A Clockwork Orange
2022 Cali Winner (Overall Record)
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I've been interested in the "leap" our players are expected to make running Babers (and Briles) system. So I decided to go back and look at year one, after Briles took over Baylor, and Babers took over Bowling Green.
I will do this for RB's and WR's if there is interest for it. And I'll look at three year splits.
Briles was taking over a bit of a trash heap (not entirely dissimilar from our situation recently), and Babers was taking over a team that was already doing well. Here are some of the results.
In 2008, Briles recruited RG III to Baylor, an obvious and immediate difference maker. He also recruited in Kendall Wright, another major difference maker on the outside.
QUARTERBACKS IN THE SYSTEM:
Baylor:
Blake Szymanski was the starter in '07, and still on the team in '08. RG III started for Briles in his first year.
* Szymanski passed for 2800 yards in '07, and went 264-461 for a 57% completion rate. He had 22 TD's and 18 picks.
* RG III passed for 2091 yards in '08. He went 160-267 for a 60% completion rate. He had 15 TD's and 3 picks.
* RG III was injured in '09 and didn't play.
Surprisingly (to me at least) there was less throwing of the ball, but a higher Y/A overall (by more than a yard and a half per attempt). This speaks to those shots downfield that Babers has talked about before.
Bowling Green:
Matt Johnson was the primary signal caller in 2013 for BGSU, under Dave Clawson. He was still at Bowling Green when Babers took over. Babers ended up using James Knapke for the majority of the year, after Johnson went down with a season ending hip injury in the first game, As an aside, Johnson came back for his senior year and put up some amazing stats himself.
* In 2013, Johnson passed for 3500 yards on 237-369 for a 64% completion rate. He had 25 TDs and 7 picks.
* In 2014, Knapke passed for 3200 yards on 280-483 for a 58% completion rate. He had 15 YDs and 12 picks.
* In 2015, Johnson passed for 5000 yards on 383-569 for a 67% completion rate. He had 46 TDs and 8 picks.
It's interesting that in both instances there were different QB's running the system than the year before. One due to injury, one due to recruiting. In both case, numbers went down a bit, but not as much as you would expect given the fact that those teams were dealing with a freshman and a backup QB.
I don't think this tells much, but it will be interesting to see what Dungey can do if he stays healthy the whole year.
Downside here is we probably fit Baylor's profile in 2007 more than we fit BGSU's in 2014. Bowling Green was already solid in their conference when Babers came in, Baylor was a perennial bottom team in he Big 12. Briles certainly had a more daunting rebuilding effort, but I think SU will suffer through some growing pains as well.
I do think without a doubt we will see an uptick in scoring (even in losses). The problem will be, in those losses it will be the 54-32 variety instead of the 28-13 variety. Not sure which one feels better or worse.
I will do this for RB's and WR's if there is interest for it. And I'll look at three year splits.
Briles was taking over a bit of a trash heap (not entirely dissimilar from our situation recently), and Babers was taking over a team that was already doing well. Here are some of the results.
In 2008, Briles recruited RG III to Baylor, an obvious and immediate difference maker. He also recruited in Kendall Wright, another major difference maker on the outside.
QUARTERBACKS IN THE SYSTEM:
Baylor:
Blake Szymanski was the starter in '07, and still on the team in '08. RG III started for Briles in his first year.
* Szymanski passed for 2800 yards in '07, and went 264-461 for a 57% completion rate. He had 22 TD's and 18 picks.
* RG III passed for 2091 yards in '08. He went 160-267 for a 60% completion rate. He had 15 TD's and 3 picks.
* RG III was injured in '09 and didn't play.
Surprisingly (to me at least) there was less throwing of the ball, but a higher Y/A overall (by more than a yard and a half per attempt). This speaks to those shots downfield that Babers has talked about before.
Bowling Green:
Matt Johnson was the primary signal caller in 2013 for BGSU, under Dave Clawson. He was still at Bowling Green when Babers took over. Babers ended up using James Knapke for the majority of the year, after Johnson went down with a season ending hip injury in the first game, As an aside, Johnson came back for his senior year and put up some amazing stats himself.
* In 2013, Johnson passed for 3500 yards on 237-369 for a 64% completion rate. He had 25 TDs and 7 picks.
* In 2014, Knapke passed for 3200 yards on 280-483 for a 58% completion rate. He had 15 YDs and 12 picks.
* In 2015, Johnson passed for 5000 yards on 383-569 for a 67% completion rate. He had 46 TDs and 8 picks.
It's interesting that in both instances there were different QB's running the system than the year before. One due to injury, one due to recruiting. In both case, numbers went down a bit, but not as much as you would expect given the fact that those teams were dealing with a freshman and a backup QB.
I don't think this tells much, but it will be interesting to see what Dungey can do if he stays healthy the whole year.
Downside here is we probably fit Baylor's profile in 2007 more than we fit BGSU's in 2014. Bowling Green was already solid in their conference when Babers came in, Baylor was a perennial bottom team in he Big 12. Briles certainly had a more daunting rebuilding effort, but I think SU will suffer through some growing pains as well.
I do think without a doubt we will see an uptick in scoring (even in losses). The problem will be, in those losses it will be the 54-32 variety instead of the 28-13 variety. Not sure which one feels better or worse.
