JeremyCuse
Renowned lacrosse analyst
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Busy week and day so I don't have time to get into my norma diatribe but a few general thoughts/musings on Sat.
This game will ultimately come down to two major issues
1. How does SU handle the 10 man
2. Can the Syracuse offense not get into a qtr + long funk
If SU is moderately successful at both they win, If the struggle with one they can still win but expect a pretty close game. If both are a mess they are in major trouble. For Syracuse with the Harvard loss this a must win game. A loss here would be a disaster for our tourney hopes. Not a fatal blow with what's left but pretty close.
Colgate's best comp is really to Harvard. Very good offense (Colgate doesn't have a King type but still very good), good in goal, but major issues at X and on defense. The main difference is Colgate is going to try and make this a helter skelter type of game and throw that 10 man every chance they can. SU overall against Gate last year played pretty well but did struggle turning it over and as we all recall it was a penalty mess for both sides.
Gate's offense is very balanced, their top 4 scorers have 41,39,37, and 22 between them and the 5th leading scorer is Huner Drouin with 19 who when on is a major problem. They can also score from the attack or midfield as their leading scorer Liam Connor is a middie and his brother Rory is the 2nd leading scorer and plays attack. Colgate loves to play fast and when they get a good look they will take it. If you like up and down lax this will be your game. This will be McCool's first real test post Harvard ( no shot against Hop) as Gate can really fill it up.
From an SU standpoint the matchups are pretty clear in my mind - Fig will cover Rory Connor the leading Gate attackmen as they match up size wise, Sr. Jack Turner has 28 goals on the year and at 6'4 is sure to draw Dwan. Ryan Favaro is the other attackmen and he will undoubtedly draw Grace. From a midfield perspective Liam Connor will absolutely get Caccamo and the LSM trio. Drouin can be an issue but he's been up and down ths year, I suspect SU will match Rice and English on him as much as possible. SU has to do a better job then they did against Harvard, again a massive matchup for McCool.
If you follow this board you know I have been mentioning for weeks/months that the 10 man can be SU's achilles heal and there gonan face if not the best probably one of the top 10 man rides in the country on Saturday. SU turned it over 20 times last year against the 10 man, well above its average. This year SU is #2 in the country in not turning the ball over, average only 12.5 a game. The concern is obviously that SU tends to get sloppy for long stretches and the turnovers could sky rocket in this game. Odierna has allegedly taken over the clearing game and SU has introduced some new wrinkles. Gonna be imperative SU shows it has some inkling of a plan on Saturday to address the 10 man and is hopefully also gogni to utilize the attack to support more. This is by far my biggest worry vs Colgate as Gait has shown little ability to adjust to the 10 man so far in his tenure here. SU did see it vs Utah in the 2nd half and while they did have their most turnovers so far in a game (18) they also showed the ability to score via a long pole goal. Again how SU handles the 10 man likely decides the outcome on Sat, if it's a chinese fire drill again ala UNC and 2nd half of Cornell last year, all bets are off.
Good news for SU is that they again should have a significant advantage at the X. Johnny Mullen is on a heater right now and Gate's two main FOGO's are both under 50% on the year. Kyle Rummel is their man FOGO and he's at 46%. The back up Johnny Hartzell is just under 48% but has only taken 73 draws to Rummels 174. SU should likely be 60%+ here, wing play will be important though as Gate will likely try and scrum it up as much as possible.
Form an offensive standpoint there appears to be an outside shot Thomson will play Sat. If he does it will be a big boost to SU as this is the kind of matchup he can thrive in. Gate plays a man/zone hybrid that can cause teams problems but is also susceptible to great ball movement and high IQ offenses. It's no coincidence that Joey and Hiltz both had massive games last year vs Gate, they are both extremely cerebral players and took advantage of Gate's defense and helter skelter style.
Gate's goalie LaCombe is a solid player, he's just under 50% on the year and is capable of standing on his head. The D in front of him has not been great at times though and has given up 19 goals to a UVA offense who has struggled all year and 18 to a Bucknell team that was on a major losing streak and struggled with Lafayette for 3+ quarters giving up 14 goals.
If you watch the UVA game, Gate's fast paced likely cost them the game despite losing by 10. UVA scored almost all of its goals in transition or by beating the 10 man. Again if you can avoid turning it over there will be a number of opportunities to score. IF Thomson is out again Deere needs another solid game. If its Hopkins part 2 Gait/March should give significant consideration to bumping Leo, Gate's defense is not Hopkins, we need to put up points and there's no time to mess around in a must win game. Big opportunity for the 2nd mid line as well. Played well vs Hop but struggled vs Manhattan though they were better in the 2nd half. Still not sold on McCarthy but between him Hottle and Cordes really would like to see 3+ overall points. Gate's going to struggle with secondary scorers (again assuming SU isn't turning the ball over wholesale). Keep an eye on English and Rhoa, they could be in for massive games.
SU has some clear advantages on paper in this game but again the Gate 10 man sticks out like a sore thumb. Need to limit turnovers to 15/16 or less. Enormous spot for McCool is a well, doesn't need to be McNaney out there but a repeat of Harvard can't happen either. If he's way off his game early again, staff has to make a quick change. English, Rice, and those involved in the clear game really need to be on their game, Gate's looking to cause havoc, and wants to turn this into a S show as much as possible. Last point, Gate gives as good as it gets with turnovers, they turn it over 18+ times a game, big opportunity there for SU. This game will tell you if this team/staff has leared from Harvard.
