Tracking the ACC OOC vs Other Leagues (24/25)

[jncuse]

Yesterday started fine going 2-1 in "key games", but in the end it ended disappointing going 2-4 in key games and falling a little further behind rather than gaining ground.

Also in the critical margin game against cupcakes, the ACC was a bit below average again despite Florida St winning by 34. This was because SMU's 2 point win over Cal Baptist and Virginia's underwhelming 9 point win against a sub 300 team.

 

[capeorange]

I'll bet Malik thought the defense was a little too tough. Duke is a young team that will be a tough out in March.

Maliq looked like he stuck his but out and took out Dickinson's legs. It didn't take long for him to pick up some of that dook culture. Of course the kick in retaliation was not very subtle.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Maliq looked like he stuck his but out and took out Dickinson's legs. It didn't take long for him to pick up some of that dook culture. Of course the kick in retaliation was not very subtle.

I just became Dickinson's biggest fan!

 

[Cheriehoop]

Maliq looked like he stuck his but out and took out Dickinson's legs. It didn't take long for him to pick up some of that dook culture. Of course the kick in retaliation was not very subtle.

I thought Dickinson was just banging continuously even with his elbows knocking him backwards with no call. Maliq got caught backing up after Dickinson’s miss to get position, got called for the foul, then Dickinson retaliated. Dickinson was 3 for 9 inside the arc in the game, MaliQ did a good job on him especially considering he’s 5 inches shorter and 50 pounds lighter. He obviously ticked him off enough.

 

[sufan59]

Yesterday started fine going 2-1 in "key games", but in the end it ended disappointing going 2-4 in key games and falling a little further behind rather than gaining ground.

Also in the critical margin game against cupcakes, the ACC was a bit below average again despite Florida St winning by 34. This was because SMU's 2 point win over Cal Baptist and Virginia's underwhelming 9 point win against a sub 300 team.

The ACC teams just continue to not be ready for November. I feel like we’re seeing the same script over again where teams substantially improve by March and outperform expectations in the tournament. And that also means the eye test in the quality of how they play improves. Not that it’s going to happen, but the ACC would benefit in a mixed schedule of conference and non conference games throughout the entire season.

 

[capeorange]

I though Dickinson was just banging continuously even with his elbows knocking him backwards with no call. Maliq got caught backing up after Dickinson’s miss to get position, got called for the foul, then Dickinson retaliated. Dickinson was 3 for 9 inside the arc in the game, MaliQ did a good job on him especially considering he’s 5 inches shorter and 50 pounds lighter. He obviously ticked him off enough.

Both teams got away with a lot of uncalled contact. But, you're right, Dickinson is quite the hacker.

 

[ar inj]

Dickinson is overrated and always comes up short in the clutch. There is a reason he is still cashing NIL checks.

 

[MSOrange]

West Virginia looks to have rebuilt pretty quickly

 

[capeorange]

West Virginia looks to have rebuilt pretty quickly

I guess it can be done...

 

[jncuse]

Another recent day quick rebuild. although they have struggled in the tourney.

Iowa St, after going a woeful 2W-22L in the 2021 season. Brought in a new coach and have proceeded to go.

2022 - KP #43, 11 seed
2023 - KP #29, 6 seed
2024 - KP #8, 2 seed
2025 - KP #6

 

[Lukeyloo]

Another recent day quick rebuild. although they have struggled in the tourney.

Iowa St, after going a woeful 2W-22L in the 2021 season. Brought in a new coach and have proceeded to go.

2022 - KP #43, 11 seed
2023 - KP #29, 6 seed
2024 - KP #8, 2 seed
2025 - KP #6

We can’t possibly compare to historical powerhouse Iowa State! Our brand is nothing compared to theirs, clearly Red is just fighting too much of an uphill battle!

