Quad 1 win

[FRANKIEFAN]

I don't think that's a very good team. They could get better and round into form and the ACC isn't that intimidating. We definitely caught them at the right time.

Hamilton doesn't know which guys should play. Better players were transfers who left their teams early last year. They are a good ways off what they have been the last few years.

Road ACC wins is going to be the key for us. @ Georgetown is basically a road ACC game as well. If we can rack those up we should be in good shape. We should play well in conference at home. Yesterdays win goes out the window if we don't beat them in the Dome Jan 15.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I don't think that's a very good team. They could get better and round into form and the ACC isn't that intimidating. We definitely caught them at the right time.

Hamilton doesn't know which guys should play. Better players were transfers who left their teams early last year. They are a good ways off what they have been the last few years.

Road ACC wins is going to be the key for us. @ Georgetown is basically a road ACC game as well. If we can rack those up we should be in good shape. We should play well in conference at home. Yesterdays win goes out the window if we don't beat them in the Dome Jan 15.

Hamilton plays 10-11 guys every year.

 

[pearl31]

So you are saying they will go 12-8 in the ACC no problem then?

I'm not saying its not a possibility. But nothing they have done indicates its a possibility.

based on Hamilton's recent track record and on how relatively down the conf is as a whole, yes I do believe FSU will go 12-8 at worst - they're clearly still figuring it out but there's too much talent/size/depth on that roster along with a really good coach

 

[jncuse]

About Colgate…

College Basketball Rankings 2023-24 - NET

Get the latest College Basketball rankings for the 2023-24 season. Find out where your favorite team is ranked in the AP Top 25, Coaches Poll, Top 25 And 1, NET, or RPI polls and rankings.

www.cbssports.com

They are ranked 30th in NET right now, thanks to the win over us and overall SOS. Remember, last year they didn’t play any non-conference games until the tournament. Considering they returned just about everyone, they should do well in the Patriot. They also have a chance for some decent road wins coming up against Pitt, SJU, Monmouth, and Vermont.

UVA losing to Navy will be a worse loss than us losing to Colgate.

Those are last year's final NET in those standings, since the official NET has not come out.
WarrenNolan does the same thing.

Bartorvik is the only site that I have seen that tries to give a live NET figure.

 

[kcsu]

Q1 for sure. On the road first team to beat them there in a very long time. Great win.

 

[jncuse]

based on Hamilton's recent track record and on how relatively down the conf is as a whole, yes I do believe FSU will go 12-8 at worst - they're clearly still figuring it out but there's too much talent/size/depth on that roster along with a really good coach

Then that is fine.
My point is that reaching NET top 75 for ACC teams will be harder this year than prior years. It could well require a few more conference wins.

 

[jncuse]

Hamilton plays 10-11 guys every year.

As I said yesterday he is the Anti-JB. While some get frustrated here with the minutes JB gives to starters, I think we would be going mad (in the opposite direction) for what Hamilton does if we were losing.

At the end of the day they have both been successful. So different systems work.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Then that is fine.
My point is that reaching NET top 75 for ACC teams will be harder this year than prior years. It could well require a few more conference wins.

Love your man and I always follow you here, but I’m not following how you’re tying conference record to these metrics when a big part of the metrics are based on performance on a possession by possession basis and not wins.

 

[pearl31]

Then that is fine.
My point is that reaching NET top 75 for ACC teams will be harder this year than prior years. It could well require a few more conference wins.

yep, and I agree w that - def only a relatively small handful of ACC teams will remain above that mark, but I strongly believe FSU will be one of them

 

[Orangezoo]

So you have very high confidence they are going 12-8 in the ACC?

I'm not saying its not possible. I think its more likely than not. So if you told asked me to bet on even odds whether FSU ends up top 75, I would take the bet that they will.

But its certainly not in the "highly doubt" category for me.

I think you have to use historical precedent when looking at FSU. Right now their numbers are not great I can agree with that. They also have been more vulnerable early season than conference play. The ACC being as weak as it is on top of that.