This game will ultimately come down to two major issues
1. How does SU handle the 10 man
2. Can the Syracuse offense not get into a qtr + long funk
If SU is moderately successful at both they win, If the struggle with one they can still win but expect a pretty close game. If both are a mess they are in major trouble. For Syracuse with the Harvard loss this a must win game. A loss here would be a disaster for our tourney hopes. Not a fatal blow with what's left but pretty close.
Colgate's best comp is really to Harvard. Very good offense (Colgate doesn't have a King type but still very good), good in goal, but major issues at X and on defense. The main difference is Colgate is going to try and make this a helter skelter type of game and throw that 10 man every chance they can. SU overall against Gate last year played pretty well but did struggle turning it over and as we all recall it was a penalty mess for both sides.
Gate's offense is very balanced, their top 4 scorers have 41,39,37, and 22 between them and the 5th leading scorer is Huner Drouin with 19 who when on is a major problem. They can also score from the attack or midfield as their leading scorer Liam Connor is a middie and his brother Rory is the 2nd leading scorer and plays attack. Colgate loves to play fast and when they get a good look they will take it. If you like up and down lax this will be your game. This will be McCool's first real test post Harvard ( no shot against Hop) as Gate can really fill it up.
From an SU standpoint the matchups are pretty clear in my mind - Fig will cover Rory Connor the leading Gate attackmen as they match up size wise, Sr. Jack Turner has 28 goals on the year and at 6'4 is sure to draw Dwan. Ryan Favaro is the other attackmen and he will undoubtedly draw Grace. From a midfield perspective Liam Connor will absolutely get Caccamo and the LSM trio. Drouin can be an issue but he's been up and down ths year, I suspect SU will match Rice and English on him as much as possible. SU has to do a better job then they did against Harvard, again a massive matchup for McCool.
If you follow this board you know I have been mentioning for weeks/months that the 10 man can be SU's achilles heal and there gonan face if not the best probably one of the top 10 man rides in the country on Saturday. SU turned it over 20 times last year against the 10 man, well above its average. This year SU is #2 in the country in not turning the ball over, average only 12.5 a game. The concern is obviously that SU tends to get sloppy for long stretches and the turnovers could sky rocket in this game. Odierna has allegedly taken over the clearing game and SU has introduced some new wrinkles. Gonna be imperative SU shows it has some inkling of a plan on Saturday to address the 10 man and is hopefully also gogni to utilize the attack to support more. This is by far my biggest worry vs Colgate as Gait has shown little ability to adjust to the 10 man so far in his tenure here. SU did see it vs Utah in the 2nd half and while they did have their most turnovers so far in a game (18) they also showed the ability to score via a long pole goal. Again how SU handles the 10 man likely decides the outcome on Sat, if it's a chinese fire drill again ala UNC and 2nd half of Cornell last year, all bets are off.
Good news for SU is that they again should have a significant advantage at the X. Johnny Mullen is on a heater right now and Gate's two main FOGO's are both under 50% on the year. Kyle Rummel is their man FOGO and he's at 46%. The back up Johnny Hartzell is just under 48% but has only taken 73 draws to Rummels 174. SU should likely be 60%+ here, wing play will be important though as Gate will likely try and scrum it up as much as possible.
Form an offensive standpoint there appears to be an outside shot Thomson will play Sat. If he does it will be a big boost to SU as this is the kind of matchup he can thrive in. Gate plays a man/zone hybrid that can cause teams problems but is also susceptible to great ball movement and high IQ offenses. It's no coincidence that Joey and Hiltz both had massive games last year vs Gate, they are both extremely cerebral players and took advantage of Gate's defense and helter skelter style.
Gate's goalie LaCombe is a solid player, he's just under 50% on the year and is capable of standing on his head. The D in front of him has not been great at times though and has given up 19 goals to a UVA offense who has struggled all year and 18 to a Bucknell team that was on a major losing streak and struggled with Lafayette for 3+ quarters giving up 14 goals.
If you watch the UVA game, Gate's fast paced likely cost them the game despite losing by 10. UVA scored almost all of its goals in transition or by beating the 10 man. Again if you can avoid turning it over there will be a number of opportunities to score. IF Thomson is out again Deere needs another solid game. If its Hopkins part 2 Gait/March should give significant consideration to bumping Leo, Gate's defense is not Hopkins, we need to put up points and there's no time to mess around in a must win game. Big opportunity for the 2nd mid line as well. Played well vs Hop but struggled vs Manhattan though they were better in the 2nd half. Still not sold on McCarthy but between him Hottle and Cordes really would like to see 3+ overall points. Gate's going to struggle with secondary scorers (again assuming SU isn't turning the ball over wholesale). Keep an eye on English and Rhoa, they could be in for massive games.
SU has some clear advantages on paper in this game but again the Gate 10 man sticks out like a sore thumb. Need to limit turnovers to 15/16 or less. Enormous spot for McCool is a well, doesn't need to be McNaney out there but a repeat of Harvard can't happen either. If he's way off his game early again, staff has to make a quick change. English, Rice, and those involved in the clear game really need to be on their game, Gate's looking to cause havoc, and wants to turn this into a S show as much as possible. Last point, Gate gives as good as it gets with turnovers, they turn it over 18+ times a game, big opportunity there for SU. This game will tell you if this team/staff has leared from Harvard.