 

[jncuse]

Another sub .500 day by the ACC in games of significance (Q1/Q2 or power conference)

2 wins
Louisville over Indiana (Q1/Q2 straddler based on current KP)
SMU over Washington St (Q2/Q3 straddler)

3 losses (OK I'm already assuming Notre Dame loses to Houston)
UNC loses to MSU
Virginia Tech loses to South Carolina
Notre Dame loses to Houston


SEC is currently 4-0 in games of significance. Surprisingly Rutgers is hanging in there with Alabama right now (80-78(

 

[hoopsupstate]

Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky might be all top five teams along with Kansas. You can also throw in Iowa St.

 

[cuseattle]

Surprisingly Rutgers is hanging in there with Alabama right now

Dylan Harper looks like the real deal. 35 last night, 31 and counting tonight.

 

[kirbivore]

Another recent day quick rebuild. although they have struggled in the tourney.

Iowa St, after going a woeful 2W-22L in the 2021 season. Brought in a new coach and have proceeded to go.

2022 - KP #43, 11 seed
2023 - KP #29, 6 seed
2024 - KP #8, 2 seed
2025 - KP #6

no excuses Red stans

 

[jncuse]

Records against P5 conferences only (ACC, SEC, B10,B12, BE)
1. SEC 28-12 (70%)
2. B10 20-13 (61%)**
3. B12 12-16 (43%)
BE 9-12 (43%)
5. ACC 12-28 (30%)

** The B10 is only 6-11 against the MWC and other Q1/Q2 schools out of the P5. If I included those games for all conferences the win% would be as follows: - SEC (71%), B10 (52%), B12 (43%), BE (43%), MWC (37%), ACC (34%)

ACC By League
B10 6-6
B12 3-7
BE 2-3
SEC 1-12

The ACC/SEC challenge hopefully goes better... it can't go worse than 1-12.

 

[jncuse]

ACC has had 5 teams do fairly well in OOC based on KP (5 of the top 38), which is decent but lagging (B10 10, SEC 9, B12 8, ACC 5, BE 3). Those 5 teams also all have some quality wins.

But those 5 teams will face a problem (as will the BE teams) There are 11 teams from the P5 that are KP 100 or worst. 6 are in the ACC 33% of league), and 3 in the BE (30% of the league). The problem is that those 6 teams are going to drag down Q1 and Q2 win opportunities and NET by team -- but they will also steal wins from time to time as none are outright terrible teams.

Depaul 100
Georgetown 105
Seton Hall 106

Minnesota 101
USC 109

Virginia 102
Syracuse 103
Georgia Tech 110
Cal 117
Boston College 127
Virginia Tech 139

 

[jncuse]

As a comp here are the worst teams in the SEC right now per KP.
South Carolina 78
Vanderbilt 70
Georgia 61
Missouri 56

#75 is the sweet spot in NET, because that means the game will always be a Q1/Q2 game and teams cannot have a Q3 loss. Essentially the SEC is tracking into a league, where every game will have a quality win, and bad losses are impossible.

The SEC has 2 teams with a KP of #70 or above, and none above 80.
The ACC has 10 teams with a KP of #70 or above, and 7 above 80.
B10 is 4/2
B12 is 4/3
BE is 4/4 (but they are also smaller league)

BE and ACC have mediocrity issues.

 

[jncuse]

A look forward at the ACC/SEC challenge.

After starting the year 1-12 vs the SEC, the ACC is now raring to go to officially challenge the SEC!

The ACC will certainly do better win % wise than 1-12, when you consider there are home games. Using win probability based on team rankings the expectation would probably be 5 wins (5-11). So get some luck and that could be 7 games... I suppose some bad luck makes it 3 wins.

Projected Lines
Day 1
Arkansas at Miami (+2.5)
Notre Dame (+7) at Georgia
Cal (+10) at Missouri
South Carolina at BC (+1)
Syracuse (+20) at Tennessee
Wake Forest (+12) at Texas A&M
Ole Miss at Louisville (-4)
Georgia Tech (+10.5) at Oklahoma
Florida St (+4) at LSU
Kentucky at Clemson (-1)
Day 2
Alabama at UNC (-2)
Virginia (+15.5) at Florida
Auburn at Duke (-2)
Pitt (+1) at Miss St
Texas at NC St (+1)
Vandy at Virginia Tech (+3)

The big advantage the SEC has going in is there are 5 games where they will be double digit fav's. And Notre Dame is down +7 as well. ACC will not be a big favourite in any games.