Their ACC schedule is fairly friendly as well. Their win over Mizzou will help them out likely as the season plays out. We need them to beat South Carolina on the road but they get that and close out the non conference and they are doing ok. I figure they land somewhere between 45 and 70 in NET.

Also conference record isn't gonna dictate their NET. It will very much depend on who they beat/lose to and where.

 

[jncuse]

I mean I watch a lot of hoops. If we finish 2nd in the ACC I wouldn’t be surprised. I hope we win Tuesday because this place continues to find ways to out chicken little itself even after wins.


I agree the ACC is not good. We can win 13 plus ACC games this year.

I wouldn't be totally surprised either if we are top 4 in the ACC, which should be a little comfort zone no matter the conference woes. Anything lower than that becomes uncomfortable.

 

[Day2]

Those are last year's final NET in those standings, since the official NET has not come out.
WarrenNolan does the same thing.

Bartorvik is the only site that I have seen that tries to give a live NET figure.

Yeah, I figured that out after I posted. According to Torvik, Colgate is 110th, just after Dayton and Navy.

 

[Orangezoo]

ACC needs to have a good couple weeks. Best case scenario being that we beat Nova, no What losses, NC St shocks Purdue, and really we get every non conf win possible absent Colgate beating Pitt and the Domers dropping to UK so the heat on Brey starts boiling so maybe Starling ends up back in play.

 

[Cusefan0307]

 

[jncuse]

I think you have to use historical precedent when looking at FSU. Right now their numbers are not great I can agree with that. They also have been more vulnerable early season than conference play. The ACC being as weak as it is on top of that.

Their ACC schedule is fairly friendly as well. Their win over Mizzou will help them out likely as the season plays out. We need them to beat South Carolina on the road but they get that and close out the non conference and they are doing ok. I figure they land somewhere between 45 and 70 in NET.

Also conference record isn't gonna dictate their NET. It will very much depend on who they beat/lose to and where.

I have things to agree and disagree with this one. I strongly disagree on the bolded part.

1. I agree with the perspective you provided in the first paragraph.

2. I don't think that Missouri win will help them out at all. KP at this point is still fluid at this point, but by my quick scan their KP of #141 is 62 out of 65. Only better than Georgia, Washington, and mightly Pitt. They can improve a bit, but I can't see it really becoming anything.

3. NET's are highly influenced by how a conference did in OOC. Here is what happens when you enter conference play in January. The conferences that did well (SEC, BIG, BE, and B12) all have better NET's / RPI's and it become a multiplier effect...they start to boost each other's RPI/NET which most importantly boosts Q1 and Q2 win opportunities. And the lower performing P5 conferences have lower metrics coming into conference so the multiplier effect goes the other way.

As I posted last night look at the disparity in Q1 games played by an ACC team vs an SEC Team.

As a positive Bartorvik (and KP) for that matter still project nice things for FSU, but I think part of that is because there is still a predictive factor in their formula. Because I don't see that number in their actual results to date.

 

[jncuse]

I don't think Arizona St will be a Q2 win. (I suspect they will be outside of the top 100 based on my reading of Bartorvik)

I also think Colgate stays a Q3 (as of now). But that will be something to watch all year.

 

[pearl31]

I don't think Arizona St will be a Q2 win. (I suspect they will be outside of the top 100 based on my reading of Bartorvik)

I also think Colgate stays a Q3 (as of now). But that will be something to watch all year.

Yeah. Really gotta hope Colgate does well enough in conference so that they stay in q3. blech

 

[Day2]

I have things to agree and disagree with this one. I strongly disagree on the bolded part.

1. I agree with the perspective you provided in the first paragraph.

2. I don't think that Missouri win will help them out at all. KP at this point is still fluid at this point, but by my quick scan their KP of #141 is 62 out of 65. Only better than Georgia, Washington, and mightly Pitt. They can improve a bit, but I can't see it really becoming anything.

