PS: Dino Babers era promises much more 4th-down excitement than Scott Shafer (analysis)

[LeMoyneCuse]

...

Yes. Which we didn't get. That's the point.

Regardless of time and score, Shafer wanted his defense on the field. It was a fatal flaw. He cared too much about limiting points and not enough about getting them.

If you're going to err, err on the side of getting points, because the game is scored such that whoever has the most points wins, not that you get credit for holding a team below a certain score independent of what your offense did.

Yeah, as I've watched more and more college football, I've realized that punting is becoming a relic of a by-gone era.

When football was all about the run (no legal forward pass), teams would punt on second or third down in an effort to get field position. If the score is going to be 6-0 because you're running into 11 men on the box on every play, it's a battle to get as close to the end zone as possible to start a drive in an effort to actually score.

Now, with the offense we have that's built on exploiting mismatches, you don't really HAVE to have field position. It's good to have, but not mandatory. So while punting has it's benefits, confidence in your offense and the ability to gain 600 yards a game allows you to take more chances and be more flexible on fourth downs.

So who needs punting?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Yeah, as I've watched more and more college football, I've realized that punting is becoming a relic of a by-gone era.

When football was all about the run (no legal forward pass), teams would punt on second or third down in an effort to get field position. If the score is going to be 6-0 because you're running into 11 men on the box on every play, it's a battle to get as close to the end zone as possible to start a drive in an effort to actually score.

Now, with the offense we have that's built on exploiting mismatches, you don't really HAVE to have field position. It's good to have, but not mandatory. So while punting has it's benefits, confidence in your offense and the ability to gain 600 yards a game allows you to take more chances and be more flexible on fourth downs.

So who needs punting?

I know people make fun of this when I say it, but any kid that plays Madden figured out long before most football coaches that punting should be the situational call, and going for it on 4th is the default.

 

[TheCusian]

Whatever it takes to get the W's.

Just admit you're still burned about Shafer. No need to tie yourself in knots killing what Babers did at BG or arguing for Shafer's conservative 4th down philosophy.

 

[gbo]

generally pathetic teams , SU had 1 in Rhody .

Didn't you guys play NC State as well...

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Didn't you guys play NC State as well...

Hard to call them pathetic when we lost to them.

 

[CousCuse]

Just admit you're still burned about Shafer. No need to tie yourself in knots killing what Babers did at BG or arguing for Shafer's conservative 4th down philosophy.

I think Scott should have been retained , that is true . I now support Babers and don't think people are doing him any favors by raising expectations so high . As it pertains to the comparison of BGU to SU , that is like comparing apples to oranges . Any data point taken from BGU has to be greatly extrapolated to be applied to SU . For instance , there was a long stretch of their season where the games were very manageable , even easy . Not so in this league where if you overlook an opponent because of a power team the next week , you will lose.

 

[gbo]

Hard to call them pathetic when we lost to them.

Minor problem which will be corrected this year.

 

[sufandu]

I know people make fun of this when I say it, but any kid that plays Madden figured out long before most football coaches that punting should be the situational call, and going for it on 4th is the default.

I think calling it the default is a little overboard. BG still punted more often than they went for it last year and they attempted 15 field goals with a crappy kicker.

In 2014 he went for it less (23), attempted more fg's (29), and punted more (82), so even DB is influenced by how much confidence he has in his offense to make it and defense to hold if they don't.

Certainly he is more progressive than most coaches, and much more so SS, but we shouldn't expect that we'll be going for it the majority of the time.

 

[CousCuse]

Didn't you guys play NC State as well...

Didn't you guys play USC .

 

[gbo]

Didn't you guys play USC .

Well played

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think calling it the default is a little overboard. BG still punted more often than they went for it last year and they attempted 15 field goals with a crappy kicker.

In 2014 he went for it less (23), attempted more fg's (29), and punted more (82), so even DB is influenced by how much confidence he has in his offense to make it and defense to hold if they don't.

Certainly he is more progressive than most coaches, and much more so SS, but we shouldn't expect that we'll be going for it the majority of the time.