The ACC will have to do well in the other 10 games which really could go either way (spreads between +4 and -2)

Day 1 could be rough, and they could make it more reasonable in Day 2.

 

[jncuse]

I'm not sure if I will keep tracking the detailed results, because I think the trends have been pretty well established and will be hard to change given that about 55-60% of OOC games have already been played including tournament season. Furthermore the NET, with 31 teams from the SEC (11), B10 (11), and B12 (9), and only 9 total from the ACC and Big East, pretty much showed what had been tracked to date.

I'm going to show the various tables I update the next few posts. but here are my key takeaways from OOC play.

1) SEC has clearly been the best conference and its not really debatable. Whether its eye test. quality wins, margins, head to head, they are comfortably ahead. They don't have many bad teams. Probably the best OOC by a conference in a long time.

2) If you focus on quality games and head to head, the B10 is clearly #2. That being said if you bring in margin which is the basis for NET, the B12 is right there with them,

3) Regarding the B12. The SEC leads the B12 by a large amount in all of the following : Overall Win%, Q1+Q2 (Win% and Margin), Q3 Margin. It leads by a lot in head to head play vs other conferences. But the B12 leads the SEC in two things. Margin against the bottom half of Q4 teams, and overall margin against Q4. Since 50% of the games so far are Q4, it allows the B12 to stay right in line with the B10 and not that far behind the SEC, and even farther ahead of the ACC As I mentioned before strategically the B12 is doing something fundamentally different than its peers when it plays Q4 games. All conferences play lots of them, but the B12 beats them by more and it helps them significantly in NET

4) Regarding the ACC - its a lost cause and I have beaten them to death above. We saw it in the NET today when so many programs came in sub 100. Its far behind the top 3 conferences in margin. In terms of wins not that far off from the B12 but behind.

5) Its also going to be a tough ride for the Big East... they also have a fair number of their 10 teams below 100.

6) I don't think the MWC will be a player for seeds like they were last year. Last year, when the NET was first released I saw an article today that they had 5 of the top 31 teams. This year they have 14, 32, 38, 60 and 66 as their top 5... a significant drop. Their bad teams are also worse.

Also, I had looked at their win-loss% in detail last year by quad, so I have comparables for them

This Year vs Last Year
Q1+Q2: 35% vs 53%
Q3: 63% vs 73%
Q4: 82% vs 84%

7) I think the SEC. B10, B12 are going to get 30 teams in the tournament total. They have 31 of the top 50 in NET right now, and the NET for these conferences will only grind upwards as the teams starting benefit from playing each other.

 

[Niastri]

I'm not sure if I will keep tracking the detailed results, because I think the trends have been pretty well established and will be hard to change given that about 55-60% of OOC games have already been played including tournament season. The big reason I tracked this is because I wanted to see where the ACC stood as its more relevant to our overall potential than our individual NET.

I'm going to show the various tables I update the next few posts. but here are my key takeaways from OOC play.

1) SEC has clearly been the best conference and its not really debatable. Whether its eye test. quality wins, margins, head to head, they are comfortably ahead. They don't have many bad teams. Probably the best OOC by a conference in a long time.

2) If you focus on quality games and head to head, the B10 is clearly #2. That being said if you bring in margin which is the basis for NET, the B12 is right there.

3) Regarding the B12. The SEC leads the B12 by a large amount in all of the following : Overall Win%, Q1+Q2 (Win% and Margin), Q3 Margin. It leads by a lot in head to head play vs other conferences. But the B12 leads the SEC in two things. Margin against the bottom half of Q4 teams, and overall margin against Q4. Since 50% of the games so far are Q4, it allows the B12 to stay right in line with the B10 and not that far behind the SEC, and even farther ahead of the ACC As I mentioned before strategically the B12 is doing something fundamentally different than its peers when it plays Q4 games. All conferences play lots of them, but the B12 beats them by more and it helps them significantly in NET

4) Regarding the ACC - its a lost cause and I have beaten them to death above. We saw it in the NET today when so many programs came in sub 100.

