to lie the “get your own shot” line drives me nuts. It insinuates more inefficient Iso ball that I am so over and no one overvalues ISO ball more than us.

JJ is the guy that concerns me. He was absolutely awful shooting the ball from February 1st on. Kind of why I was hoping for a ringer Southerland type if we could get him.

I wonder if Kiyan and the Aussie are too good to keep off the floor and JJ struggles if Red would make the call to reduce his role and minutes.. he’s not shown the ability to be the bad guy and do what necessary to date.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Kiyan, Fennell, Womack can shoot the ball. Obviously tbd about their playing time.

all freshman. Choppa was supposed to be one of the best shooters on the team last season. We saw how that turned out.

 

[Orangezoo]

all freshman. Choppa was supposed to be one of the best shooters on the team last season. We saw how that turned out.

Kiyans game is far more refined already and has put up numbers against the best in the country not to mention having an all time great as his pops. If there is a shooter as a frosh that can break through the usual freshman challenges I’d put money on Kiyan being that guy. As for Womack and Fennell completely agree. Womack would be a massive surprise if he’s ready yet.

 

[littlereg]

We’ll be fine shooting wise. Kingz can light it up. Kiyan, Fennell, Womack can shoot the ball. Obviously tbd about their playing time.
Starling is serviceable and when he’s hot he’s a great shooter but he’s streaky.
George can shoot. I bet his percentage is in the high 30’s, low 40s this year. And I think Freeman has some potential there. He showed last year he’s capable of hitting the shot. Just needs to work on it this off-season and be more consistent.

I also like that this year we have a few guys that can get their own shot in George and Starling.
Freeman and Kingz are capable as well but I think George and Starling excel there

No offense but your points are exactly why Cusefan0307 is worried. Relying on freshman to be good and reliable shooters, “betting” on George to shoot 37-42% , freeman having the potential, etc all things that are just hypotheticals. Thats where the worry comes in. What if the freshman take time to adjust? What if George shoots the 33-35% he’s shot in his career (for the record I think he’s gonna shoot at a higher clip because he won’t be taking as many shots and as many bad/contest/late shot clock shots)? What if freeman shows minimal improvement. The combination out of those hypotheticals will really tell how the season plays out but it’s definitely warranted to be worried about the shooting IMHO.

 

[newmexicuse]

Kiyans game is far more refined already and has put up numbers against the best in the country not to mention having an all time great as his pops. If there is a shooter as a frosh that can break through the usual freshman challenges I’d put money on Kiyan being that guy. As for Womack and Fennell completely agree. Womack would be a massive surprise if he’s ready yet.

I like this fresh class. I think all four will have their moments, question is if two or more can be reasonably consistent.

 

[Orangezoo]

No offense but your points are exactly why Cusefan0307 is worried. Relying on freshman to be good and reliable shooters, “betting” on George to shoot 37-42% , freeman having the potential, etc all things that are just hypotheticals. Thats where the worry comes in. What if the freshman take time to adjust? What if George shoots the 33-35% he’s shot in his career (for the record I think he’s gonna shoot at a higher clip because he won’t be taking as many shots and as many bad/contest/late shot clock shots)? What if freeman shows minimal improvement. The combination out of those hypotheticals will really tell how the season plays out but it’s definitely warranted to be worried about the shooting IMHO.

There are reasons for optimism and concern equally. A lot of this will come down to the boring stuff like how well the frontcourt additions and returnee does with setting screens and how quickly the freshmen get adjusted. Along with how well the staff adjusts the offense to match the skill sets of what is 80 pct a completely new roster.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Kiyans game is far more refined already and has put up numbers against the best in the country not to mention having an all time great as his pops. If there is a shooter as a frosh that can break through the usual freshman challenges I’d put money on Kiyan being that guy. As for Womack and Fennell completely agree. Womack would be a massive surprise if he’s ready yet.

If this was a top-20 team year in and year out getting tremendous effort from frosh consistently, I'd be inclined to concur. But we haven't had much of a track record here except a lot of freshmen underwhelming.

There are a lot of pie in the sky comments in Choppa's recruiting thread.

 

[Niastri]

This is going to be the most athletic Cuse team in awhile. Since before Buddy and Girard. Which is nice to see. Where we obviously had more talent than the kid majors and lower level teams but we could also just put athlete them and win by 20. That’s what this years team is looking like. Should be an exciting and fun to team to watch if we get out and run. If we get stuck in half court sets it will be a tough watch in my opinion. This team is clearly built to get out and run and not the half court sets lol

Interesting thoughts…

I agree that they will be very good on the break. Most of our big guys are skilled enough where they can rebound and immediately turn to start the break. They all will be able to finish with authority.