Yeah, I know. By default I mean more like the initial thought is to go for it, and you think about and decide to punt. Vs the standard being that the initial thought is to punt, but you really have to think about it and decide to go for it. Does that make sense?

I keep thinking of how many times we saw P/GRob/Marrone/Shafer see the ball get downed short of the first down marker and immediately call for the punt team. I don't think that's Babers' gut reaction.

 

[TheCusian]

I think Scott should have been retained , that is true . I now support Babers and don't think people are doing him any favors by raising expectations so high . As it pertains to the comparison of BGU to SU , that is like comparing apples to oranges . Any data point taken from BGU has to be greatly extrapolated to be applied to SU . For instance , there was a long stretch of their season where the games were very manageable , even easy . Not so in this league where if you overlook an opponent because of a power team the next week , you will lose.

1. Do you think Dino Babers is a better head coach than Shafer?

2. Most here have us at the 5-7 win range. That's not crazy.

3. No comp is apples to apples. It always involves guess work. I've stated repeatedly that the road in the ACC is way tougher.

 

[CousCuse]

1. Do you think Dino Babers is a better head coach than Shafer?

2. Most here have us at the 5-7 win range. That's not crazy.

3. No comp is apples to apples. It always involves guess work. I've stated repeatedly that the road in the ACC is way tougher.

I like both guys a lot . Baber's has a very positive persona , and I think he may be able to get players to strive with everything they have . Wins are going to be tough , I can't see a team on the schedule that took a step back , maybe NCSU. As far as comps go , I think it is easy to see a guy like Mark Richt going from UGA to The U and can say it is very similar and his record should translate .

 

[Chip]

Maryland and Purdue had their worst years in history . Bowling Green is one of the powers of the MAC along with NIU and Toledo .

I can't recall, were you the one that was the last Shafer holdout?

If so, I hope you brought a volleyball and a sharpie to that island.

 

[PhatOrange]

Right . The ACC is a real conference , top to bottom .

and Shafer only won 4 games. Babers inherits a 4 win roster minimum and when you look at the games Shafer blew (UVA and Pitt) it's a 6 win roster. It's not really raising expectations to say Babers should win 5-7 games.

IMHO, the schedule has 4 automatic W's in Colgate, UConn, Wake and BC.

 

[CousCuse]

I can't recall, were you the one that was the last Shafer holdout?

If so, I hope you brought a volleyball and a sharpie to that island.

I let go of Wilson . I just can't take the bad logic of why would you punt against BC . Their 6th string QB could literally not hit the broad side of a barn . Play the run and blitz every down . Why give them field position on some lucky play or penalty ?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I let go of Wilson . I just can't take the bad logic of why would you punt against BC . Their 6th string QB could literally not hit the broad side of a barn . Play the run and blitz every down . Why give them field position on some lucky play or penalty ?

Because you're already losing to that crappy team, you're running out of time, and you're pretty much as close to scoring as you can get.

 

[creatorsgam]

Because you're already losing to that crappy team, you're running out of time, and you're pretty much as close to scoring as you can get.

Exactly. Punting in that situation also sends a message to the offense that that you have no faith in them. Cannot build in-game momentum that way, and a good way to destroy player confidence. Next time they take the field the end zone will look 300 yards away.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Millhouse loved shafer's conservative plays

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Exactly. Punting in that situation also sends a message to the offense that that you have no faith in them. Cannot build in-game momentum that way, and a good way to destroy player confidence. Next time they take the field the end zone will look 300 yards away.

I mean, when the defense succeeds, that means they got the ball back for the offense without giving up any points (let's put aside the possibility that the defense scores because that's just such a rare event).

When the offense succeeds, they score points. That's a common event (well, for everybody else it is, at least).

When you accept those two statements, the road to victory is clear.

 

[upperdeck]

Maryland and Purdue had their worst years in history . Bowling Green is one of the powers of the MAC along with NIU and Toledo .

maryland lost to BG 48-27 and oSU 49-28.. being a bad team and beng nonathletic are 2 different things

 

[Scooch]

Whatever it takes to get the W's.

