Postgame Thoughts... Clemson (game 2)

[AZOrange]

ESPN headline is JB comments rather than the big win...

 

[CU44SE]

Re: Rutgers

We were up by 3 with 5 minutes left. Also that was the game Buddy missed, and Joe was 1/8 from the field.

I don’t think Jesse changes that outcome, but a healthy Buddy probably does

We were out rebounded 40-24 and they shot 56% from 2. Obviously we will never know, but I assume both those numbers would have been different with Edwards. If I remember correctly they had big boys that were just tossing marek around down low. Marek had 4 total (1 off and 3 def) rebounds, 2 steals, 0 blocks in 37 minutes.

 

[DCUNITED13]

Watching every game this season (OK, I skipped the 1st Clemson Game as it was DVR and a true friend warned me about the result).

Feel we could have won 3 more games. Rutgers (with Buddy), UNC (had our shots fallen in the last 2-3 minutes) and PITT #1 (What Happened I still don't understand). Perhaps the PITT game was JB's responsibility, but the results could not have been changed by playing Kadari and Jesse more minutes in those 3 games.

So, best case scenario is 18-5 and perhaps some top 25 votes. This on a team where we will not have a 1st OR 2nd team ACC player. Great coaching job and as always finding the diamonds in the rough for SU. Marek and Buddy. Lets be real, we do not have a 1st or 2nd round pick on this team (whatever the reason). This is a pretty nice result and should we win 1 in the ACC we could be "dancing". Right now, outside of FSU and UVA we can beat anyone in the ACC. Go CUSE.

 

[two3zone]

Great win yesterday. Easily our best defensive game of the year. The guys really moved in the zone.
-AG is so trick or treat. But when he is not moving and sets his feet he is a pure shooter. That final three near the end of the shot clock when we took the air out of the ball was so unusual, it feels like we never get that bounce. He played with so much joy yesterday, it was fun to watch. I loved that lefty move off the glass and I continue to wonder why, with his athleticism and given how close defenders have to play him, he doesn't go to the hole more.
-I give Kadary a ton of credit. He showed serious stones doing what he did on one leg. Would like to see him finish more around the basket but I think added strength will help with that next year. One thing people haven't talked about on here much is his free throw shooting. He isn't scared to go to the line and despite barely bending his knees he usually makes them. We will never take that for granted.
-Buddy dropped 17 but he missed a bunch he doesn't normally miss and his defense was not as good on the perimeter as he was responsible for a number of open threes. I think fatigue played a big part in that as he played 39 minutes two days after playing 39 versus UNC. I think JB has to do a better job of giving him some rest, especially when a tv timeout is coming up. How much would they lose if Braswell got a couple of minutes to spell Buddy? You could move AG to the 2 and you would gain defensively overall.
-The insurrection day loss at home to Pitt is the killer. We really don't have any other what if losses where we blew the game. It feels like if we had won that game we might already been in or one win next week would clinch it.
-The JB shot at Gutierrez was lame. He should be above that but we know he isn't. To be fair Matt got carried away with his tweet. I don't think we are 3-4 wins behind where we should be, as I noted above we only have one close loss. But on the other hand maybe if Kadary had started we would not have gotten in so many deep holes and had a better chance in some of those games. As far as Jesse goes, it is worth noting that in the first UNC loss Jesse played 7 minutes with no boards. But the flip side of that is that he had been in mothballs and it is asking kid a lot to come in cold against the best rebounders in the conference. In the loss from hell against Pitt Jesse had a dnp and we got out rebounded 42-29.
-I hope we get Duke, beat them and clinch a bid. I think one win in Greensboro gives us a great shot to get in.

We are 12 points better per 100 possession with Kadary playing than Girard and considering the lack of run Kadary got throughout the year and close losses it’s not really out of reach to have 3 or more wins.

 

[OrangeDW]

Please. We struggled and should have lost to Bryant. Whats difficult playing cupcakes and at Rutgers when you aren't expected to win.

1 month of non conference vs 2 put him in a tough spot? Give me a break.

We missed 10 days of practice and then came back for 1 day and played Bryant. And some people here tried to say missing practice didn’t matter.

 

[orangedave]

ESPN headline is JB comments rather than the big win...