Regarding your concern about the half court, I think we could be ok.

We all got tired of watching Starling go one on five every other play last season. Even though he wasn’t put in an optimal position for success, he led a team of mid major players to 14 wins… But we can’t have “Starling Isolation” be our only play.

I don’t think that will be a problem. George is also a good isolation or pick and roll player, but a great passer out of those plays. Kingz is everything we hoped Bell could someday be. He is a great catch and shoot specialist, plus he can drive, pass and get to the rim efficiently as well. The center transfers can finish at the rim and receive lob passes effectively. The freshman are all projected to be decent or better scorers right off the bat.

But the real difference is Freeman. He is a triple threat player on every possession. I generally feel that the term three level scorer is overused as an expression. Freeman is actually able to shoot over you, post you up, or drive around you. He might be literally unguardable at this level by the end of the year. He will command double teams, and that’s going to allow every other player open shots and lines to the basket.

I think we’ll be ok in the half court, with massive upside if Freeman develops the way I hope.

Just for reference, here is the Three Point% and True Shooting% for our returning and transfer rotation players using last years stats.

Freeman .333 3pt and .591 TS%
Starling .268 and .487
George .339 and .503
Kingz .446 and .655
Kyle No Attempts .625
Souare 0/1 and .544

Anthony and Fennell have decent shooting records against good lower level competition. White doesn’t shoot many threes, but can make them if open. I don’t think he’ll shoot many threes as a freshman.

Valencia, btw, is .379 and .533 in those categories respectively. 87 career three point attempts.

Deng is .380 and .575 on many more career attempts, 229.

 

[Orangezoo]

If this was a top-20 team year in and year out getting tremendous effort from frosh consistently, I'd be inclined to concur. But we haven't had much of a track record here except a lot of freshmen underwhelming.

There are a lot of pie in the sky comments in Choppa's recruiting thread.

For sure- I think being hesitant with any freshman expectations should be common sense in this portal driven world. The questions people had with Choppa were warranted as it pertained to level of competition he faced etc. I don’t have a prediction for Kiyan other than that I just think he’s as well positioned as anyone to break through and much more so than Choppa despite the pie in the sky comments to your point which there certainly were more than a few.

 

[baggerbob]

You double the post with quickness, guards come down and hack. Play the athletic game like Houston. I would rather give up 2 point baskets in the post than 3’s.

With this group of players, you don't let teams walk the ball up the floor and get into their sets. You press sometimes, at the least you meet them at halfcourt and force the pace.
Keep fresh players on the floor constant pressure at all positions. Eventually the opposition will get a bit tired, and make mistakes.
Doesn't have to be Arkansas 40 minutes of hell, bug more like what tark did at UNLV.

 

[djcon57]

87 three point attempts over 60 low major career games. If he’s wide open, you don’t mind him shooting it. He’s actually a pretty good shooter, partially because he’s very selective.

Valencia’s .379 career three point shooting would have been the second best team percentage in ACC play last season… Behind only Duke’s team shooting of .386.

Only 20 teams shot three pointers at 38% clip last season.

If Valencia is out there with Freeman, Kingz, Starling and George, he’s solid enough of a threat to make a three that you can’t really afford to leave him alone. That opens up the floor for everybody else.

Did you consider Davis a threat to shoot a 3 last year?

Other teams seems to let him shoot when he wanted, even though he shot even better than Valencia.

 

[littlereg]

There are reasons for optimism and concern equally. A lot of this will come down to the boring stuff like how well the frontcourt additions and returnee does with setting screens and how quickly the freshmen get adjusted. Along with how well the staff adjusts the offense to match the skill sets of what is 80 pct a completely new roster.

yeah definitely and when you dont really have any backing to trust the staff until they prove otherwise it’s hard to get an actual gauge on what to expect.

 

[Orangezoo]

Did you consider Davis a threat to shoot a 3 last year?

Other teams seems to let him shoot when he wanted, even though he shot even better than Valencia.

It’s really difficult when trying to assess finding the right backup wing comparing Deng vs Valencia. In both cases , for different reasons these guys address a known issue. Deng clearly addresses shooting with size and ability to hit the boards and defend( but proven only at a lower level) . Valencia more so defense and rebounding with the ability to shoot ( but not proven at this level only at a lower level and only with limited sample).

Does having two guys like Sadiq help us more or does adding a guy who could be a bigger Chris Bell ( the version not having the yips) help us more?

