Rank prediction thread

[PoppyHart]

Many teams have lost this week -- many to not so great opponents. Assuming no further surprises this weekend:

Current Top 25 Teams they Should Jumped (8 Teams)
#25 - Texas AM (We beat them)
#24 - Cincy (No losses but all cupcakes)
#22 - LSU (2 Losses This Week)
#21 - Oregon (See Cincy)
#20 - Wichita (2 Losses)
#18 - UConn (2 Losses)
#17 - Notre Dame (Lost to Monmouth)
#15 - Miami (Lost to Northeastern)
#14 - Cal (lost to Richmond)
#13 - Indiana (2 losses)
#11 - Arizona (Lost to Santa Clara)

Likely Jumped (3 Teams)
#24 - Cincy (No losses but all cupcakes)
#21 - Oregon (See Cincy)
#11 - Arizona (Lost to Santa Clara)

Maybe Jump
#19 - Vanderbilt (Only Loss to Kansas)

Doubt that we Jump:
#23 - Xavier (Undefeated and Assuming they win Tounrey this week)
#16 - Purdue (Stay Undefeated)
#10 -Gonzaga (Lost to a good Team, and hard to take a big fall from the Top 10)

Then we need to consider teams with votes outside of the top 26 who had really good weeks:
None of them had a last week -- Dayton could potentially beat Xavier and Iowa ... but if they beat Xavier we probably jump them.

So for sure #17 as of today (Pass 8 Teams), before we get to the weekend, and possibly as high as 14 as of today.

Arizona beat Santa Clara. Cal lost twice.

 

[jncuse]

Arizona beat Santa Clara. Cal lost twice.

thanks - your right they beat them by 2 points -- it felt like a loss but it wasn't. They could lose to Providence tonight, but they could potentially hold in that case.

Cal's one loss did them in either way - didn;t check to see if they has lost any more.

 

[KaiserUEO]

 

[tptcuse]

16

 

[Brooky03]

18

 

[cpatrocks]

Many teams have lost this week -- many to not so great opponents. Assuming no further surprises this weekend:

Current Top 25 Teams they Should Jumped (8 Teams)
#25 - Texas AM (We beat them)
#24 - Cincy (No losses but all cupcakes)
#22 - LSU (2 Losses This Week)
#21 - Oregon (See Cincy)
#20 - Wichita (2 Losses)
#18 - UConn (2 Losses)
#17 - Notre Dame (Lost to Monmouth)
#15 - Miami (Lost to Northeastern)
#14 - Cal (2 losses)
#13 - Indiana (2 losses)
#11 - Arizona (Lost to Santa Clara)

Likely Jumped (2 Teams)
#24 - Cincy (No losses but all cupcakes)
#21 - Oregon (See Cincy)

Maybe Jump
#19 - Vanderbilt (Only Loss to Kansas)

Doubt that we Jump:
#23 - Xavier (Undefeated and Assuming they win Tounrey this week)
#16 - Purdue (Stay Undefeated)
#10 -Gonzaga (Lost to a good Team, and hard to take a big fall from the Top 10)

Then we need to consider teams with votes outside of the top 26 who had really good weeks:
None of them had a last week -- Dayton could potentially beat Xavier and Iowa ... but if they beat Xavier we probably jump them.

So for sure #17 as of today (Pass 8 Teams), before we get to the weekend, and possibly as high as 14 as of today.

We can get a few more spots depending on what happens this weekend - but I don't see many upsets in those games.

EDIT - As corrected by POPPY

You can't use logic on the polls.

 

[Budley]

26. The NCAA will have a say before the poll is released.

 

[Stevenson]

12

 

[Syracusian]

I would be absolutely shocked if we weren't ranked at least 15th. I would probably say that we're going to be around 14.

Arizona lost last night too. As teams continue to lose, prior predictions will be hard to gauge.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Many teams have lost this week -- many to not so great opponents. Assuming no further surprises this weekend:

Current Top 25 Teams they Should Jumped (8 Teams)
#25 - Texas AM (We beat them)
#24 - Cincy (No losses but all cupcakes)
#22 - LSU (2 Losses This Week)
#21 - Oregon (See Cincy)
#20 - Wichita (2 Losses)
#18 - UConn (2 Losses)
#17 - Notre Dame (Lost to Monmouth)
#15 - Miami (Lost to Northeastern)
#14 - Cal (2 losses)
#13 - Indiana (2 losses)
#11 - Arizona (Lost to Santa Clara)

Likely Jumped (2 Teams)
#24 - Cincy (No losses but all cupcakes)
#21 - Oregon (See Cincy)

Maybe Jump
#19 - Vanderbilt (Only Loss to Kansas)

EDIT - As corrected by POPPY

Early in the year, "soft" wins don't hurt people like they do later in the year. Teams who were already ranked and remain undefeated are probably going to remain ranked above us. There is a "thing" that I've noticed in early season polls over the years - teams get grouped by how many losses they have, and if they are undefeated, teams don't usually leap over them unless they beat a highly ranked team and are undefeated too. So yes, we remain undefeated, but we didn't beat #10 Gonzaga at that tournament. That might have sprung us into the top 15 range. That's why I think we'll come in around 2oth.

 

[Flacusian]

In order to make an accurate guess you need to have an understanding of the things that the voters look at as a criteria for making their picks. Those things include but are not limited by:

1. Have there been any crop circle sightings over this weekend
2. Their personal belief in whether the moon landing was hoaxed
3. Was the voter part of the Kennedy Assassination Conspiracy?
4. How many times did JB touch his nose during the aTm game?
5. Pick a number between 1 and 25...(any number)
6. What phase is the Moon in the day of voting
7. Assign numbers to digits for each team i.e A=1, B=2 add the sum and then solve for X using the Quadratic equation.
8. Take into consideration what number would most upset the Cuse fanbase

Having carefully taken the above into account my prediction is:

14

 

[jncuse]

Early in the year, "soft" wins don't hurt people like they do later in the year. Teams who were already ranked and remain undefeated are probably going to remain ranked above us. There is a "thing" that I've noticed in early season polls over the years - teams get grouped by how many losses they have, and if they are undefeated, teams don't usually leap over them unless they beat a highly ranked team and are undefeated too. So yes, we remain undefeated, but we didn't beat #10 Gonzaga at that tournament. That might have sprung us into the top 15 range. That's why I think we'll come in around 2oth.

Agree with a few things you said (sort of). I had created a separate category for Cincy and Oregon... but I left them in both categories. So the group of 8 that we would certainly jump did not include them. Probably a logical approach.

My conclusion made sense based on what I was thinking, but not what I was writing as I failed to go back and correct a few things.

The reason I disagree that we will be 20th -- and following your logic that you presented -- there was indeed 8 teams between #13 and #25 that lost once. I figure we jump them so we are at least #17. Cincy, Oregon, and Vanderbilt are the question marks that put us somewhere between #14-#17.

 

[kirbivore]

#17

 

[Upstate]

I'll be happy just to be ranked. No great teams in College Basketball this year. Why not SU?