It did what headlines are supposed to do - draw readers to the article. I have no problem with that.

 

[Red Holzman]

It did what headlines are supposed to do - draw readers to the article. I have no problem with that.

The problem is our HOF HC who made this the headline vs his team's great win.

 

[Tobias Funke]

We are 12 points better per 100 possession with Kadary playing than Girard and considering the lack of run Kadary got throughout the year and close losses it’s not really out of reach to have 3 or more wins.

So here are our losses: The number on the left is # of points we lost by. Number on the right is minutes Kadary played. We average 70 possessions per game this year. So using an average that puts Kadary's points per game impact at 8.4 points positive in theory, or .21 points per minute.

10 points : 37 minutes
3 points : 19 minutes
6 points : 16 minutes
20 points : 18 minutes
17 points : 28 minutes
23 points : 20 minutes
14 points : 29 minutes
7 points: 26 minutes

So assuming we aren't expecting 40 minutes out of Kadary, but maybe 32? I wonder which 3 games we win. An argument can be made for game two and three on that list.

My point is that the data itself can guide us, but it doesn't necessarily say that Kadary's increased playing time wins us more games. What it does say is we are better with him on the court which cannot be overlooked. Given the margins of defeat it not exactly like the games swing in our favor automatically.

 

[two3zone]

So here are our losses: The number on the left is # of points we lost by. Number on the right is minutes Kadary played. We average 70 possessions per game this year. So using an average that puts Kadary's points per game impact at 8.4 points positive in theory, or .21 points per minute.

10 points : 37 minutes
3 points : 19 minutes
6 points : 16 minutes
20 points : 18 minutes
17 points : 28 minutes
23 points : 20 minutes
14 points : 29 minutes
7 points: 26 minutes

So assuming we aren't expecting 40 minutes out of Kadary, but maybe 32? I wonder which 3 games we win. An argument can be made for game two and three on that list.

My point is that the data itself can guide us, but it doesn't necessarily say that Kadary's increased playing time wins us more games. What it does say is we are better with him on the court which cannot be overlooked. Given the margins of defeat it not exactly like the games swing in our favor automatically.

Second third and last one. But you’re right, it doesn’t show it all, but momentum is a big thing and most of the games we start out down 7 or more when Joe starts before he Kadary comes in.

 

[djcon57]

So here are our losses: The number on the left is # of points we lost by. Number on the right is minutes Kadary played. We average 70 possessions per game this year. So using an average that puts Kadary's points per game impact at 8.4 points positive in theory, or .21 points per minute.

10 points : 37 minutes
3 points : 19 minutes
6 points : 16 minutes
20 points : 18 minutes
17 points : 28 minutes
23 points : 20 minutes
14 points : 29 minutes
7 points: 26 minutes

So assuming we aren't expecting 40 minutes out of Kadary, but maybe 32? I wonder which 3 games we win. An argument can be made for game two and three on that list.

My point is that the data itself can guide us, but it doesn't necessarily say that Kadary's increased playing time wins us more games. What it does say is we are better with him on the court which cannot be overlooked. Given the margins of defeat it not exactly like the games swing in our favor automatically.

Sadly, if you switch 2 games, it puts us on the other side of the bubble. Pretty big right now

 

[Tobias Funke]

Sadly, if you switch 2 games, it puts us on the other side of the bubble. Pretty big right now

For sure, but even two games may be a stretch. I just think anything that says "we would have won if" should be pretty closely vetted. At my assumption of Kadary playing 32 minutes in any of those games with points per minute we would have won our second loss of the year and that's it. Could we have won the others? sure we could have, we also could have lost some games earlier in the year as well for all we know.

edit: I should note I am big proponent of Kadary getting more minutes than Joe and starting. I am not a fan of the assumptions that certain small data points can drive.

 

[Nicknack]

Ppl are more interested in the pressers than the games these days. It’s super weird to me.

I don't know about that. I stopped watching the pressers. First time in years that I've done that, especially after wins. I used to love them. This is the first season I stopped watching them because I'm fed up with Boeheim and how thin skinned he is and how his stubbornness gets in the way of success. Therefore, to save me further frustration, I've stopped watching.