3. NET's are highly influenced by how a conference did in OOC. Here is what happens when you enter conference play in January. The conferences that did well (SEC, BIG, BE, and B12) all have better NET's / RPI's and it become a multiplier effect...they start to boost each other's RPI/NET which most importantly boosts Q1 and Q2 win opportunities. And the lower performing P5 conferences have lower metrics coming into conference so the multiplier effect goes the other way.

As I posted last night look at the disparity in Q1 games played by an ACC team vs an SEC Team.

As a positive Bartorvik (and KP) for that matter still project nice things for FSU, but I think part of that is because there is still a predictive factor in their formula. Because I don't see that number in their actual results to date.

View attachment 211455

View attachment 211456

Yeah, Mizzou sucks. There won’t be any smoke and mirrors the first half of conference play this year.

 

[Orangezoo]

I have things to agree and disagree with this one. I strongly disagree on the bolded part.

1. I agree with the perspective you provided in the first paragraph.

2. I don't think that Missouri win will help them out at all. KP at this point is still fluid at this point, but by my quick scan their KP of #141 is 62 out of 65. Only better than Georgia, Washington, and mightly Pitt. They can improve a bit, but I can't see it really becoming anything.

3. NET's are highly influenced by how a conference did in OOC. Here is what happens when you enter conference play in January. The conferences that did well (SEC, BIG, BE, and B12) all have better NET's / RPI's and it become a multiplier effect...they start to boost each other's RPI/NET which most importantly boosts Q1 and Q2 win opportunities. And the lower performing P5 conferences have lower metrics coming into conference so the multiplier effect goes the other way.

As I posted last night look at the disparity in Q1 games played by an ACC team vs an SEC Team.

As a positive Bartorvik (and KP) for that matter still project nice things for FSU, but I think part of that is because there is still a predictive factor in their formula. Because I don't see that number in their actual results to date.

View attachment 211455

View attachment 211456

I think you have to take some use cases in the ACC from last year and play them out. Look at us last year. It was a weird year but we had absolutely nothing to write home about in the non conference arguably very similar to what you see with FSU right now.

Furthermore, the movement week to week in conference record was not large in the NET last year as we followed it closely. 12-8 vs 10-10 might move you some but not a lot. If FSU gets enough top 75 wins in conference play and avoids a Q3 or Q4 stinker, they are unlikely to fall out of the top 75. They are also unlikely to climb above say 45 unless they go crazy and win 14 or 15 straight.

I think the more critical of your points is that of how the conference as a whole fairs in the non conference. Given how bad we were last year in the shorter season as a conference and yet SU managed to have numbers that kept them a Q1 win for anyone who beat us in the dome- it's a fair call that FSU stays there even if it's closer to 75 than 45.

I'm confident they will be Q1 .. if they beat SC and don't slip in the non conf after that.

 

[Orangezoo]

Yeah, Mizzou sucks. There won’t be any smoke and mirrors the first half of conference play this year.

They were 16-9 last year and finished 47 in KP. Maybe they are worse but I don't see them sitting that far back all year. SEC is solid so a few wins and reasonable record and it's at least a decent Q2 road win for them. Within the lines of the wins we had last year in the non conf.

 

[jncuse]

Love your man and I always follow you here, but I’m not following how you’re tying conference record to these metrics when a big part of the metrics are based on performance on a possession by possession basis and not wins.

Will try to explain it later to you today during the Raptors game my friend. Need to head out. But I will try it quickly now. (EDIT - or not so quickly)

You are correct that KP is a possession by possession system, and the NET at least has some power elements to it. So they are somewhat comparable. Although in my observations to date the NET has more punitive and rewarding elements like the RPI in terms of how a conference did OOC.

But look at it this way (for KP anyway)
If I am a BIG team and I go 11-9, I am likely beating and losing to teams that have higher KP's, than a team that goes 11-9 in the ACC. So naturally that BIG team will have a higher KP at the end of the day. And likely NET.