Its also going to be a tough ride for the Big East... they also have a fair number of their 10 teams below 100.

5) There are 31 teams from the SEC, B12, B10 in the top 50. Conferences are bigger than ever, but never seen 3 conferences take such a large piece of the pie. NET's will probably grind each other upwards come conference play, so I think these conferences might be getting 30 teams in the dance.

I hope you'll do one more of these after next week's games.

I understand it's a lot of work, but I've enjoyed your analysis of the ins and outs of the OOC play and how it effects the NET.

 

[jncuse]

I hope you'll do one more of these after next week's games.

I understand it's a lot of work, but I've enjoyed your analysis of the ins and outs of the OOC play and how it effects the NET.

I have all the tables up to the end of Sunday (yesterday). These are all auto-populated after I refresh a few pivot tables - so that is not where the effort is. So I'll certainly show those as of now.

 

[jncuse]

Summary Table up to December 1, 2024

Most conferences have similar sched's, except for the Big East who is an outlier as an easier schedule.

SEC clearly ahead in win% and margin.
B12 despite winning less games (mostly quality games) stays even with the B10. You will see why in the margin table in the next post.

ACC is behind in margin vs the BE 13.1 vs 10.2, but if you equate the schedules its closer to 1 point of difference. So the conferences are certainly in same tier.

Week 1-2 vs Week 3-4

Week 1-2 was really cupcake heavy. Week 3-4 was more of the pre-season tourneys so much more quality. Worth separating

The ACC hung closer to the pack in week 1-2. Pre-season tourney week did not go to well for them.

In week 3-4, it became clearer that the SEC and B10 to a lesser extent, had separated themselves.

In the first batch of games which were far easier games, the B12 was pretty much on par with the SEC in margin (18.9 vs 19.3). Now that the games got tougher, the SEC was far better (9.4 vs 15.6).

 

[jncuse]

Win % by Quad

I didn't show this table before as the sample of games for Q1, Q2 were small after the first few weeks.

Same story here. The SEC is well ahead of everybody else in quality games. Winning 67% of their Q1 and Q2 games, while the Big10 is next at 48%. The B12 is more in the same tier of the BE in quality games.

Excluding the MWC, the ACC is far behind in quality games. 31% vs the lowest of 41%.

The B12 does find a way to avoid bad losses.

Margin by Quad

This is the interesting that shows how the B12 hangs around at the top of the NET despite its quality games being suspect.

Note how far better the SEC is when games are tougher, but how the gap closes or swings the other way against cupcakes.
Q1 - 1.4 vs (6.2)
Q2 - 8.7 vs 1.5
Q3 - 19.2 vs 16.6
Q4Top - 23.5 vs 20.7
Q4 Bottom - 31.1 vs 33.2

Since both leagues have played 47% of their games against cupcakes, these Q4 games impact NET more than any other quad. It's why when you look at the overall number, the B12 is still close enough.

The B10 also gets a lot closer to the SEC when the games are easier, but its not quite as drastic.

But its fair to say that for the B12 its their dominance in these games that keeps them very relevant in NET. In fact if you look at Q1/Q2 games the B12 and the ACC are very similar in margins.

 

[jncuse]

Who plays the Cupcakes?

There was an impression last year that the B12 played lots more cupcakes, and they may have by a tad, but it wasn't much.

If there is an outlier in "easy" scheduling its the Big East. 61% of games are Q4, while the average is 51%.
Also a far lower % in Q1, although in line when you bring in the Q1 and Q2.

If anything the B12 along with the SEC have had the toughest schedules this year, but none of the 4 leagues are that much different. They all like their cupcakes. 51% of overall games are Q4, so these games really drive the NET fairly heavily.