 

[djcon57]

For sure, but even two games may be a stretch. I just think anything that says we would have won if should be pretty closely vetted. At my assumption of Kadary playing 32 minutes in any of those games with points per minute we would have won our second loss of the year and that's it. Could we have won the others? sure we could have, we also could have lost some games earlier in the year as well for all we know.

edit: I should note I am big proponent of Kadary getting more minutes than Joe and starting. I am not a fan of the assumptions that certain small data points can drive.

yeah I get it. its all theoretical, but it’s not an uninformed opinion. We’ve seen what happened when he played in those games.

In the pitt loss,
Joe plays 32 mins with a Box plus minus of -4.5
Kadary plays 19 with bpm of -3.6
we lost by 3. It’s not crazy to suggest that flipping the mins could have affected the outcome of the game

same with UNC game 1,
26 mins, -2.8 bpm
16 mins, -0.4 bpm

Additionally, lots of the early season games would not have been as close if Kadary played more mins, imo.

Joe vs Bryant and Buddy vs Northeastern were particularly glaring.

ftr, I don’t agree that playing Jesse would have been a difference in the early games we lost

 

[OrangeDW]

yeah I get it. its all theoretical, but it’s not an uninformed opinion. We’ve seen what happened when he played in those games.

In the pitt loss,
Joe plays 32 mins with a Box plus minus of -4.5
Kadary plays 19 with bpm of -3.6
we lost by 3. It’s not crazy to suggest that flipping the mins could have affected the outcome of the game

same with UNC game 1,
26 mins, -2.8 bpm
16 mins, -0.4 bpm

Additionally, lots of the early season games would not have been as close if Kadary played more mins, imo.

Joe vs Bryant and Buddy vs Northeastern were particularly glaring.

ftr, I don’t agree that playing Jesse would have been a difference in the early games we lost

One thing all these numbers don’t account for as much, is how the game changes depending on if you’re winning or losing.

Perhaps some of those other games would’ve went differently if we weren’t down 10, 5 minutes into the game.

Maybe some of those games don’t get away from us if we don’t have to desperately go to the trunk monkey because we’re down double digits...a deficit that was mostly built in the first few minutes of the game.

 

[billsin01]

Re: Rutgers

We were up by 3 with 5 minutes left. Also that was the game Buddy missed, and Joe was 1/8 from the field.

I don’t think Jesse changes that outcome, but a healthy Buddy probably does

We got outrebounded bad at Rutgers so maybe Jesse helps? Not sure, but my only point was that it certainly wasn't a function of Kadary not playing. Buddy definitely makes a difference there.

 

[MikeSU02]

One thing all these numbers don’t account for as much, is how the game changes depending on if you’re winning or losing.

Perhaps some of those other games would’ve went differently if we weren’t down 10, 5 minutes into the game.

Maybe some of those games don’t get away from us if we don’t have to desperately go to the trunk monkey because we’re down double digits...a deficit that was mostly built in the first few minutes of the game.

Yeah - I'm less concerned about which games we won (but to DJCon57's post, flip two games and we're in the tourney already), but that we are giving ourselves the best chance to win.

W/ Kadary on the floor, we are +12.5. Without him, we are -0.6 per 100 possessions. That disparity is huge.

His BPM and WS/40 are so outrageously higher than JGIII's that I think it's almost impossible to think we gave ourselves the best opportunity to win this year.

 

[SUFaninNJ]

yeah I get it. its all theoretical, but it’s not an uninformed opinion. We’ve seen what happened when he played in those games.

In the pitt loss,
Joe plays 32 mins with a Box plus minus of -4.5
Kadary plays 19 with bpm of -3.6
we lost by 3. It’s not crazy to suggest that flipping the mins could have affected the outcome of the game

same with UNC game 1,
26 mins, -2.8 bpm
16 mins, -0.4 bpm

Additionally, lots of the early season games would not have been as close if Kadary played more mins, imo.

Joe vs Bryant and Buddy vs Northeastern were particularly glaring.

ftr, I don’t agree that playing Jesse would have been a difference in the early games we lost

Wasn't there talk about Kadary getting winded early in the season? Perhaps that had something to do with limiting minutes early on as well.

Was Jesse impacted at all by COVID? I have no clue, and am not speculating that he did. We know about JG3, Buddy and Chaz. Most likely his lack of minutes were due to where he was in the pecking order regarding big men, but if he had gotten it, obviously that could've played in to it.