Of course margins could negate the above... if I am crushing teams in my wins and losing close games, an ACC team at 11-9 can be viewed the same as a BIG team that goes 11-9 under KP. But generally over a sample of 20 games, the margin factor will even out for most teams such that the record becomes just as good an indicator.

Whether it's FSU or not, 11-9, 10-10 ACC teams will have poor NETS compared to prior years, which most importantly impacts Q1 and Q2 records. Do I think it's a fair system? Not really -- its why conferences that have most seeds don't tend to perform any better (by seed) than other conferences. It actually goes the other way.

Just play around with this forecast tool and see the predicted NET's for the middle team in the top 6 conferences. You will see the ACC and Pac-12 have the lowest NET's in the middles and the less Q1 games.

NET Forecast - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[jncuse]

With respect to FSU.

As people that follow me know I am pretty loyal to using KP to make judgments of teams that are not in the top 10. It's impossible to measure 350 teams with your eyes and its a fairly good (not perfect) data system.

I am just confused how KP is interpreting the data even if it is margin based. They did destroy #100 Loyola Marymount which really helps, and they have high margin wins against Missouri and a bad Penn team, but scanning it, it just doesn't compute with me.

If they are truly #35 in KP, then the expectation should be that they trend to top 75 NET rather easily.

 

[Day2]

They were 16-9 last year and finished 47 in KP. Maybe they are worse but I don't see them sitting that far back all year. SEC is solid so a few wins and reasonable record and it's at least a decent Q2 road win for them. Within the lines of the wins we had last year in the non conf.

The only team I follow more than Mizzou is Syracuse. It’s not happening. They fell apart down the stretch last season and had more defections than us, with little coming in. I don’t see them beating Kansas, Utah, or Illinois, and the SEC is even better than last year.

 

[jncuse]

You are all right in however that FSU does have a bit of room to maneuver with based on where KP sees them and their history.

Bartorvik has them at 20-11, 13-7 to project to 43 in NET. Perhaps 11-9 slides under the 75.
So perhaps we can give more "comfort" on this one than I have been giving.

But my point about ACC concerns still stands.
We might only have one Q1 win opportunity at home in conference. That makes getting Q1 wins very difficult.

Its important we do well on the road, but even if FSU holds (likely), teams that were traditionally 8th-10th in the ACC were a Q1 road win. Not this year.

 

[Bball44]

Will try to explain it later to you today during the Raptors game my friend. Need to head out. But I will try it quickly now. (EDIT - or not so quickly)

You are correct that KP is a possession by possession system, and the NET at least has some power elements to it. So they are somewhat comparable. Although in my observations to date the NET has more punitive and rewarding elements like the RPI in terms of how a conference did OOC.

But look at it this way (for KP anyway)
If I am a BIG team and I go 11-9, I am likely beating and losing to teams that have higher KP's, than a team that goes 11-9 in the ACC. So naturally that BIG team will have a higher KP at the end of the day. And likely NET.

Of course margins could negate the above... if I am crushing teams in my wins and losing close games, an ACC team at 11-9 can be viewed the same as a BIG team that goes 11-9 under KP. But generally over a sample of 20 games, the margin factor will even out for most teams such that the record becomes just as good an indicator.

Whether it's FSU or not, 11-9, 10-10 ACC teams will have poor NETS compared to prior years, which most importantly impacts Q1 and Q2 records. Do I think it's a fair system? Not really -- its why conferences that have most seeds don't tend to perform any better (by seed) than other conferences. It actually goes the other way.

Just play around with this forecast tool and see the predicted NET's for the middle team in the top 6 conferences. You will see the ACC and Pac-12 have the lowest NET's in the middles and the less Q1 games.

NET Forecast - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

This detailed analysis is very interesting. My feeling is playing 20 conference games and 2 less non-conference games will hurt the ACC this year. What's your opinion?