We got 14 "W"s in 3 years. That wasn't nearly enough. Good reason to change the approach.

 

[rocklloyd]

Quickkicks for life! #QFL

 

[RF2044]

I think Scott should have been retained , that is true . I now support Babers and don't think people are doing him any favors by raising expectations so high . As it pertains to the comparison of BGU to SU , that is like comparing apples to oranges . Any data point taken from BGU has to be greatly extrapolated to be applied to SU . For instance , there was a long stretch of their season where the games were very manageable , even easy . Not so in this league where if you overlook an opponent because of a power team the next week , you will lose.

Why does it have to be "greatly" extrapolated? Just because you feel the need to temper your own enthusiasm / expectations?

Nobody suggests that the schedules were perfectly comparable. What you seem to be overlooking, however, is that BGSU wracked up a ton of yardage and points against P5 competition despite fielding a team of ostensibly inferior recruits. So, while it might not be an apples-to-apples perfect comparison, if Babers could do that with MAC level recruits playing outside, what might he be able to do with ACC recruits and the ability to play more than half the schedule in a domed environment?

And who said anything about overlooking anybody? The funny thing is: when you score a lot of points, you have a margin for error in any game. When you don't score a lot of points, then you have an infinitesimally smaller margin for error, no matter who the opponent is.

We've tried the latter, time to get with modern college football and give the former a whirl.



Edit--for the record, I don't expect a "magical" transformation. I think it will probably take Babers 2 full years to turn over the talent on this roster, get the systems fully implemented, to get the team comfortable with said systems, and to fully replenish depth. That will put us in a state of near-optimization. But we don't have to be fully optimized to win / have success. Dungey is a huge reason why we can be good this year. How good? We'll see. But for me, success doesn't mean rainbows and unicorns need to dance in the end zone after we score touchdowns every possession, and disappointment if that doesn't occur.

I think we're actually going to be surprised by how solid the offense plays early, and that it will get better over the course of the season. And by next year, we'll see the same jump in productivity that Babers's teams have seen at both of his previous stops, and we'll be a borderline top 25 team NEXT year. And from there--it will all be a function of recruiting and how good Dungey will prove to be [and how good Culpepper and / or DeVito are following after him].

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Why does it have to be "greatly" extrapolated? Just because you feel the need to temper your own enthusiasm / expectations?

Nobody suggests that the schedules were perfectly comparable. What you seem to be overlooking, however, is that BGSU wracked up a ton of yardage and points against P5 competition despite fielding a team of ostensibly inferior recruits. So, while it might not be an apples-to-apples perfect comparison, if Babers could do that with MAC level recruits playing outside, what might he be able to do with ACC recruits and the ability to play more than half the schedule in a domed environment?

And who said anything about overlooking anybody? The funny thing is: when you score a lot of points, you have a margin for error in any game. When you don't score a lot of points, then you have an infinitesimally smaller margin for error, no matter who the opponent is.

We've tried the latter, time to get with modern college football and give the former a whirl.



Edit--for the record, I don't expect a "magical" transformation. I think it will probably take Babers 2 full years to turn over the talent on this roster, get the systems fully implemented, to get the team comfortable with said systems, and to fully replenish depth. That will put us in a state of near-optimization. But we don't have to be fully optimized to win / have success. Dungey is a huge reason why we can be good this year. How good? We'll see. But for me, success doesn't mean rainbows and unicorns need to dance in the end zone after we score touchdowns every possession, and disappointment if that doesn't occur.

I think we're actually going to be surprised by how solid the offense plays early, and that it will get better over the course of the season. And by next year, we'll see the same jump in productivity that Babers's teams have seen at both of his previous stops, and we'll be a borderline top 25 team NEXT year. And from there--it will all be a function of recruiting.

Really, if there's a year for Babers to struggle this is going to be it. Once Dungey's an upperclassman and the young defense has matured, the tools are all there.