 

[malpearl31]

yeah I get it. its all theoretical, but it’s not an uninformed opinion. We’ve seen what happened when he played in those games.

In the pitt loss,
Joe plays 32 mins with a Box plus minus of -4.5
Kadary plays 19 with bpm of -3.6
we lost by 3. It’s not crazy to suggest that flipping the mins could have affected the outcome of the game

same with UNC game 1,
26 mins, -2.8 bpm
16 mins, -0.4 bpm

Additionally, lots of the early season games would not have been as close if Kadary played more mins, imo.

Joe vs Bryant and Buddy vs Northeastern were particularly glaring.

ftr, I don’t agree that playing Jesse would have been a difference in the early games we lost

My problem with trying to analyze how and where Kadary would have made a difference is that it ignores how Kadary actually played in some of these games.

For example, in the first UNC game, Kadary was -9 in 8 first half minutes - he checked in with 11:43 to play in the half and SU down 1 point, 16-15 - and he checked out with 3:51 to play in the half and SU trailing by 10, 36-26. Then the team promptly went on a 14-4 run to close out the half (Buddy went into NBA Jam 'on fire' mode) and we went to the locker room tied at 40-all.

JB stuck with the same lineup for the start of the 2nd half - and SU did extend to a 56-51 lead with 11:09 to play with Kadary on the bench the entire time. When JB finally did summon Kadary into the game with 9:13 to play, SU was trailing by 6 points (62-56), but I think I understand why JB stuck with the starters as long as he did - that lineup was +15 over an 11 minute stretch of the game.

We did go on a little mini-run after Kadary entered the game and took a brief lead at 68-67 with 3:21 to play on two free throws by Quincy, but we gave it back and trailed 71-68 when JB subbed Joe back in for Kadary with 2:04 to play. Ultimately, it was a couple of Carolina offensive rebounds late, plus Quincy fouling out that was the difference that night. For the game, Kadary was -7 total in 16 minutes on the court.

I love Kadary and I'm happy that he has gotten more minutes as the season has progressed. Please don't misinterpret this post as some sort of Kadary-bashing. But I generally disagree with the simplistic analysis that "if only JB had played Kadary more, we definitely would have won more games". I think that a deeper game-by-game analysis shows that this isn't necessarily true.

If we end up on the wrong side of the bubble, I think it's going to be the collapse against Pitt that we all look back on as the one that hurt the most. And I don't think that loss can be pinned on how many minutes JB did or did not give to Kadary, either.

 

[LockedOnSyr]

 

[djcon57]

My problem with trying to analyze how and where Kadary would have made a difference is that it ignores how Kadary actually played in some of these games.

For example, in the first UNC game, Kadary was -9 in 8 first half minutes - he checked in with 11:43 to play in the half and SU down 1 point, 16-15 - and he checked out with 3:51 to play in the half and SU trailing by 10, 36-26. Then the team promptly went on a 14-4 run to close out the half (Buddy went into NBA Jam 'on fire' mode) and we went to the locker room tied at 40-all.

JB stuck with the same lineup for the start of the 2nd half - and SU did extend to a 56-51 lead with 11:09 to play with Kadary on the bench the entire time. When JB finally did summon Kadary into the game with 9:13 to play, SU was trailing by 6 points (62-56), but I think I understand why JB stuck with the starters as long as he did - that lineup was +15 over an 11 minute stretch of the game.

We did go on a little mini-run after Kadary entered the game and took a brief lead at 68-67 with 3:21 to play on two free throws by Quincy, but we gave it back and trailed 71-68 when JB subbed Joe back in for Kadary with 2:04 to play. Ultimately, it was a couple of Carolina offensive rebounds late, plus Quincy fouling out that was the difference that night. For the game, Kadary was -7 total in 16 minutes on the court.

I love Kadary and I'm happy that he has gotten more minutes as the season has progressed. Please don't misinterpret this post as some sort of Kadary-bashing. But I generally disagree with the simplistic analysis that "if only JB had played Kadary more, we definitely would have won more games". I think that a deeper game-by-game analysis shows that this isn't necessarily true.