 

[djcon57]

It’s really difficult when trying to assess finding the right backup wing comparing Deng vs Valencia. In both cases , for different reasons these guys address a known issue. Deng clearly addresses shooting with size and ability to hit the boards and defend( but proven only at a lower level) . Valencia more so defense and rebounding with the ability to shoot ( but not proven at this level only at a lower level and only with limited sample).

Does having two guys like Sadiq help us more or does adding a guy who could be a bigger Chris Bell ( the version not having the yips) help us more?

I'd prefer someone who can shoot otherwise we're essentially trusting the freshman.

If Kingz gets hurt, can't pull off major mins, has other issues...then we got nothing outside of Freeman

 

[Niastri]

Did you consider Davis a threat to shoot a 3 last year?

Other teams seems to let him shoot when he wanted, even though he shot even better than Valencia.

Good question. Davis shot very well on very low volume. He only attempted 1.1 threes on the year, and almost all of them were wide open.

Davis didn’t seem to think he was a three point shooter, he often would leave the wide open three and dribble in to shoot a contested shot in the paint. I think he probably should have shot more often, especially since teams were daring him to shoot from out there.

Valencia shot a few more threes per game, and seems to have confidence in his shooting that Davis didn’t. Also, their career numbers suggest Valencia is better at shooting than Davis, and Davis benefited from SSS and being left wide open.

Good question. Both can be true… Davis shot better last year than Valencia, against better competition, AND Valencia is the better shooter.

That would be a scouting distinction I’m not sure I’m qualified to make… But looking at them play, I would choose Valencia instead of Davis if my goal was to make three pointers at a higher rate.

 

[djcon57]

Valencia shot a few more threes per game, and seems to have confidence in his shooting that Davis didn’t. Also, their career numbers suggest Valencia is better at shooting than Davis, and Davis benefited from SSS and being left wide open.

This is haggling with numbers.

Valencia has attempted 1.5 3s a game at Monmouth

Davis averaged 1.3 3s a game at Delaware and Cuse.

That's literally 1 more 3 every 5 games. Not "a few more threes per game".

I think my point seems pretty valid. Neither are 3 point shooters, rather a guy who will shoot an open 3

 

[Niastri]

This is haggling with numbers.

Valencia has attempted 1.5 3s a game at Monmouth

Davis averaged 1.3 3s a game at Delaware and Cuse.

That's literally 1 more 3 every 5 games. Not "a few more threes per game".

I think my point seems pretty valid. Neither are 3 point shooters, rather a guy who will shoot an open 3

I guess I answered the wrong question, then.

I don’t consider either a true three point shooter… But if I was entering a three point contest, I’d chose Valencia first.

If Deng were around, I’d pick him ahead of Valencia.

All around, though, I liked Valencia’s film more than Deng. One thing I didn’t like about Deng is his tendency to take bad contested long range twos. The worst shot in basketball.

Valencia dunks, takes threes, or gets into the lane. Few of his shots were truly terrible choices.

Valencia is also a much more athletic player, who I think has higher upside. He also is a much better shotblocker and a little better rebounder than Deng. His overall defense is much better… They both originally played in the CAA, and their comparable freshman years, Deng was a -2.6 DBPM and Valencia was a .7 DBPM.

It appears playing in the CAA gets you big point deduction from DBPM, because Deng was a lot better in the ACC. Either way, Valencia brings a better ability to contest shots.

Another rambling non answer, I’m afraid.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Petar was brutal any time he had to play the 5 this year.

We know you don't rate him. That's fine. Our defense when he was on the floor was our second best grouping last year.

 

[IthacaMatt]

his inexperience aside, 6'8, 215 is not a center, regardless of this 'position-less basketball stuff'.
maybe against lesser schools, but sooner or later you bump into a team that can make use of a
true big guy, or you face a bruiser who outweighs him by 30 lbs.

same concern i have with putting donnie, sadiq, valencia, deng, or bristow in the position, and
possibly even kyle. don't quite understand why they did not jump all over bradshaw when he
was available. sure his ask was high, given the UK->OSU past and the jump to Memphis, but
c'mon, career averages of like 6 pts and 3.5 rebs? the counter would be "ballard wanted the same,
but at least he averaged a double double. get real." get a true C, not a skinny PF type you've never
shown the ability to bulk up into a "power" forward.

kev

Yes, I agree. It's like having a big man rotation of Jesse Edwards and Maliq Brown against Florida State and North Carolina. You need one guy with some bulk.

 

[CuseSaint26]

Valencia committed to Wichita State

 

[Chicago44s]

 

[SanDiegoCuse]