If we end up on the wrong side of the bubble, I think it's going to be the collapse against Pitt that we all look back on as the one that hurt the most. And I don't think that loss can be pinned on how many minutes JB did or did not give to Kadary, either.

this is good analysis. I don’t think it’s Kadary bashing at all...in no way am I suggesting Kadary played well vs UNC for example...but it’s a win shares type situation. You now need to do the same analysis for Joes mins vs UNC. His box plus minus was worse.

 

[djcon57]

My problem with trying to analyze how and where Kadary would have made a difference is that it ignores how Kadary actually played in some of these games.

For example, in the first UNC game, Kadary was -9 in 8 first half minutes - he checked in with 11:43 to play in the half and SU down 1 point, 16-15 - and he checked out with 3:51 to play in the half and SU trailing by 10, 36-26. Then the team promptly went on a 14-4 run to close out the half (Buddy went into NBA Jam 'on fire' mode) and we went to the locker room tied at 40-all.

JB stuck with the same lineup for the start of the 2nd half - and SU did extend to a 56-51 lead with 11:09 to play with Kadary on the bench the entire time. When JB finally did summon Kadary into the game with 9:13 to play, SU was trailing by 6 points (62-56), but I think I understand why JB stuck with the starters as long as he did - that lineup was +15 over an 11 minute stretch of the game.

We did go on a little mini-run after Kadary entered the game and took a brief lead at 68-67 with 3:21 to play on two free throws by Quincy, but we gave it back and trailed 71-68 when JB subbed Joe back in for Kadary with 2:04 to play. Ultimately, it was a couple of Carolina offensive rebounds late, plus Quincy fouling out that was the difference that night. For the game, Kadary was -7 total in 16 minutes on the court.

I love Kadary and I'm happy that he has gotten more minutes as the season has progressed. Please don't misinterpret this post as some sort of Kadary-bashing. But I generally disagree with the simplistic analysis that "if only JB had played Kadary more, we definitely would have won more games". I think that a deeper game-by-game analysis shows that this isn't necessarily true.

If we end up on the wrong side of the bubble, I think it's going to be the collapse against Pitt that we all look back on as the one that hurt the most. And I don't think that loss can be pinned on how many minutes JB did or did not give to Kadary, either.

I’ll give you a specific example from this game...while acknowledging that the starters had a good first half

Joe starts the 2nd half, game goes from tied to -6, the defense gives up 22 points in 11 mins.

Kadary comes in as you stated, UNC proceeds to score 9 points in the next 7 mins. I simply believe his importance to the team defense is/was too important to leave on the bench.

Also...just for reference, the box plus minus isn’t a basic plus minus

 

[upperdeck]

this all assumes that we dont lose any games by flipping the minutes either. maybe we lose a couple of those close early wins with a FR making mistakes..

 

[djcon57]

this all assumes that we dont lose any games by flipping the minutes either. maybe we lose a couple of those close early wins with a FR making mistakes..

What specific games...that doesn’t follow the numbers we see. Kadary played in the games.

 

[upperdeck]

he played
18 vs clemson and we won
15 vs BC and we won
16 vs nc st
15 vs VT
6 vs Gtown
9 min vs byrant
18 vs NE

So the assumption is that if he played more we might win 2-3 more of the games we lost, All assumes he playes well in those games.. But we also won some games he played very little, Maybe he plays 10 more minutes and we lose those 3-5 pt games.

its all what if.. Its not like he played lights out every night. He also has been dinged up quite a bit if he plays more he might end up not playing in a few games with those injuries.. We know JB mentioned he had issues but we pretty assume lack of playing time is coach being coach.. He might not have been able to give us more.

 

[djcon57]

he played
18 vs clemson and we won
15 vs BC and we won
16 vs nc st
15 vs VT
6 vs Gtown
9 min vs byrant
18 vs NE

So the assumption is that if he played more we might win 2-3 more of the games we lost, All assumes he playes well in those games.. But we also won some games he played very little, Maybe he plays 10 more minutes and we lose those 3-5 pt games.

its all what if.. Its not like he played lights out every night. He also has been dinged up quite a bit if he plays more he might end up not playing in a few games with those injuries.. We know JB mentioned he had issues but we pretty assume lack of playing time is coach being coach.. He might not have been able to give us more.

You are avoiding my question. What specific games would we have lost